The $7.8 Billion in a Market AMD Is Being Removed FromThin moat

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) — moat facet

No product improvement, price or relationship addresses an export restriction — and the excluded customers buy domestic instead.

AMD sold $7,751 million into China including Hong Kong in 2025, out of $34,639 million total — more than a fifth of the company1. It is the second largest geography after the United States and has grown in absolute terms every year.

Revenue from China including Hong Kong ($bn)$4.10bn2021$5.21bn2022$3.42bn2023$6.23bn2024$7.75bn2025AMD Forms 10-K FY2023 and FY2025, by billing location
China revenue reached a record in the year export controls tightened.

It is also the market AMD is being progressively excluded from. The company recorded approximately $440 million of net inventory and related charges in 2025 associated with US government export controls on its Instinct accelerators — product built for customers it was subsequently not permitted to sell to. That is what a policy-driven demand loss looks like in the accounts: not a decline in orders but a write-down of things already made.

The strategic problem is that this revenue cannot be replaced by competing harder. No product improvement, price or relationship addresses an export restriction, and the affected customers do not stop buying — they buy domestic alternatives, which accelerates exactly the competitor AMD would least like to create.

Watch China revenue as a share of total. A steady decline means the bifurcation is proceeding and AMD's addressable market is shrinking; a sudden one would mean another policy change, and another round of charges for inventory that can no longer be shipped.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

China including Hong Kong was $7,751M of $34,639M in 2025, and AMD took roughly $440M of inventory and related charges on export controls affecting Instinct. This exposure cannot be defended commercially, the excluded customers substitute domestic product, and every further restriction accelerates the competitor AMD would least like to create.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue from China including Hong Kong
$7,751M of $34,639M — over a fifth

AMD recorded roughly $440M of net inventory and related charges in 2025 on US export controls affecting Instinct accelerators — product built for customers it could no longer sell to. No commercial action addresses an export restriction. Watch China as a share of total revenue.

Source: AMD Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedChina including Hong Kong was $7,751M of $34,639M of FY2025 revenue, and ~$440M of net inventory and related charges were recorded on US export controls affecting Instinct.
    AMD Form 10-K, FY2025 — no customer accounted for at least 10% of consolidated net revenue in fiscal 2025 or 2024; one Client and Gaming segment customer accounted for 18% of consolidated net revenue in fiscal 2023; one customer accounted for approximately 11% of total consolidated accounts receivable at December 27, 2025 and another accounted for 24% at December 28, 2024; sales to external customers by geography were United States $11,363M, China including Hong Kong $7,751M, Taiwan $5,186M, Singapore $4,284M and other regions $6,055M of $34,639M total; revenue recognized over time associated with custom products and development services was approximately 9%, 8% and 25% of revenue in 2025, 2024 and 2023; approximately $440M of net inventory and related charges were recorded in 2025 associated with the U.S. government export control on AMD Instinct accelerators — FY2025 (ended December 27, 2025) · publ. February 4, 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026