✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) — the future bets

Berkshire's future bets are questions, not moonshots — and Abel's first year answered with $16 billion of checkbooks, five Japanese houses, and a utility feeding the AI boom.

Berkshire does not do future bets in the Silicon Valley sense — no moonshots, no pre-revenue dreams — but the next decade's questions are just as real, and 2026 began answering them: what does the machine do differently under Greg Abel, and where does the largest cash pile in corporate history finally go?

The Abel era's opening numbers ($B)Japan stakes, market value$35.4BBHE capex plan, 2026-28$33.3BOxyChem$9.4BTaylor Morrison$6.8BCNBC (Japan, end-2025); Motley Fool (BHE plan); Berkshire Form 10-Q June 2026 (deals)
No moonshots: two industrial companies, a stake in Japan and a utility build-out.

Four answers are taking shape. The Abel era opened with checkbooks, not speeches: OxyChem, agreed for $9.7 billion and closed on 2 January at about $9.4 billion, and the homebuilder Taylor Morrison, about $6.8 billion, closed on 24 July: roughly $16 billion of whole companies in seven months.12 The Japan wager crossed a threshold: over 10% of all five trading houses, a position built for $15.4 billion and worth more than double that3. The cash pile itself became the story — down from a $397.4 billion record at the end of March to $365.5 billion in June as capital finally moved.456 And the quietest future sits inside Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Abel's home turf, where Iowa data centers already draw 8% of peak load and the utility is spending $33 billion over three years to feed the AI build-out7.

The pattern is recognizably Berkshire — buy real assets with durable cash flows — but the tempo is new: more operating companies, fewer stock-market splashes, and a successor whose sourcing runs through utilities and industry rather than Wall Street relationships. The honest open question is scale: $16 billion of deals barely dents $365 billion, and the elephant gun Buffett carried remains loaded. Watch the deal cadence — whether Abel's first year was an opening sprint or the new steady state — the Japan stakes' next increments, and BHE's data-center capex converting into rate-base earnings the conglomerate can compound for decades.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Widening in the only way Berkshire widens — deployment: $16B of whole companies, the Japan set completed above 10%, cash finally drawn down from its record, and BHE's capex surging to meet AI demand. The tempo is new even where the playbook is old.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Capital deployed in Abel's first half
$9.7B for businesses, $11.6B of net stock buying and $4.8B of buybacks in H1 2026

Cash fell from $397.4B to $365.5B. A first year that deploys less than the operating businesses earn would mean the pile grows again.

