⚠ Polish Wages Rise Whether Income Does or NotHigh threat

PKO Bank Polski (PKO) — threat to the moat

Costs are indexed to Polish wage growth; income is indexed to the reference rate, and the two do not move together.

PKO's administrative expenses rose 11,2% in 2025 to 9 439 million złoty while income rose 5,6%1, and the headcount barely moved — 26 252 full-time equivalents against 25 8212.

The two sides of the ratio, FY2025 (zl m)30 370Result on business activities9 439Administrative expensesIncome indexed to the reference rate; costs indexed to Polish wage growth
The numerator and the denominator answer to different masters. When the rate falls and wages do not, the best efficiency ratio in Europe stops being one.

The gap is wages. Polish pay has grown rapidly for several years, and a bank employing 26 thousand people in a tight labour market absorbs that whether or not its income cooperates. It is the same force compressing margins at Dino and Allegro, and it reaches PKO through the largest cost line it has.

The consequence is that cost-to-income deteriorated in a record year: 29,5% to 31,1%3, and 29,8% to 31,4% in the first half of 20264.

PKO cannot easily offset it. The branch network is politically difficult to shrink, the headcount is already flat, and the bank holds a Top Employer certificate it presumably intends to keep5.

The scale of the exposure is worth stating plainly: 26 252 full-time equivalents against administrative expenses of 9 439 million złoty6, in a bank whose entire cost advantage is that the second number has grown more slowly than income. It has now stopped doing so.

The measure is employee costs per full-time equivalent rather than the headcount. The headcount has been flat for five years and will tell you nothing; the cost per head is where the pressure actually arrives.

References
  1. ReportedPKO's administrative expenses rose 11,2% in 2025 to 9 439 million złoty while income rose 5,6%, and the headcount barely moved — 26 252 full-time equivalents against 25 821.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - market position, distribution network and staff (PKO described as the largest commercial bank in Poland and the leading bank on its home market in terms of the scale of operations, with the most recognised brand among banks; 947 branches against 975, about 3 100 ATMs and 225 agencies, 26 252 employees against 25 657 and a seventh consecutive Top Employer certificate, the corporate network of 49 branches and 24 regional centres, seven voivodeship budgets, and the foreign branches and representative offices in Stockholm and Vilnius) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedPKO's administrative expenses rose 11,2% in 2025 to 9 439 million złoty while income rose 5,6%, and the headcount barely moved — 26 252 full-time equivalents against 25 821.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - market position, distribution network and staff (PKO described as the largest commercial bank in Poland and the leading bank on its home market in terms of the scale of operations, with the most recognised brand among banks; 947 branches against 975, about 3 100 ATMs and 225 agencies, 26 252 employees against 25 657 and a seventh consecutive Top Employer certificate, the corporate network of 49 branches and 24 regional centres, seven voivodeship budgets, and the foreign branches and representative offices in Stockholm and Vilnius) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe consequence is that cost-to-income deteriorated in a record year: 29,5% to 31,1%, and 29,8% to 31,4% in the first half of 2026.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026, published with reviewed financial statements (profit before tax of 8 319m złoty up 19,9%, income tax of 3 029m up 67,4%, net profit of 5 290m up 3,1%, return on equity of 19,3%, cost-to-income of 31,4%, interest margin of 4,47% against 4,91%, cost of risk of 0,29%, total assets past 608 448m, 12,6 million customers, common equity tier 1 of 15,55%, and a further 685m złoty of convertible-currency legal risk) — H1 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe consequence is that cost-to-income deteriorated in a record year: 29,5% to 31,1%, and 29,8% to 31,4% in the first half of 2026.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for the six months ended 30 June 2026, published with reviewed financial statements (profit before tax of 8 319m złoty up 19,9%, income tax of 3 029m up 67,4%, net profit of 5 290m up 3,1%, return on equity of 19,3%, cost-to-income of 31,4%, interest margin of 4,47% against 4,91%, cost of risk of 0,29%, total assets past 608 448m, 12,6 million customers, common equity tier 1 of 15,55%, and a further 685m złoty of convertible-currency legal risk) — H1 2026 · publ. 13 August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe branch network is politically difficult to shrink, the headcount is already flat, and the bank holds a Top Employer certificate it presumably intends to keep.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - market position, distribution network and staff (PKO described as the largest commercial bank in Poland and the leading bank on its home market in terms of the scale of operations, with the most recognised brand among banks; 947 branches against 975, about 3 100 ATMs and 225 agencies, 26 252 employees against 25 657 and a seventh consecutive Top Employer certificate, the corporate network of 49 branches and 24 regional centres, seven voivodeship budgets, and the foreign branches and representative offices in Stockholm and Vilnius) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe scale of the exposure is worth stating plainly: 26 252 full-time equivalents against administrative expenses of 9 439 million złoty, in a bank whose entire cost advantage is that the second number has grown more slowly than income.
    PKO Bank Polski S.A. Group Directors' Report for 2025 - market position, distribution network and staff (PKO described as the largest commercial bank in Poland and the leading bank on its home market in terms of the scale of operations, with the most recognised brand among banks; 947 branches against 975, about 3 100 ATMs and 225 agencies, 26 252 employees against 25 657 and a seventh consecutive Top Employer certificate, the corporate network of 49 branches and 24 regional centres, seven voivodeship budgets, and the foreign branches and representative offices in Stockholm and Vilnius) — FY2025 · publ. 12 March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026