⚠ Capital Expenditure Is Not OptionalHigh threat

Dino Polska (DNP) — threat to the moat

With like-for-like near zero, the moment Dino stops building is the moment it stops growing.

Dino's revenue growth and Dino's capital expenditure are the same number viewed from two ends.

Where the June 2026 quarter's growth came from (%)+10,5%Revenue growth+0,3%Like-for-like growthThe 10,2-point gap is 341 stores that did not exist twelve months earlier.
Stop building and revenue growth goes to roughly where like-for-like already is.

In 2025 the company opened 345 stores and spent 2 129,3 million złoty of capital12. Revenue rose 14,9%3. In the second quarter of 2026, with 86 more stores opened and the network at 3,176, like-for-like sales grew 0,3%4. Almost all of the growth in that quarter came from shops that did not exist a year earlier.

That is a structurally different business from one whose existing stores are compounding. A retailer with rising like-for-like can slow its building and still grow; its capital expenditure is discretionary. A retailer whose like-for-like is near zero cannot: the moment it stops building, revenue growth goes to roughly the same place its like-for-like is.

The spending is also accelerating rather than levelling off: capital expenditure rose 38% in 20255, faster than the store count, the sales area or the revenue it produced.

This does not make the model bad. It makes it conditional on there being somewhere left to build, and on each new store earning what the last one did.

Watch the two series together — store openings and like-for-like. Openings falling while like-for-like stays near zero is the combination that ends the growth story, and neither number alone would tell you.

References
  1. ReportedIn 2025 the company opened 345 stores and spent 2 129,3 million złoty of capital.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 3,4, growth strategy (345 stores opened in 2025, 22% more than the prior year and ahead of target, the intention to increase density in existing areas as well as expand into new regions, and the process for securing new sites) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIn 2025 the company opened 345 stores and spent 2 129,3 million złoty of capital.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 3,4, growth strategy (345 stores opened in 2025, 22% more than the prior year and ahead of target, the intention to increase density in existing areas as well as expand into new regions, and the process for securing new sites) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedRevenue rose 14,9%.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Section 4,1-4,3, results of operations (sales revenue of 33 634,2m złoty up 14,9%, gross profit and the 23,5% gross margin, the cost lines including employee benefits up 21,2% and depreciation up 23,4%, EBITDA, and like-for-like growth of 4,4%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIn the second quarter of 2026, with 86 more stores opened and the network at 3,176, like-for-like sales grew 0,3%.
    Dino Polska Management Report for the first half of 2026 - 3 176 stores at 30 June 2026 (341 more than a year earlier), 86 openings in the second quarter, revenue of 9 531,4m złoty up 10,5%, like-for-like growth of 0,3% in the quarter and 2,2% for the half, and the EBITDA margin of 6,98% against 7,54% — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe spending is also accelerating rather than levelling off: capital expenditure rose 38% in 2025, faster than the store count, the sales area or the revenue it produced.
    Dino Polska Management Board's Activity Report for 2025 - Sections 4,4-4,10, capital expenditure, financing and dividend policy (capital expenditure of 2 129,3m złoty up 38%, 7,7bn reinvested over five years, operating cash flow of 2 697,4m, negative net debt of 199,5m, bank loans, and the decision not to recommend a dividend) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026