Source: Berkshire Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
The Abel Era's First Deals
The succession worry was paralysis; the answer was OxyChem and a homebuilder — the old playbook, run at a new tempo.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
The Japan Compounder
Fifteen billion in, thirty-five billion out and still compounding — Berkshire's model, purchased abroad at half the multiple it trades at home.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
The $365 Billion Question
The pile finally fell — $397 billion to $365 billion in a quarter — and the elephant gun is still loaded.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
BHE & the AI-Power Dividend
Berkshire's AI exposure wears a hard hat — data-center demand entering a regulated rate base, converting the boom into decades of sanctioned returns.
References
  1. ReportedThe Abel era opened with checkbooks, not speeches: OxyChem, agreed for $9.7 billion and closed on 2 January at about $9.4 billion, and the homebuilder Taylor Morrison, about $6.8 billion, closed on 24 July: roughly $16 billion of whole companies in seven months.
    The Motley Fool — Abel's first-year deployment: OxyChem ($9.7B) + Taylor Morrison homebuilder ($6.8B, Jun 2026) ≈ $16.2B of whole companies in H1 2026; ~$19.8B of net stock buying per 13F; cash ~$344B, off the record — H1 2026 · publ. Aug 3, 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe Abel era opened with checkbooks, not speeches: OxyChem, agreed for $9.7 billion and closed on 2 January at about $9.4 billion, and the homebuilder Taylor Morrison, about $6.8 billion, closed on 24 July: roughly $16 billion of whole companies in seven months.
    Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - after-tax earnings (underwriting $1,731M vs $1,992M, insurance investment income $3,059M vs $3,367M, BNSF $1,558M vs $1,466M, BHE $891M vs $702M, manufacturing, service and retailing $4,470M vs $3,601M, investment gains $12,684M, net earnings $25,667M); GEICO pre-tax underwriting $994M vs $1,821M, combined ratio 91.2% vs 83.5%; Reinsurance $913M vs $650M; float $177.5B; insurance and other cash and Treasury Bills net $359.2B; consolidated cash $35,096M + $324,905M + $5,513M; equity securities $323.8B; H1 purchases of equities $39.4B and sales $27.8B; acquisitions of businesses net of cash $9.7B; $4.8B of treasury stock acquired in H1, most in Q2; OxyChem about $9.4B on 2 January; Taylor Morrison agreed 31 May at $72.50 a share, about $6.8B, closed 24 July; notes payable of insurance and other $43.3B; shareholders' equity $747.9B; BNSF revenue $6,601M vs $5,769M, fuel $1,173M vs $698M; BHE revenue $6,735M vs $6,418M; investment income down 9.1% on lower interest rates — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe Japan wager crossed a threshold: over 10% of all five trading houses, a position built for $15.4 billion and worth more than double that.
    Hedge Fund Alpha — Berkshire crossed 10% in Sumitomo and Marubeni (May 7, 2026), completing >10% stakes in all five Japanese trading houses (Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo) — May 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe cash pile itself became the story — down from a $397.4 billion record at the end of March to $365.5 billion in June as capital finally moved.
    Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q, quarter ended 31 March 2026 - insurance and other cash and cash equivalents $51,478M and Treasury Bills $339,261M, railroad, utilities and energy cash $6,644M (consolidated $397.4B); insurance and other cash and Treasury Bills net of payables $373.5B; equity securities $288.0B; OxyChem acquired 2 January 2026 — Q1 2026 · publ. May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe cash pile itself became the story — down from a $397.4 billion record at the end of March to $365.5 billion in June as capital finally moved.
    Berkshire Hathaway Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - after-tax earnings (underwriting $1,731M vs $1,992M, insurance investment income $3,059M vs $3,367M, BNSF $1,558M vs $1,466M, BHE $891M vs $702M, manufacturing, service and retailing $4,470M vs $3,601M, investment gains $12,684M, net earnings $25,667M); GEICO pre-tax underwriting $994M vs $1,821M, combined ratio 91.2% vs 83.5%; Reinsurance $913M vs $650M; float $177.5B; insurance and other cash and Treasury Bills net $359.2B; consolidated cash $35,096M + $324,905M + $5,513M; equity securities $323.8B; H1 purchases of equities $39.4B and sales $27.8B; acquisitions of businesses net of cash $9.7B; $4.8B of treasury stock acquired in H1, most in Q2; OxyChem about $9.4B on 2 January; Taylor Morrison agreed 31 May at $72.50 a share, about $6.8B, closed 24 July; notes payable of insurance and other $43.3B; shareholders' equity $747.9B; BNSF revenue $6,601M vs $5,769M, fuel $1,173M vs $698M; BHE revenue $6,735M vs $6,418M; investment income down 9.1% on lower interest rates — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. Moat Explorer calcThe cash pile itself became the story — down from a $397.4 billion record at the end of March to $365.5 billion in June as capital finally moved.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Berkshire's Forms 10-K FY2016-FY2025 and 10-Qs for Q1 and Q2 2026: operating earnings = net earnings less after-tax investment gains and the 2025 impairments (FY2023 $37,350M, FY2024 $47,437M, FY2025 $44,486M; Q2 2026 $12,983M vs $11,160M; H1 2026 $24,329M vs $20,801M); consolidated cash and Treasury Bills $397.4B (31 March 2026) and $365.5B (30 June 2026); underwriting as a share of float; OxyChem at 2.6% of the cash pile; five-line after-tax earnings sums — 2016 to Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  7. ReportedAnd the quietest future sits inside Berkshire Hathaway Energy, Abel's home turf, where Iowa data centers already draw 8% of peak load and the utility is spending $33 billion over three years to feed the AI build-out.
    The Motley Fool — Berkshire Hathaway Energy and AI power demand: Iowa data centers ~8% of peak load (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple campuses); Abel projects ~50% demand growth in five years; BHE capex $33.3B for 2026-2028, MidAmerican's 3-yr budget +65% — 2026 · publ. Jul 17, 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026