✦ Stablecoins: Building the Thing That Could Replace YouThin moat

Visa (V) — the future bets

A settlement network naming a settlement technology as an investment area is worth pausing over.

Visa's 10-K lists stablecoins alongside generative AI and agentic commerce as next-generation technologies it is investing in1. A settlement network naming a settlement technology that could disintermediate it is worth pausing over.

What a stablecoin rail would target ($M, FY2025)$14,166mInternational transaction revenue$4,053mOther revenueThe richest line, and the slowest part of the payment stack
A settlement network naming a settlement technology as an active investment area is worth pausing over.

The rational reading is that stablecoins threaten the slowest and most expensive part of the business — cross-border settlement and correspondent banking — rather than the point of sale. Visa's international transaction revenue was $14.2 billion in fiscal 20252, the richest line it has, and it is exactly where an instant, cheap, dollar-denominated rail is most attractive to the people currently paying for the alternative.

Participating is therefore both defensive and opportunistic: settle in stablecoins where they are cheaper, keep the customer relationship and the compliance layer, and be inside the transition rather than opposite it. Whether that preserves the yield is the open question, and there is no evidence yet in either direction. What is clear is that the alternative — declining to participate and defending the correspondent-banking economics — has never worked for anyone.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Named as an investment area, aimed at the slowest and most expensive part of the business. There is no evidence yet in either direction.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Cross-border revenue a stablecoin rail would target
$14.2B in FY2025

The richest line Visa has and the slowest part of the payment stack, which is exactly where an instant dollar-denominated alternative is most attractive. No evidence yet in either direction.

Source: Visa Form 10-K, fiscal year ended September 30, 2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedVisa's 10-K lists stablecoins alongside generative AI and agentic commerce as next-generation technologies it is investing in
    Visa Inc. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025 (CIK 1403161), Item 1 Business — the network reaches approximately 12 billion cards, bank accounts and digital wallets and more than 175 million merchant locations across more than 200 countries and territories; nearly five billion payment credentials; clients comprise nearly 14,500 financial institutions; Tap to Pay provisioning is live for more than 1.4 billion Visa credit and debit cards with more than 600 participating issuers; Visa Direct processed more than 12.5 billion transactions for more than 650 partners and can reach approximately 12 billion endpoints through more than 90 domestic payment schemes and more than 60 card and wallet networks; during fiscal 2025, 329 billion payments and cash transactions carried the Visa brand, an average of 901 million a day, of which 258 billion were processed by Visa; the Visa as a Service stack's access layer includes on-demand APIs and an MCP server enabling AI systems to interface with Visa Intelligent Commerce APIs; stablecoins, generative AI and agentic commerce are named as next-generation technologies under investment — FY2025 (year ended 30 September 2025) · publ. 6 November 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedVisa's international transaction revenue was $14.2 billion in fiscal 2025
    Visa Inc. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025 (CIK 1403161), Item 1 Business — the network reaches approximately 12 billion cards, bank accounts and digital wallets and more than 175 million merchant locations across more than 200 countries and territories; nearly five billion payment credentials; clients comprise nearly 14,500 financial institutions; Tap to Pay provisioning is live for more than 1.4 billion Visa credit and debit cards with more than 600 participating issuers; Visa Direct processed more than 12.5 billion transactions for more than 650 partners and can reach approximately 12 billion endpoints through more than 90 domestic payment schemes and more than 60 card and wallet networks; during fiscal 2025, 329 billion payments and cash transactions carried the Visa brand, an average of 901 million a day, of which 258 billion were processed by Visa; the Visa as a Service stack's access layer includes on-demand APIs and an MCP server enabling AI systems to interface with Visa Intelligent Commerce APIs; stablecoins, generative AI and agentic commerce are named as next-generation technologies under investment — FY2025 (year ended 30 September 2025) · publ. 6 November 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026