✦ A $1.1 Trillion Budget and Five Framework AgreementsNarrow moat

RTX (RTX) — the future bets

A $1.1 trillion budget request and five munitions frameworks are RTX's biggest defence opportunity, and none of it is yet in the backlog.

RTX's defence growth over the next decade depends on Washington's budget. The 2027 base budget request is $1.1 trillion, "a roughly 25% increase year-over-year", with meaningful increases for RTX priorities including Tomahawk, LTAMDS and Standard Missile1. Calio said there is "bipartisan support for increased munitions"2.

RTX defence bookings ($bn)402021472022512023612024612025RTX Forms 10-K FY2022-FY2025
Bookings up half in four years.

The contracts are not signed yet. RTX is working to convert five framework agreements with the Department of War into definitive contracts, which it said carry "significant demand over the next 10 years"3. They are not in the backlog.

The backlog that is signed is already large. Defence backlog was $119 billion in June 2026, up from $78 billion at the end of 202345, a rise of about 53%6.

The bet requires capacity as well as money. Raytheon more than doubled its output of critical munitions in the first half of 20267, and further increases need suppliers of rocket motors, energetics and electronics that also serve other primes.

The quarter already showed the pipeline filling. RTX's defence bookings were about $23 billion in the second quarter of 2026 against $12 billion a year earlier, and about $37 billion in the first half against $21 billion8. Those are firm orders; the frameworks would come on top.

A budget request is not an appropriation, and an appropriation is not an award. Count the frameworks as they convert; if the defence backlog passes $130 billion within a year of June 2026, they are becoming real orders.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Defence backlog $78bn (2023) to $119bn (June 2026).

The number that tests this moat
Reported
RTX defence backlog, latest quarter
$119bn (June 2026)

Frameworks turning into contracts; passing $130bn within a year would mean the budget is becoming orders.

Source: RTX Form 10-Q, Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe 2027 base budget request is $1.1 trillion, "a roughly 25% increase year-over-year", with meaningful increases for RTX priorities including Tomahawk, LTAMDS and Standard Missile.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedCalio said there is "bipartisan support for increased munitions".
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedRTX is working to convert five framework agreements with the Department of War into definitive contracts, which it said carry "significant demand over the next 10 years".
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDefence backlog was $119 billion in June 2026, up from $78 billion at the end of 2023, a rise of about 53%.
    RTX Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - backlog of $289 billion ($170 billion commercial, $119 billion defence), remaining performance obligations, the $0.4 billion powder-metal accrual, the Blue Canyon Technologies sale, Patriot awards and the remaining repurchase authority. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedDefence backlog was $119 billion in June 2026, up from $78 billion at the end of 2023, a rise of about 53%.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2024 - segment results for 2022-2024, backlog of $218 billion and the powder-metal customer-compensation accrual. — FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcDefence backlog was $119 billion in June 2026, up from $78 billion at the end of 2023, a rise of about 53%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from RTX's Forms 10-K FY2023-FY2025, Form 10-Q Q2 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings call. GTF aircraft: more than 2,600 against more than 1,700, about 900 more, 2,600 / 1,700 - 1 = 53%; operators 70 to over 90. Raytheon backlog 86 / 52 - 1 = 65% (December 2023 to June 2026); 86 / 28.043 = 3.1 years of 2025 sales. Total backlog 289 / 93.5 = 3.1 years of trailing sales. Pratt & Whitney share of backlog 151 / 268 = 56% (December 2025). Commercial share of backlog 170 / 289 = 59%; defence 119 / 289 = 41% (June 2026). Defence backlog 119 / 78 - 1 = 53% (December 2023 to June 2026). Government share of 2025 net sales (33,279 + 6,702 + 6,123) / 88,603 = 46,104 / 88,603 = 52%; foreign governments 6,702 + 6,123 = 12,825, 12,825 / 88,603 = 14.5%. — 2023-2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in RTX's Forms 10-K and 10-Q, earnings releases, earnings call and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  7. ReportedRaytheon more than doubled its output of critical munitions in the first half of 2026, and further increases need suppliers of rocket motors, energetics and electronics that also serve other primes.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedRTX's defence bookings were about $23 billion in the second quarter of 2026 against $12 billion a year earlier, and about $37 billion in the first half against $21 billion.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool) - Raytheon bookings and book-to-bill, GTF aircraft-on-ground and MRO output, munitions output, framework agreements, the defence budget request, GTF Advantage, Collins margin plans and segment outlook - defence: Raytheon bookings, book-to-bill and backlog, munitions output, framework agreements and the budget request. — Q2 2026 · publ. 24 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026