⚠ The Airframers Set the PaceModerate threat

RTX (RTX) — threat to the moat

Collins can only ship original equipment as fast as Boeing and Airbus build aircraft, and its commercial OE sales swing with their lines.

Collins's original-equipment sales depend on production rates it does not set. RTX lists customer production volumes among the forward-looking risks in its earnings releases1, and in 2025 it described unfavourable commercial original-equipment mix as an offset to Collins's profit2.

Collins sales growth by type, Q2 2026 (%)+26%Commercial OE+10%Aftermarket+7%DefenceRTX Q2 2026 earnings release
OE the fastest, and the most volatile.

When an airframer slows a line, every supplier waits. Parts already built sit in inventory, and the aftermarket that would have followed those aircraft is postponed. The reverse is also true: Collins's commercial original-equipment sales rose 26% in the second quarter of 20263 as deliveries picked up.

Collins has more balance than a supplier to one airframer, with Boeing and Airbus together at 16% of its sales4. But original equipment is where new positions are created, and those positions become the aftermarket of the 2040s.

The 2024 figures show how quickly OEM can turn. That year Collins's narrowbody original-equipment volume fell, while widebody and regional volume rose5. A supplier on every aircraft is protected from any single model's troubles but not from an industry-wide slowdown in narrowbody output.

The number to follow is Collins's commercial original-equipment growth. After a 26% rise in the latest quarter6, a return to decline while airlines report record demand would mean the airframers' problems are setting Collins's pace again.

References
  1. ReportedRTX lists customer production volumes among the forward-looking risks in its earnings releases, and in 2025 it described unfavourable commercial original-equipment mix as an offset to Collins's profit.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedRTX lists customer production volumes among the forward-looking risks in its earnings releases, and in 2025 it described unfavourable commercial original-equipment mix as an offset to Collins's profit.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 segment review and Note 20: net sales and operating profit by segment for 2023-2025, organic sales drivers (commercial aftermarket, OEM, military), sales by customer type, products and services, segment assets, capital expenditure and research and development - Collins Aerospace: segment sales, operating profit, organic drivers, customer types, assets and capital expenditure. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe reverse is also true: Collins's commercial original-equipment sales rose 26% in the second quarter of 2026 as deliveries picked up.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedCollins has more balance than a supplier to one airframer, with Boeing and Airbus together at 16% of its sales.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - customers and backlog: sales to the U.S. government (38%, 40%, 46% of net sales in 2025-2023), Airbus (about 14%, 14%, 17% before discounts and incentives; 29%, 31%, 48% of Pratt & Whitney sales), Boeing and Airbus at 16% of Collins sales, international sales of 47%, and total, commercial and defence backlog with remaining performance obligations. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThat year Collins's narrowbody original-equipment volume fell, while widebody and regional volume rose.
    RTX Form 10-K for fiscal 2025 - Item 7 segment review and Note 20: net sales and operating profit by segment for 2023-2025, organic sales drivers (commercial aftermarket, OEM, military), sales by customer type, products and services, segment assets, capital expenditure and research and development - Collins Aerospace: segment sales, operating profit, organic drivers, customer types, assets and capital expenditure. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. 6 February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAfter a 26% rise in the latest quarter, a return to decline while airlines report record demand would mean the airframers' problems are setting Collins's pace again.
    RTX second-quarter 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99 - sales of $24.7 billion, segment results, cash flow, balance sheet and raised 2026 outlook. — Q2 2026 · publ. 23 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 28, 2026