⚠ An Order Book Written by WarsModerate threat

RTX (RTX) — threat to the moat

A large part of Raytheon's order surge replaces missiles fired in wars, demand that shrinks when the fighting stops.

Much of Raytheon's surge comes from missiles that were fired. The Patriot awards for Ukraine, $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 20261, replace interceptors used in a war. Allied orders more than doubled in the first half2 partly because the threat became visible.

Raytheon book-to-bill2.42Q2 20261.77Rolling 12 monthsRTX Q2 2026 earnings call
Well above one, for now.

Replenishment is real demand, and stockpiles that were run down will take years to rebuild. But it is demand with an end point. When a conflict ends, the urgency fades, budgets move elsewhere, and the book-to-bill that reached 2.42 in the second quarter3 returns toward one.

Raytheon's backlog now depends more on foreign customers: 48% of it was international in June 2026, up four points in a year4. Foreign demand is less predictable than the U.S. budget and more exposed to politics and export rules.

The U.S. customer is also replenishing. The second-quarter 2026 GEM-T bookings included RTX's first domestic GEM-T production order in more than thirty years5, which means the U.S. Army is rebuilding its own stock rather than only supplying allies. That demand should outlast any single conflict, but it too is set by how many interceptors are fired.

The quarterly book-to-bill is noisy; the rolling twelve-month figure, 1.776, is the steadier measure. If it falls below 1.2 while no new conflict is under way, the surge will have been replenishment rather than a permanently larger market.

References
  1. ReportedThe Patriot awards for Ukraine, $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2026, replace interceptors used in a war.
    RTX Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog of $289 billion ($170 billion commercial, $119 billion defence), remaining performance obligations, the $0.4 billion powder-metal accrual, the Blue Canyon Technologies sale, Patriot awards and the remaining repurchase authority. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAllied orders more than doubled in the first half partly because the threat became visible.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - commercial: GTF fleet, maintenance output, aftermarket, orders, Collins and the outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedWhen a conflict ends, the urgency fades, budgets move elsewhere, and the book-to-bill that reached 2.42 in the second quarter returns toward one.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRaytheon's backlog now depends more on foreign customers: 48% of it was international in June 2026, up four points in a year.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe second-quarter 2026 GEM-T bookings included RTX's first domestic GEM-T production order in more than thirty years, which means the U.S. Army is rebuilding its own stock rather than only supplying allies.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe quarterly book-to-bill is noisy; the rolling twelve-month figure, 1.77, is the steadier measure.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026