⚠ Only Where a Chinese Alternative Does Not ExistModerate threat

Texas Instruments (TXN) — threat to the moat

Available only where a Chinese alternative is not, which is why the increases are concentrated rather than spread.

Price increases are available where a Chinese alternative is not, which bounds them precisely.

Where a price increase is availableDifferentiated Analog partsYes — concentrated hereCommodity partsWhere Chinese alternatives exist, noShipments into ChinaAbout 50% of revenueAnti-dumping rulingDue by September 2026Margin rising while revenue lags the market would be the wrong kind of success.
The concentration in Analog is the informative part.

TI began customer-by-customer increases from the third quarter of 2026, concentrated in Analog, extending into 2027.1 The concentration is the informative part: the commodity end of the catalogue — high-volume, undifferentiated parts — is where Chinese suppliers have been working upward and where a price increase invites a design-out.2

The timing also sits inside a Chinese anti-dumping investigation into American-made analog chips due to conclude by September 2026, which makes raising prices into that market a delicate exercise.3

The financial prize is real: gross margin moved from 57.0% to 61.4% on volume alone, and price lands on top with no incremental cost.45

The risk is that increases stick in the differentiated parts and accelerate share loss in the undifferentiated ones — improving margin while shrinking the base.

Watch revenue growth alongside gross margin. Margin rising while revenue lags the market would be the wrong kind of success.

References
  1. ReportedTI began customer-by-customer increases from the third quarter of 2026, concentrated in Analog, extending into 2027.
    Coverage of Texas Instruments' second-quarter 2026 results, July 2026 — revenue of $5.46 billion, up 23% year over year and 13% sequentially against consensus near $5.24 billion; net income of $1.98 billion, up 53%, and EPS of $2.14, up 52% and above the high end of guidance. By segment, Analog revenue was $4.37 billion (up 26%), Embedded Processing $788 million (up 16%) and Other $310 million (down 2%). Industrial revenue grew more than 30% year over year across all sectors and regions, automotive re-accelerated, and data centre revenue roughly doubled. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $5.65-6.15 billion and confirmed 2026 capital expenditure of $2-3 billion, declining to bias the range toward the lower end. After holding pricing flat through the first half, TI began executing customer-by-customer price increases from the third quarter, extending into the fourth quarter and into 2027, concentrated in Analog. Management has framed free cash flow per share of $8 or more as probable for 2026, having earlier suggested $12. The shares fell after hours. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-24 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTI began customer-by-customer increases from the third quarter of 2026, concentrated in Analog, extending into 2027. The concentration is the informative part: the commodity end of the catalogue — high-volume, undifferentiated parts — is where Chinese suppliers have been working upward and where a price increase invites a design-out.
    Coverage of Texas Instruments' second-quarter 2026 results, July 2026 — revenue of $5.46 billion, up 23% year over year and 13% sequentially against consensus near $5.24 billion; net income of $1.98 billion, up 53%, and EPS of $2.14, up 52% and above the high end of guidance. By segment, Analog revenue was $4.37 billion (up 26%), Embedded Processing $788 million (up 16%) and Other $310 million (down 2%). Industrial revenue grew more than 30% year over year across all sectors and regions, automotive re-accelerated, and data centre revenue roughly doubled. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $5.65-6.15 billion and confirmed 2026 capital expenditure of $2-3 billion, declining to bias the range toward the lower end. After holding pricing flat through the first half, TI began executing customer-by-customer price increases from the third quarter, extending into the fourth quarter and into 2027, concentrated in Analog. Management has framed free cash flow per share of $8 or more as probable for 2026, having earlier suggested $12. The shares fell after hours. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-24 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe timing also sits inside a Chinese anti-dumping investigation into American-made analog chips due to conclude by September 2026, which makes raising prices into that market a delicate exercise.
    Coverage of China's anti-dumping investigation into American-made analog chips, September 2025. China's Ministry of Commerce opened the probe on 13 September 2025 into certain American-made analog integrated circuits, targeting commodity interface ICs and gate driver ICs and naming products sold by Texas Instruments and Analog Devices among others. The anti-dumping investigation period covers 1 January to 31 December 2024 and the injury investigation period 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024; the investigation is normally scheduled to be completed by 13 September 2026, extendable by a further six months in special circumstances. China's Trade Remedy and Investigation Bureau issued questionnaires seeking data on sales activities in China, including comparisons of costs and profits in the home country and in China, with responses required within 37 days. A duty regime could prompt Chinese manufacturers to pay more for US-origin analog chips, switch to domestic alternatives or pivot to non-US vendors. — 2025-2026 · publ. 2025-09-15 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe financial prize is real: gross margin moved from 57.0% to 61.4% on volume alone, and price lands on top with no incremental cost.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (SEC, CIK 97476). Revenue $5,463M against $4,448M a year earlier, and $10,288M for the six months against $8,517M; cost of revenue $2,111M; gross profit $3,352M against $2,575M — a 61.4% gross margin against 57.9%; research and development $535M against $527M; selling, general and administrative $490M against $485M; acquisition charges $17M; operating profit $2,310M against $1,563M. Income before income taxes $2,238M; provision for income taxes $258M; net income $1,980M against $1,295M. Basic EPS $2.16 and diluted EPS $2.14, against $1.42 and $1.41, on 920 million diluted shares. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-24 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe financial prize is real: gross margin moved from 57.0% to 61.4% on volume alone, and price lands on top with no incremental cost.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (SEC, CIK 97476). Revenue $5,463M against $4,448M a year earlier, and $10,288M for the six months against $8,517M; cost of revenue $2,111M; gross profit $3,352M against $2,575M — a 61.4% gross margin against 57.9%; research and development $535M against $527M; selling, general and administrative $490M against $485M; acquisition charges $17M; operating profit $2,310M against $1,563M. Income before income taxes $2,238M; provision for income taxes $258M; net income $1,980M against $1,295M. Basic EPS $2.16 and diluted EPS $2.14, against $1.42 and $1.41, on 920 million diluted shares. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-24 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026