Regional & CEE AmbitionsThin moat

GPW (GPW) — moat facet

Two decades of regional ambition produced one acquisition, in Armenia, now growing fast and 6% of revenue.

GPW has long wanted to be a regional exchange group rather than a national one, and it has made one foreign acquisition to show for it: the Armenia Securities Exchange, in which it holds 72,2%, together with the Central Depository of Armenia1.

Armenia Securities Exchange revenue (zl m)23,5202321,1202432,5202511,0H1 202524,2H1 2026GPW Management Board report 2025; GPW H1 2026 interim report; GPW holds 72,2%
The one foreign exchange GPW owns more than doubled its revenue in a half.

The Armenian business is small and growing fast. Its revenue was 23,5 million złoty in 2023, 21,1 million in 2024 and 32,5 million in 20252, and 24,2 million in the first half of 2026 alone, up 118,8%3, mostly from depository fees after higher rates took effect in July 20254. Its EBITDA was 8,3 million złoty in the half5.

It is also a long way from Central and Eastern Europe. The regional consolidation GPW has discussed for two decades, with neighbouring exchanges in the EU, has not happened, and Armenia is 5,9% of group revenue6.

So the regional ambition has produced one working asset outside the core market, bought cheaply and growing, rather than the hub that was described. The number to watch is Armenia's share of revenue; if it passes a tenth, the acquisition has become a real line rather than a footnote.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Armenia Securities Exchange revenue rose 118,8% to 24,2m zł in H1 2026 on higher depository fees.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Armenia Securities Exchange revenue, H1 2026
24,2m zł, +118,8%

The one foreign exchange GPW owns (72,2%) is growing fast from a small base; its share of revenue is the test of regional ambition.

Source: GPW H1 2026 interim report ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
Cross-Border Exchange Deals Rarely Happen
National pride and politics have blocked nearly every regional exchange merger ever proposed.
References
  1. ReportedGPW has long wanted to be a regional exchange group rather than a national one, and it has made one foreign acquisition to show for it: the Armenia Securities Exchange, in which it holds 72,2%, together with the Central Depository of Armenia.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIts revenue was 23,5 million złoty in 2023, 21,1 million in 2024 and 32,5 million in 2025, and 24,2 million in the first half of 2026 alone, up 118,8%, mostly from depository fees after higher rates took effect in July 2025.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIts revenue was 23,5 million złoty in 2023, 21,1 million in 2024 and 32,5 million in 2025, and 24,2 million in the first half of 2026 alone, up 118,8%, mostly from depository fees after higher rates took effect in July 2025.
    GPW Group interim report for H1 2026 - revenue by line, turnover, listings, TGE volumes, operating expenses, FTEs, ratios, dividend, associates (KDPW 33,33%) — H1 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts revenue was 23,5 million złoty in 2023, 21,1 million in 2024 and 32,5 million in 2025, and 24,2 million in the first half of 2026 alone, up 118,8%, mostly from depository fees after higher rates took effect in July 2025.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIts EBITDA was 8,3 million złoty in the half.
    GPW Q2 and H1 2026 financial results presentation - adjusted results, cash flow, liquid assets, WATS budget, listed-company count 2020-2026, OKI and S&P reclassification, AMX — Q2 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcThe regional consolidation GPW has discussed for two decades, with neighbouring exchanges in the EU, has not happened, and Armenia is 5,9% of group revenue.
    Moat Explorer calculations from GPW's filed figures — 2016 - H1 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Growth rates and shares from the filed series; State Treasury dividend = 14 695 470 shares x 3,40 złoty; KDPW share of net profit = 44,4 / 197,6; WATS budget / 2025 revenue; revenue per employee = TTM revenue / FTEs
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026