◆ What the Market Isn't Pricing In

GPW (GPW) — the variant view

The cheap-monopoly thesis played out, from about 11 to 19 times earnings in one boom; the price now assumes margins the last cycle did not keep.

📈 GPW valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

For years GPW was a value puzzle: a monopoly exchange trading at 10 to 12 times earnings with dividend yields of 5% to 7,5%1. The puzzle has been solved by the market. The shares went from 40,45 złoty at the end of 2024 to 99,00 złoty in September 2026, about 19 times earnings23.

GPW price-to-earnings ratio10,4x202110,3x202211,4x202311,7x202414,0x202519,3xSep 2026GPW Management Board report 2025 (year end); stockanalysis.com
The multiple rose by two-thirds in 21 months, on boom-year earnings.

What the market may be missing now runs in the other direction. The price assumes the boom's margins hold, and the filings show they did not in the last cycle: the EBITDA margin was 61,1% in 2017 and 26,9% in 20244. The 43,1% of the first half of 20265 is a boom margin on a larger cost base.

There is also something it may be under-pricing. GPW owns a third of KDPW, whose profits contributed 44,4 million złoty in 20256, 22% of GPW's net profit7, and the depository earns fees on the value of securities held, which rises with the market8. And S&P's reclassification of Poland as a developed market from September 20279 widens the pool of funds that can own Polish shares.

Analysts' average price target is 75,57 złoty, 24% below the price10. The verdict is that GPW has moved from cheap monopoly to fully priced one. The number to watch is the EBITDA margin through the next year in which turnover falls.

References
  1. ReportedFor years GPW was a value puzzle: a monopoly exchange trading at 10 to 12 times earnings with dividend yields of 5% to 7,5%.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe shares went from 40,45 złoty at the end of 2024 to 99,00 złoty in September 2026, about 19 times earnings.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - GPW shares and shareholders: EPS, dividend per share 2021-2025, dividend yield, P/E, share price, payout rates, State Treasury 35,01% of shares and 51,80% of votes — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. Third-party estimateThe shares went from 40,45 złoty at the end of 2024 to 99,00 złoty in September 2026, about 19 times earnings.
    stockanalysis.com, WSE:GPW - price 99,00 złoty, market value 4,16bn zł, P/E 19,31, forward P/E 16,75, dividend yield 3,43%, revenue TTM 599,70m zł, average price target 75,57 złoty — 23 September 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe price assumes the boom's margins hold, and the filings show they did not in the last cycle: the EBITDA margin was 61,1% in 2017 and 26,9% in 2024.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe 43,1% of the first half of 2026 is a boom margin on a larger cost base.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedGPW owns a third of KDPW, whose profits contributed 44,4 million złoty in 2025, 22% of GPW's net profit, and the depository earns fees on the value of securities held, which rises with the market.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. Moat Explorer calcGPW owns a third of KDPW, whose profits contributed 44,4 million złoty in 2025, 22% of GPW's net profit, and the depository earns fees on the value of securities held, which rises with the market.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed figures — 2016 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Growth rates and shares from the filed series; State Treasury dividend = 14 695 470 shares x 3,40 złoty; KDPW share of net profit = 44,4 / 197,6; WATS budget / 2025 revenue; revenue per employee = TTM revenue / FTEs
  8. ReportedGPW owns a third of KDPW, whose profits contributed 44,4 million złoty in 2025, 22% of GPW's net profit, and the depository earns fees on the value of securities held, which rises with the market.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedAnd S&P's reclassification of Poland as a developed market from September 2027 widens the pool of funds that can own Polish shares.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  10. Third-party estimateAnalysts' average price target is 75,57 złoty, 24% below the price.
    stockanalysis.com, WSE:GPW - price 99,00 złoty, market value 4,16bn zł, P/E 19,31, forward P/E 16,75, dividend yield 3,43%, revenue TTM 599,70m zł, average price target 75,57 złoty — 23 September 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026