The Energy Companies the Law Sent to TGEThin moat

GPW (GPW) — moat facet

Without an obligation, TGE's electricity forwards fell to their lowest since 2009; a draft would bring the obligation back at 80%.

TGE's customer base was for most of its life written by statute. Poland introduced an exchange obligation for electricity in 2010, widened it until it formally covered all generated electricity by 2018, and repealed it with effect from 20231. 2025 was the third year in a row without it2.

Revenue from electricity trading on TGE (zl m)14,4201510,220168,8201718,4201816,3201918,9202019,1202113,4202229,5202327,7202425,32025GPW Basic financial data workbook
Electricity revenue peaked in 2023 and has fallen in each year without the obligation.

The natural experiment has a result. Electricity turnover on TGE fell from 225,2 terawatt-hours in 2021 to 119,5 in 2025, and forward volume from 188,9 to 71,3, the lowest since 20093. Spot volume held up, at 48,2 terawatt-hours, about 30% of domestic consumption4. Revenue from electricity trading was 25,3 million złoty in 2025, against 29,5 million in 20235.

So when nothing compelled producers to be there, a large part of the forward market left, and the spot market stayed. The government's draft amendment would reinstate the electricity obligation at 80% and raise the gas obligation from 55% to 85%6.

Watch the forward volume. If the obligation returns, it will jump, and TGE will again not know how much of its electricity business is voluntary.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Electricity forwards fell to 71,3 TWh in 2025 without an obligation; a draft would reinstate it at 80%, restoring volume by statute.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Electricity forward volume on TGE
71,3 TWh in 2025, the lowest since 2009

Forwards fell with the obligation; a draft reinstating it at 80% would show up here first.

Source: GPW 2025 Management Board report ↗
References
  1. ReportedPoland introduced an exchange obligation for electricity in 2010, widened it until it formally covered all generated electricity by 2018, and repealed it with effect from 2023.
    Bird & Bird, 'Poland to reintroduce mandatory energy exchange sales' — the exchange obligation for electricity was in force from 2010 and expanded until full coverage of Polish generation was reached in 2018; it was gradually relaxed and completely repealed in 2022, effective from 2023; on 19 August 2025 the Council of Ministers published the principles of an amendment to the Energy Law (document UD284) reinstating the obligation at a level of 55%, with exemptions for direct-line supply, renewable installations below 10 MW, other units up to 50 MW, high-efficiency cogeneration, on-site consumption, system operators' statutory duties and registered renewable contracts — 2010 – 2026 · publ. 2025 · source ↗
  2. Reported2025 was the third year in a row without it.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedElectricity turnover on TGE fell from 225,2 terawatt-hours in 2021 to 119,5 in 2025, and forward volume from 188,9 to 71,3, the lowest since 2009.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedSpot volume held up, at 48,2 terawatt-hours, about 30% of domestic consumption.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedRevenue from electricity trading was 25,3 million złoty in 2025, against 29,5 million in 2023.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - financial review: revenue by line 2023-2025, financial and commodity market revenue, operating expenses, FTEs, capital expenditure, impairments — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe government's draft amendment would reinstate the electricity obligation at 80% and raise the gas obligation from 55% to 85%.
    GPW Management Board report on 2025 - TGE: electricity and gas volumes 2021-2025, share of consumption, certificates of origin and guarantees of origin, the draft reinstatement of the exchange obligation (80% electricity, gas 55% to 85%) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026