✦ The Japan CompounderNarrow moat
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — the future bets
Fifteen billion in, thirty-five billion out and still compounding — Berkshire's model, purchased abroad at half the multiple it trades at home.
The most successful late-Buffett trade keeps compounding under his successor: in May 2026 Berkshire crossed the 10% ownership threshold in Sumitomo and Marubeni, completing the set — more than a tenth of all five Japanese trading houses: Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo1. The arithmetic explains the persistence: roughly $15.4 billion invested is worth about $35.4 billion, financed cheaply in yen-denominated debt that hedges the currency while the houses' dividends and buybacks compound the position2.
The trading houses are, in effect, little Berkshires — diversified owners of energy, commodities, logistics and consumer assets with disciplined capital allocation — which makes the bet a philosophical statement as much as a trade: Berkshire's model, purchased abroad at half the multiple it trades at home. The companies have welcomed the ownership and lifted their ceilings above 10% by agreement. Watch the stakes' next increments and the yen financing's rollover terms — and whether Abel extends the pattern to a sixth name or a second country, which would mark the trade graduating into doctrine.
Widening past the old ceiling: all five houses now above 10% by agreement, the position worth more than double its cost, dividends and buybacks compounding beneath. The trade keeps being extended rather than harvested — the tell of conviction.
All five trading houses above 10% by agreement, financed in cheap yen, compounding through dividends and buybacks — Berkshire's own model bought abroad at half the home multiple. Watch the next increments and the yen rollovers; extension to a sixth name or a second country would mark the trade becoming doctrine.
Source: Berkshire Japan-position disclosures (CNBC) ↗- ReportedMay 2026: Sumitomo and Marubeni crossed 10%, completing the set of five.Hedge Fund Alpha — Berkshire crossed 10% in Sumitomo and Marubeni (May 7, 2026), completing >10% stakes in all five Japanese trading houses (Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo) — May 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
- Reported~$15.4B invested, ~$35.4B value; yen financing hedges the position.CNBC — Berkshire's Japanese trading-house positions: ~$15.4B invested, ~$35.4B market value by end-2025 (>$30B reported Oct 2025); yen-denominated financing hedges the currency — 2025 · publ. Oct 11, 2025 · source ↗
- Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-K filings — Business & Risk Factors (SEC EDGAR)
- Japan positions top $30B (CNBC)
- 10% across all five houses