⚠ Operating Leverage Works in ReverseModerate threat

GPW (GPW) — threat to the moat

The magic of the boom year becomes the drag of the bust year, on the same cost base.

Operating leverage is symmetric, and GPW's own history shows the downside. In 2022 revenue fell 4,5% and operating profit fell 27,4%, from 179,9 million złoty to 130,6 million12. In 2024 revenue rose 4,5% and operating profit still fell 26,9%, to 93,5 million, as costs and write-downs outran it34.

Change in operating profit (%)2019-7,3%2021-5,0%2022-27,4%2023-2,0%2024-26,9%2025+92,3%GPW Basic financial data workbook; year on year
Five falls in seven years, two of them over a quarter, before the 2025 rebound.

The second quarter of 2026 gave a small preview. Revenue rose 7,9%, operating costs 10,2%, and adjusted net profit only 1,1%5. A slower quarter for turnover would have turned that into a decline.

The cost base does not flex down easily, because most of it is staff and IT. Salaries and other employee costs were half of operating expenses in the first half of 20266, and the new trading system will add depreciation once it goes live7.

The number to watch is operating profit in the first year turnover falls. 2022 is the precedent: a 4,5% revenue decline and a 27,4% fall in operating profit.

References
  1. ReportedIn 2022 revenue fell 4,5% and operating profit fell 27,4%, from 179,9 million złoty to 130,6 million.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcIn 2022 revenue fell 4,5% and operating profit fell 27,4%, from 179,9 million złoty to 130,6 million.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed figures — 2016 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Growth rates and shares from the filed series; State Treasury dividend = 14 695 470 shares x 3,40 złoty; KDPW share of net profit = 44,4 / 197,6; WATS budget / 2025 revenue; revenue per employee = TTM revenue / FTEs
  3. ReportedIn 2024 revenue rose 4,5% and operating profit still fell 26,9%, to 93,5 million, as costs and write-downs outran it.
    GPW Group Basic financial data workbook (to Q2 2026) - consolidated income statement 2007-2025, EBITDA and margins, employee and external-service costs — 2015-2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcIn 2024 revenue rose 4,5% and operating profit still fell 26,9%, to 93,5 million, as costs and write-downs outran it.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed figures — 2016 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Growth rates and shares from the filed series; State Treasury dividend = 14 695 470 shares x 3,40 złoty; KDPW share of net profit = 44,4 / 197,6; WATS budget / 2025 revenue; revenue per employee = TTM revenue / FTEs
  5. ReportedRevenue rose 7,9%, operating costs 10,2%, and adjusted net profit only 1,1%.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSalaries and other employee costs were half of operating expenses in the first half of 2026, and the new trading system will add depreciation once it goes live.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedSalaries and other employee costs were half of operating expenses in the first half of 2026, and the new trading system will add depreciation once it goes live.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026