⚠ Dominance Invites a ResponseModerate threat

A near-monopoly on access to space is a wonderful commercial position and an uncomfortable strategic one — for everyone else. The Pentagon has been explicit that it does not want to depend on a single provider for something as vital as launch, and it is deliberately funding rivals to keep a second and third option alive. Foreign governments, wary of relying on an American company tied to a mercurial founder, are backing their own sovereign launchers and constellations. Dominance this complete does not sit quietly; it summons a coalition of customers and states with both the motive and the means to underwrite alternatives. The share is a moat, but its very size is what most reliably calls forth the competition that would shrink it — Kuiper's $10B-plus commitment is exhibit one¹.