⚠ The Land-Price SqueezeModerate threat

Dom Development (DOM) — threat to the moat

Everyone bids for the same scarce plots — the advantage gets competed into the land price.

The land bank is Dom's great advantage and its great exposure at once. Land in the best Polish districts is scarce and getting scarcer, and every developer with capital — plus, increasingly, institutional buyers of build-to-rent — is competing for the same plots, pushing prices relentlessly higher. Rising land costs squeeze margins directly, because a developer cannot always pass them on to buyers whose budgets are capped by what the bank will lend them. The very scarcity that makes an existing land bank valuable — Dom held capacity for some 18 800 apartments at the end of 20251 — makes replenishing it expensive, and there is a real risk that Dom must either overpay to keep its pipeline full or let the pipeline shrink. Neither is comfortable, and both erode the returns that justify the whole enterprise. The moat depends on buying land well; the environment for buying land well is getting harder.

Change in land bank by city, June 2025 to June 2026 (%)-38%Wroclaw-12%Krakow-8%Warsaw+7%TricityDom Development H1 2026 management report; bar length is the size of the change
Three of four cities are building faster than Dom is refilling the land.
References
  1. ReportedLand bank ~18 800 units at end-2025.
    Dom Development Group Management Board's report on 2025 activities — land bank capacity for ~18 800 units at the end of December 2025 — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026