AWS: Where the Contracts LiveNarrow moat

Amazon (AMZN) — moat facet

A ten-year commitment from a bank is money; the same commitment from a lab whose revenues trail its obligations is a forecast with a signature on it.

AWS is the only part of Amazon whose customers sign long commitments, which makes it structurally different from everything else the company does. Its backlog was $496 billion of contracted, not-yet-recognised revenue at the end of June 2026, up from $244 billion six months earlier1, spread across the enterprises, governments and startups that have run on AWS for the better part of two decades.

What filled the AWS backlog in the first half of 2026 ($B)Backlog at Dec 2025$244BOpenAI expansion (Q1)+$100BAnthropic expansion (Q2)+$100B+All other customers, net+$52BAmazon Forms 10-K FY2025 and 10-Q Q2 2026; the $52B is calc, $496B less the rest
Two laboratories account for about $200B of the $252B added to the backlog in six months.

The composition has been changing quickly. AI laboratories now commit at a scale no ordinary enterprise approaches — Anthropic agreed to spend more than $100 billion with AWS while Amazon invested up to $25 billion into it and dedicated gigawatts of Trainium capacity to serving it2. The filings put a size on the change: OpenAI expanded its existing $38.0 billion commitment by $100.0 billion over eight years in the first quarter of 2026, and Anthropic its own by more than $100.0 billion over ten years in the second3, so roughly $200 billion of the $252 billion added in six months came from two customers. That is excellent business and the same circular structure visible on Microsoft's and Alphabet's client pages: the supplier funds the customer that funds the supplier.

The distinction worth holding is between contracted and creditworthy. A ten-year commitment from a bank is money; the same commitment from a laboratory whose revenues are a fraction of its obligations is a forecast with a signature on it. Watch AWS backlog conversion into recognised revenue, and watch how much of the growth comes from customers Amazon has also invested in — that proportion is the cleanest measure of how much of this demand is genuinely external.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

Backlog keeps growing, but the composition is shifting toward AI laboratories whose commitments exceed their revenues and which Amazon has itself financed — the same circular structure visible on Microsoft's and Alphabet's client pages. Contracted is not the same as creditworthy, and that distinction is becoming more load-bearing each quarter.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
AWS backlog added in the first half of 2026
$252B ($244B to $496B)

More backlog arrived in six months than in the previous decade combined, most of it from two AI laboratories. Growth that continues with a wider spread of customers would ease the concentration; growth from the same two would deepen it.

How it's calculated: 496 - 244 ($B, commitments not yet recognized for contracts with original terms above one year).
Source: Amazon Form 10-K FY2025 and Form 10-Q Q2 2026 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIts backlog was $496 billion of contracted, not-yet-recognised revenue at the end of June 2026, up from $244 billion six months earlier, spread across the enterprises, governments and startups that have run on AWS for the better part of two decades.
    Amazon.com Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 — purchases of property and equipment $54,208M in Q2 2026; remaining performance obligations of approximately $496 billion (weighted-average remaining life 6.4 years), after OpenAI expanded its existing $38.0 billion commitment by $100.0 billion over 8.0 years in Q1 2026 and Anthropic expanded its commitment by more than $100.0 billion over 10.0 years in Q2 2026; upward adjustments to private equity investments of $50.5 billion in Q2 2026 and $62.8 billion in the six months, primarily nonvoting preferred stock in Anthropic; about $640 million of IEEPA tariff refunds recorded mainly as a reduction to cost of sales; shipping costs $27.9 billion against $23.4 billion — Q2 2026 — quarter ended June 30, 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAI laboratories now commit at a scale no ordinary enterprise approaches — Anthropic agreed to spend more than $100 billion with AWS while Amazon invested up to $25 billion into it and dedicated gigawatts of Trainium capacity to serving it.
    Anthropic — expanded Amazon collaboration (Apr 20, 2026): up to $25B total investment ($5B immediate + $20B milestone-linked; ~$13B cumulative prior), >$100B of AWS commitments over the next decade, up to 5GW of new Trainium capacity — Announced Apr 20, 2026 · publ. Apr 20, 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe filings put a size on the change: OpenAI expanded its existing $38.0 billion commitment by $100.0 billion over eight years in the first quarter of 2026, and Anthropic its own by more than $100.0 billion over ten years in the second, so roughly $200 billion of the $252 billion added in six months came from two customers.
    Amazon.com Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 — purchases of property and equipment $54,208M in Q2 2026; remaining performance obligations of approximately $496 billion (weighted-average remaining life 6.4 years), after OpenAI expanded its existing $38.0 billion commitment by $100.0 billion over 8.0 years in Q1 2026 and Anthropic expanded its commitment by more than $100.0 billion over 10.0 years in Q2 2026; upward adjustments to private equity investments of $50.5 billion in Q2 2026 and $62.8 billion in the six months, primarily nonvoting preferred stock in Anthropic; about $640 million of IEEPA tariff refunds recorded mainly as a reduction to cost of sales; shipping costs $27.9 billion against $23.4 billion — Q2 2026 — quarter ended June 30, 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 22, 2026