⚠ Which Means Today's Losses Are Invisible Until 2035Moderate threat

Texas Instruments (TXN) — threat to the moat

Which means the sockets TI is losing today will not appear in any number until the 2030s.

Decade-long product lives cut both ways, and TI is currently losing 2035's sockets to somebody else.

Longevity, running the other waySocket won todayRevenue through the 2030sSocket lost todayLost through the 2030sVisible in current revenueNeitherShare of shipments going to ChinaAbout 50%Chinese suppliers winning designs now are winning them for the next decade.
There is no metric that gives warning, because the effect is a decade out.

An analog part designed into an industrial controller stays in production for decades because requalifying a board costs far more than the component. That is the strongest single reason TI's revenue is stable. It also means a socket lost today is lost until the end product is discontinued.

Chinese analog manufacturers winning designs now are winning them for the 2030s, in a market where about 50% of TI's shipments physically go.1 Nothing in the current revenue line reflects that, and nothing will for years.

The same lag applies to TI's own wins, so the effect is symmetric in principle. It is not symmetric in practice if a policy environment is steering design decisions in one direction.

The 33% of revenue from automotive is where this binds hardest: a platform decision is made once, against functional-safety qualification, for the life of a vehicle programme.2

There is no metric that gives warning. The signal is design-win commentary from Chinese suppliers, not anything in TI's reporting.

References
  1. ReportedChinese analog manufacturers winning designs now are winning them for the 2030s, in a market where about 50% of TI's shipments physically go.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated statements of income and segment results. Revenue $17,682M, up $2.04bn or 13.0%; gross profit $10,081M; operating profit $6,023M; other income net $230M; interest and debt expense $543M; income before income taxes $5,710M; provision for income taxes $709M at an effective rate of 12.4% (12.0% in 2024); net income $5,001M against $4,799M in 2024 and $6,510M in 2023. Basic EPS $5.47 and diluted EPS $5.45, against $5.20 and $7.07 in the two prior years, on 913 million diluted shares. By segment, Analog revenue $14,006M (2024 $12,161M, +15%) with operating profit $5,412M (2024 $4,608M, +17%) at 38.6% of revenue (37.9%); Embedded Processing $2,700M; Other the remainder. Revenue peaked at $20,028M in 2022 with operating profit of $10,140M, and troughed at $15,641M in 2024 with operating profit of $5,465M. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe 33% of revenue from automotive is where this binds hardest: a platform decision is made once, against functional-safety qualification, for the life of a vehicle programme.
    Texas Instruments Incorporated, Form 10-K for the year ended 31 December 2025 (SEC, CIK 97476) — Item 1, Business. TI's two reportable segments are Analog and Embedded Processing, with remaining activities in Other; operations began in 1930 and it has design, manufacturing or sales operations in more than 30 countries. The product portfolio includes more than 80,000 products. TI states four sustainable competitive advantages: a strong foundation of manufacturing and technology, a broad portfolio of analog and embedded processing products, the reach of its market channels, and the diversity and longevity of its products, markets and customer positions, which in combination it describes as difficult to replicate. An unpackaged chip built on a 300mm wafer costs about 40% less than one built on a 200mm wafer; TI continued qualifying and ramping production at its newest 300mm fabs in Richardson and Sherman, Texas, and Lehi, Utah, supporting external foundry transfers and internal transfers from its legacy 150mm facilities, and expects to maintain sufficient internal capacity to meet the majority of its production needs, offering customers geopolitically dependable capacity. TI sells to over 100,000 customers, with about half of revenue derived from customers outside its largest 50; more than 80% of revenue was direct in 2025, including TI.com. End markets as a percentage of 2025 revenue: industrial 33%, automotive 33%, personal electronics 21%, data centre 9%, communications equipment 3%, and calculators about 1%. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the United States; revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of revenue in 2025, while revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50%. The analog and embedded processing markets remain highly fragmented, with significant global competition from dozens of large and small companies including emerging companies, particularly in Asia. The company's stated objective is the growth of free cash flow per share over the long term. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-06 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026