⚠ A Credit Record Is a Claim About the PastHigh threat

PKO Bank Polski (PKO) — threat to the moat

Thirty basis points describes loans already made, not the ones being written now.

Cost of risk of 0,30%1 is the strongest number in these accounts and the one that carries the least information about the future.

How much of the book has a repayment history247 572Lent before 202568 381Added in 202568 381m zł - about a fifth of the portfolio - has barely made a payment yet
Thirty basis points describes loans already made. A fifth of this book has not yet had the chance to go wrong.

Polish credit conditions over the period that produced it were exceptionally supportive: low unemployment, fast wage growth, and an economy that expanded through a rate cycle taking the reference rate from near zero to above 6%. Every Polish bank's credit costs fell. PKO's fell further, which is the part that belongs to the bank.

The scale of what an ordinary downturn would do is easy to size. On financing of 315 953 million złoty2, reverting from 0,30% to the 0,59% of 20223 costs about 900 million złoty of pre-tax profit; a genuine recession would take it well beyond that.

PKO's defences are real: impaired exposures at 3,34% and falling4, a total capital ratio of 17,10%5 and common equity tier 1 of 15,55% at mid-20266.

The dilution is measurable. Financing granted rose from 247 572 million złoty to 315 953 million in a single year7 - so roughly a fifth of the book was written in 2025 and has barely made a payment, against a cost of risk calculated on loans that have been repaying for years.

The number that tests this threat is the gap between PKO's cost of risk and the sector's, through the next downturn rather than in it. Everyone's number rises together; only the gap says whether the underwriting was better or the weather was.

References
  1. ReportedCost of risk of 0,30% is the strongest number in these accounts and the one that carries the least information about the future.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - the efficiency and quality ratios (return on equity of 19,5%, return on assets of 1,9%, a cost-to-income ratio of 31,1%, net interest margin of 4,76%, cost of credit risk of 0,30% and impaired exposures at 3,34% of the portfolio) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOn financing of 315 953 million złoty, reverting from 0,30% to the 0,59% of 2022 costs about 900 million złoty of pre-tax profit; a genuine recession would take it well beyond that.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - the efficiency and quality ratios (return on equity of 19,5%, return on assets of 1,9%, a cost-to-income ratio of 31,1%, net interest margin of 4,76%, cost of credit risk of 0,30% and impaired exposures at 3,34% of the portfolio) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedOn financing of 315 953 million złoty, reverting from 0,30% to the 0,59% of 2022 costs about 900 million złoty of pre-tax profit; a genuine recession would take it well beyond that.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - the efficiency and quality ratios (return on equity of 19,5%, return on assets of 1,9%, a cost-to-income ratio of 31,1%, net interest margin of 4,76%, cost of credit risk of 0,30% and impaired exposures at 3,34% of the portfolio) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedPKO's defences are real: impaired exposures at 3,34% and falling, a total capital ratio of 17,10% and common equity tier 1 of 15,55% at mid-2026.
    Polish corporate income tax on banks - the amendment signed by the president on 27 November 2025 and in force from 1 January 2026, raising the rate on commercial banks from 19% to 30% for 2026, then 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028, with the asset-based bank levy falling from 0,0366% to 0,0329% and 0,0293%; framed by the finance ministry as social justice and as financing defence needs, criticised by the sector as discriminatory, and estimated to raise about 6,5bn złoty in 2026 — 2026-2028 · publ. November 2025 · source ↗
  5. ReportedPKO's defences are real: impaired exposures at 3,34% and falling, a total capital ratio of 17,10% and common equity tier 1 of 15,55% at mid-2026.
    Polish corporate income tax on banks - the amendment signed by the president on 27 November 2025 and in force from 1 January 2026, raising the rate on commercial banks from 19% to 30% for 2026, then 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028, with the asset-based bank levy falling from 0,0366% to 0,0329% and 0,0293%; framed by the finance ministry as social justice and as financing defence needs, criticised by the sector as discriminatory, and estimated to raise about 6,5bn złoty in 2026 — 2026-2028 · publ. November 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedPKO's defences are real: impaired exposures at 3,34% and falling, a total capital ratio of 17,10% and common equity tier 1 of 15,55% at mid-2026.
    Polish corporate income tax on banks - the amendment signed by the president on 27 November 2025 and in force from 1 January 2026, raising the rate on commercial banks from 19% to 30% for 2026, then 26% in 2027 and 23% in 2028, with the asset-based bank levy falling from 0,0366% to 0,0329% and 0,0293%; framed by the finance ministry as social justice and as financing defence needs, criticised by the sector as discriminatory, and estimated to raise about 6,5bn złoty in 2026 — 2026-2028 · publ. November 2025 · source ↗
  7. ReportedFinancing granted rose from 247 572 million złoty to 315 953 million in a single year - so roughly a fifth of the book was written in 2025 and has barely made a payment, against a cost of risk calculated on loans that have been repaying...
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - the efficiency and quality ratios (return on equity of 19,5%, return on assets of 1,9%, a cost-to-income ratio of 31,1%, net interest margin of 4,76%, cost of credit risk of 0,30% and impaired exposures at 3,34% of the portfolio) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026