✦ TGE & the Energy BoomNarrow moat

The part of GPW that is currently working hardest has nothing to do with equities. TGE, the Polish Power Exchange, traded nearly 15,8 terawatt-hours of electricity in March 2026 — up 34,4% year on year and the highest monthly volume since December 2021 — while natural gas set records of its own, with a spot volume above 7,4 terawatt-hours in January 2026 and an April figure up 81,8% on the prior year, the best April since the market began¹.

This is the diversification that makes GPW more than a small-country stock exchange. Poland's energy transition — coal retiring, renewables and gas arriving, cross-border interconnection deepening — creates exactly the volatility and hedging demand that commodity exchanges monetise, and TGE holds a monopoly position in it much like the equity business does. It is also counter-cyclical in a useful way: energy trades regardless of whether anyone wants to buy shares.

The honest qualifiers are two. Commodity volumes are genuinely volatile — the comparisons above are flattered by weak prior years — and the business carries regulatory risk, since obligations to trade electricity on the exchange are set by government and have been changed before. Watch the commodity segment's share of group revenue over several years rather than several months, and watch Warsaw's legislative calendar. A monopoly granted by statute can be narrowed by statute.