⚠ Land, Permits & Political RiskHigh threat

Beyond the demand cycle, the second great uncontrollable for Dom Development is the supply side — the land, the permits, and the political environment that govern whether it can build at all, and at what cost. Land in the desirable districts is scarce and expensive, and every rival and institutional buyer bids for the same plots, so the cost of the company's essential raw material is set by a competitive scramble it cannot escape and rises relentlessly. Overpay for land and future margins vanish; refuse to overpay and the pipeline shrinks. It is a genuine and permanent squeeze.

The permitting and policy environment compounds the exposure. Polish development runs through a slow, unpredictable approval process, and housing has become a charged political issue — subsidy schemes that whipsaw demand (the 'Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%' program of 2023 ignited a buying rush one year and lapsed the next¹), periodic talk of rent controls or curbs on investment buying, tightening environmental and zoning rules, and the ordinary unpredictability of municipal politics all sit outside the company's control and can freeze projects, strand land, or reshape the market overnight. Dom's scale and experience let it navigate this better than most, but the state holds the keys to both the supply of buildable land and the demand of subsidized buyers, and a hostile turn in either — a clampdown on development or a withdrawal of housing support — is a risk the company can only manage, never remove. The moat is built on ground the government ultimately controls.