⚠ Advisory Revenue Is the First Thing CutLow threat

Visa (V) — threat to the moat

Visa is selling advice to the counterparty it is simultaneously bidding against on incentive terms.

Consulting spend is discretionary and the client is a bank managing its own cost base against its own margin pressure. In a downturn, or in the run-up to a renewal where the bank wants leverage, advisory is the easiest line for the customer to pause and the easiest concession for Visa to offer.

Other revenue ($bn)$2.48bnFY2023$3.20bnFY2024$4.05bnFY2025$4.03bn9M FY2026Visa Form 10-K FY2025 and Visa Form 10-Q, quarter to 30 June 2026; nine months up 40%
Nine months of 2026 nearly matched all of 2025: a line that has not yet met a downturn.

There is also the structural awkwardness above: the adviser and the counterparty are the same company. A bank that has just lost an incentive negotiation is not an enthusiastic buyer of that network's consulting, and a bank that is about to enter one has an obvious reason to signal otherwise.

Growth of 27% in fiscal 20251 and then 45% in the June 2026 quarter2 is real, and it is coming off a small base inside a line that also contains other things. Watch whether it holds when issuer economics tighten.

References
  1. ReportedGrowth of 27% in fiscal 2025
    Visa Inc. Form 10-K for FY2025, Item 7 Management's Discussion and Analysis — net revenue of $40,000 million, up 11%, comprising service revenue $17,539 million (+9%), data processing revenue $19,993 million (+13%), international transaction revenue $14,166 million (+12%) and other revenue $4,053 million (+27%), less client incentives of $15,751 million (+14%); operating expenses of $16,006 million (+30%) and operating income of $23,994 million; nominal payments volume of $13,894 billion and total nominal volume including cash of $16,383 billion for the twelve months ended 30 June 2025; 257,545 million processed transactions, up 10%; payments volume growth of 7% and cash volume growth of (1)%; cross-border volume growth of 13%; diluted earnings per share of $10.20 — FY2025 · publ. 6 November 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedGrowth of 27% in fiscal 2025 and then 45% in the June 2026 quarter
    Visa Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (CIK 1403161) — net revenue of $11,633 million against $10,172 million, comprising service revenue $4,922 million, data processing revenue $6,042 million, international transaction revenue $3,853 million and other revenue $1,496 million, less client incentives of $4,680 million against $3,972 million; operating income of $6,877 million against $6,177 million and net income of $5,628 million against $5,272 million; nine-month net revenue of $33,764 million against $29,276 million, operating income of $20,848 million against $17,846 million, total operating expenses of $12,916 million against $11,430 million and a litigation provision of $1,290 million against $1,659 million; interest expense of $194 million in the quarter against $39 million; U.S. net revenue of $4,410 million and international net revenue of $7,223 million; revenue from value-added services of $3.8 billion in the quarter against $2.8 billion a year earlier — Q3 FY2026 and the nine months to 30 June 2026 · publ. 29 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026