⚠ A Return Below the Cost of the StakeModerate threat

Mitsubishi Corporation (8058) — threat to the moat

Mitsubishi's Lawson stake earns under 6% on its carrying value, after one large write-down already.

Mitsubishi earns about ¥28.8 billion a year from a Lawson stake carried at ¥502.6 billion12. The return is modest, and it follows an ¥83.6 billion impairment in the year to March 20213.

Lawson stake (¥ bn)502.6Carrying value28.8Share of profit, yr to Mar 202683.6Impairment, yr to Mar 2021Mitsubishi Corporation results
The impairment five years ago was almost three years of today's profit.

A convenience-store chain in Japan competes with rival chains for the same trips, including ITOCHU's FamilyMart. Itochu's FamilyMart has about 16,400 stores4.

Mitsubishi's own planning emphasises returns on invested capital for every operating company5. Lawson, at about 5.7% on its carrying value6, would be below most reasonable hurdles, and it is one of the largest single investments in the portfolio.

The measure is Lawson's profit growth. Flat profit would leave the stake earning less than Mitsubishi's cost of equity indefinitely.

References
  1. ReportedMitsubishi earns about ¥28.8 billion a year from a Lawson stake carried at ¥502.6 billion.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2025 results and FY2026 forecast presentation (1 May 2026) - net income by segment and of major subsidiaries and affiliates, with ownership, and the forecast by segment. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedMitsubishi earns about ¥28.8 billion a year from a Lawson stake carried at ¥502.6 billion.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - the notes on significant investments: MDP and BMA, Lawson, Eneco, LNG Canada, Anglo American Sur and Quellaveco, with book values and ownership. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe return is modest, and it follows an ¥83.6 billion impairment in the year to March 2021.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2021 - the impairment of Lawson goodwill and intangible assets and the fall in profit. — FY to March 2021 · publ. May 2021 · source ↗
  4. ReportedItochu's FamilyMart has about 16,400 stores.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Financial Information Report 2026 - net profit of ¥900.3 billion and the FamilyMart network of about 16,400 stores. — FY to March 2026 · publ. June 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedMitsubishi's own planning emphasises returns on invested capital for every operating company.
    Mitsubishi Corporation, FY2024 results presentation - the review of Midterm Corporate Strategy 2024, the Enhance programmes covering all 244 operating companies, capital recycling, and the credit ratings. — FY to March 2025 · publ. 2 May 2025 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcLawson, at about 5.7% on its carrying value, would be below most reasonable hurdles, and it is one of the largest single investments in the portfolio.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Mitsubishi Corporation's reported figures. Equity-method profit over net profit: 467.9 / 800.5 = 58.5%. Mineral Resources plus Environmental Energy over segment total: (204.5 + 160.9) / 752.1 = 48.6%. Energy & Power (Environmental Energy plus Power Solution): 238.8 + 97.9 = 336.7 (year to March 2024), 198.6 - 15.6 = 183.0 (2025), 160.9 + 43.4 = 204.3 (2026). Other and adjustments: 51.2 - 9.2 = 42.0 (2025), 51.8 - 3.5 = 48.3 (2026). Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 800.5 + 298.5 - 203.1 = 895.9; revenue 19,878.3; EPS 210.92 + 81.53 - 51.59 = 240.86. Progress against guidance: 298.5 / 1,100.0 = 27.1%. Share price change since March: 4,811 / 5,317 - 1 = -9.5%. Berkshire's market value over cost: 9,207 / 4,248 = 2.17 times; dividend on cost 273 / 4,248 = 6.4%. Mitsubishi Development profit: 190.2, 132.9, 8.3. Copper profit growth: 149.9 / 63.8 = 2.35 times. Segment profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Mineral Resources 204.5 / 5,995.2 = 3.4%; Energy & Power 204.3 / 6,079.0 = 3.4%; Smart-Life Creation 91.0 / 2,745.5 = 3.3%; Food Industry 83.3 / 2,334.1 = 3.6%; Urban Development & Infrastructure 85.1 / 2,173.8 = 3.9%; Mobility 57.6 / 1,942.7 = 3.0%; Materials Solution 26.3 / 1,971.4 = 1.3%. Adjusted net income growth implied by guidance: (1,100.0 - 280.0) / 703.7 = 1.17. Split-adjusted dividend growth: 125 / 44 = 2.8 times. Buyback share of shares: 318.4 / 4,028.9 = 7.9%. Data-centre capacity growth: 168 / 29 = 5.8 times. Average buyback price: about ¥1,000,000 million / 318.4 million shares = about ¥3,141. Lawson return on carrying value: 28.8 / 502.6 = 5.7%. Copper profit excluding the Anglo American Sur reversal: 149.9 - 53.2 = 96.7. Interest cost of one percentage point on ¥5,746.9 billion: about ¥57 billion. Eneco goodwill cover: 167.0 / 31.0 = 5.4 years of profit. Aethon expected return: ¥50-60 billion on about ¥800 billion = 6-8%. Oil assumption effect: (78 - 70) x ¥2.4 billion = about ¥19 billion. Market value over adjusted net income: 17,620 / 703.7 = 25 times. Dividends paid: 408,458 / 289,692 = 1.41 (up 41%) while net income 800.5 / 964.0 = 0.83 (down 17%). MDP return on plant: 8.3 / 1,160.6 = 0.7%. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in Mitsubishi Corporation's results, presentations and market data; operands shown in the source line.
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026