⚠ A Sensitivity Nobody PublishesModerate threat

Mitsubishi Corporation (8058) — threat to the moat

Mitsubishi tells investors what every commodity is worth to it except the one that used to earn it most.

Mitsubishi publishes how much its profit moves with oil, copper, gas, iron ore and the yen. A $1 a barrel change in crude is worth about ¥2.4 billion, $100 a tonne of copper about ¥2.6 billion, and a yen against the dollar about ¥5.0 billion1. The iron ore sensitivity is ¥0.74 billion per dollar a tonne2. For coking coal, the business that was its largest profit source two years ago, the sensitivity is undisclosed3.

Net profit sensitivities, year to March 2027 (¥ bn)Yen, per ¥1 against the dollar5.0Copper, per $100 a tonne2.6Crude oil, per $1 a barrel2.4Iron ore, per $1 a tonne0.74Coking coalundisclosedMitsubishi Corporation results and presentation, May 2026
Every sensitivity is published except coal's.

The company's assumption for coking coal in the year to March 2026 was $200 a tonne; for the current year it is also undisclosed4. An investor trying to judge how much a coal recovery would add, or how much further a fall would cost, has to estimate it.

There are reasons a company might withhold a single price: contract negotiations, or a price range too volatile to give usefully. But the absence is itself a signal about how uncertain management thinks the number is.

The copper sensitivity is instructive by comparison. Ten years ago the company put it at about ¥0.9 billion per $100 a tonne5; it is now about ¥2.6 billion6, reflecting a copper portfolio nearly three times larger in earnings terms. Mitsubishi updates its sensitivities as its exposures change. The coal line was removed in the same year the coal profit collapsed.

The measure is whether the disclosure returns. A company confident in its coal outlook would publish the sensitivity again.

References
  1. ReportedA $1 a barrel change in crude is worth about ¥2.4 billion, $100 a tonne of copper about ¥2.6 billion, and a yen against the dollar about ¥5.0 billion.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, the eight-segment note, dividends and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe iron ore sensitivity is ¥0.74 billion per dollar a tonne.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2025 results and FY2026 forecast presentation (1 May 2026) - net income by segment and of major subsidiaries and affiliates, with ownership, and the forecast by segment. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedFor coking coal, the business that was its largest profit source two years ago, the sensitivity is undisclosed.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2025 results and FY2026 forecast presentation (1 May 2026) - net income by segment and of major subsidiaries and affiliates, with ownership, and the forecast by segment. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe company's assumption for coking coal in the year to March 2026 was $200 a tonne; for the current year it is also undisclosed.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2025 results and FY2026 forecast presentation (1 May 2026) - net income by segment and of major subsidiaries and affiliates, with ownership, and the forecast by segment. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedTen years ago the company put it at about ¥0.9 billion per $100 a tonne; it is now about ¥2.6 billion, reflecting a copper portfolio nearly three times larger in earnings terms.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2016 - the net loss and the impairment losses on resource-related assets in the Metals group. — FY to March 2016 · publ. May 2016 · source ↗
  6. ReportedTen years ago the company put it at about ¥0.9 billion per $100 a tonne; it is now about ¥2.6 billion, reflecting a copper portfolio nearly three times larger in earnings terms.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the consolidated statements of income, financial position and cash flows, the eight-segment note, dividends and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026