✦ The Future BetsNarrow moat

VeriSign (VRSN) — the future bets

Three of these are arithmetic you can do on one sheet of paper. The fourth is the first uncapped price VeriSign has ever set.

VeriSign's future is unusually easy to describe and unusually hard to be excited about, which is why the one genuinely new thing in it is worth attention.

The next four years, in advancePrice steps remainingThree, through 2029Base growth guided for 20265.2% to 6.0%Shares retired per year~3%.web revenue expected in 2026None meaningfulThree of these are arithmetic. The fourth is the first genuinely new product in years.
You can model this company to 2030 without an opinion about anything.

Three of the four items here are arithmetic. The .com price rose from $10.26 to $10.97 on 1 November 2026, and three further 7% steps are contractually available before the current six-year period ends — each one worth roughly $115 million of near-pure operating income.1 The share count falls about 3% a year and the board keeps refilling a $1.50 billion buyback authorisation.2 The domain name base is guided to grow 5.2% to 6.0% in 2026.3 Put those together and you can model this company to 2029 on a single sheet of paper without needing an opinion about anything.

The fourth item is .web, and it is the first genuinely new product VeriSign has launched in a very long time. On 22 July 2026 .web was delegated into the root zone with VeriSign as registry operator, ending a dispute that began with a $135 million auction in 2016 and ran through a decade of arbitration.4 The $145.2 million sitting on the balance sheet as deposits to acquire intangible assets has finally bought something.5 Management expects no meaningful revenue or expense from it in 2026.

The reason .web matters out of proportion to its likely size is that it carries no price cap. Everything constraining .com — the 7% ceiling, the Department of Commerce approval, the vertical-integration restrictions — applies to .com specifically.6 For the first time VeriSign will operate a top-level domain the way its competitors operate theirs: pricing to value, free to bundle, free to experiment. Whatever it does with .web is the closest thing available to a controlled experiment on what the .com constraints have cost.

The fourth avenue is the one VeriSign has not committed to. ICANN's 2026 application round closed on 12 August with more than 1,600 applications at $227,000 each, and management said it was taking the technical steps to be ready to apply without committing to do so.7 Whether or not VeriSign applied, more than a thousand new registries are coming — and the .com agreement's own renewal terms are benchmarked against the five largest gTLDs.

None of this changes the shape of the company. VeriSign in 2030 will be a toll on the internet's address book with a slightly higher toll, slightly more names and about 20% fewer shares. The bets are about whether there is anything else.

Moat trajectory: Widening

For the first time in a decade VeriSign has something new: .web delegated, a price ladder restarted, and more than a thousand new registries arriving into a market it has always dominated. The optionality is small, but it is larger than it was a year ago.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Revenue, latest quarter
$434.6M in Q2 2026, +6.0%

The bets are small next to the core; revenue growth staying near 6% is the base they have to add to.

Source: VeriSign, Inc. second-quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1) ↗
✦ Future bets — beyond today's moat
✦ FUTURE BET 01
.web, Ten Years and $145 Million Later
A decade of arbitration bought VeriSign the one thing .com will never give it: permission to charge whatever it likes.
✦ FUTURE BET 02
The Price Ladder Restarts
Roughly $115 million of near-pure operating income per step, four steps available, and VeriSign has to do precisely nothing to collect it.
✦ FUTURE BET 03
The 2026 gTLD Round
More than a thousand new registries are coming, and the .com agreement's renewal terms are benchmarked against exactly that field.
✦ FUTURE BET 04
Ninety Million Shares and Falling
The most certain thing here is that there will be fewer shares — which is how 6% revenue growth becomes 10% per share.
References
  1. ReportedThe .com wholesale fee rose from $10.26 to $10.97 on 1 November 2026, with three further 7% steps contractually available.
    Domain Name Wire — Verisign raising wholesale .com prices. Effective 1 November 2026 the annual registry fee rises 7% from $10.26 to $10.97, the first change since September 2024 and the first of four increases available in the six-year pricing period that began on 26 October 2024; taking all four would lift the price to roughly $13.42. — 2026 · publ. 2026-04-23 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe board restored the share repurchase authorisation to $1.50 billion in July 2026.
    VeriSign, Inc., Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results — Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 23 July 2026. Revenue $435 million, up 6.0% year over year; operating income $296 million against $281 million; net income $217 million and diluted EPS $2.38 against $207 million and $2.21. Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities $1.03 billion, up $454 million from year-end 2025; deferred revenues $1.45 billion at 30 June 2026, up $64 million from year-end. Cash flow from operations $232 million. On 26 June 2026 VeriSign issued $550 million of 5.10% Senior Notes due 2031 and on 20 July 2026 used the proceeds with cash on hand to redeem $550 million of 4.75% Senior Notes due 2027. 0.7 million shares repurchased for $197 million; an additional $884 million authorised effective 23 July 2026 bringing the total authorisation to $1.50 billion; a quarterly dividend of $0.81 per share declared on 20 July 2026. The domain name base ended at 179.1 million .com and .net registrations, a 5.1% increase year over year and a net increase of 3.05 million in the quarter; a record 12.7 million new registrations were processed against 10.4 million; the final first-quarter 2026 renewal rate was 76.3% against 75.5%. CEO Jim Bidzos: the record of 100% availability for the .com and .net domain name resolution system was extended to 29 years, and more than 100% of free cash flow was returned to the investing public through dividends and share repurchases. The .web top-level domain has been delegated into the DNS root zone with VeriSign as the designated registry operator. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-23 · source ↗
  3. ReportedManagement guided the domain name base to grow 5.2% to 6.0% in 2026 and expects no meaningful .web revenue or expense this year.
    VeriSign, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (SEC, CIK 1014473). Revenues $434.6M for the quarter and $863.5M for the six months, each up 6%; operating income $296.3M and $589.9M, up 6% and 7%. Net income $216.5M and $431.0M; diluted EPS $2.38 and $4.71 on 91.1 and 91.4 million diluted shares. Total assets $1,802.8M; deferred revenues $1,084.8M current and $364.1M long-term; current senior notes $549.3M and long-term senior notes $1,785.1M. Net cash provided by operating activities $504.0M for the six months against $493.8M; deferred revenues increased $64.5M. 90,300,000 shares of common stock were outstanding at 17 July 2026. The domain name base was 179.1 million at 30 June 2026, up 5.1%; 12.7 million new registrations were processed in the quarter; the final first-quarter 2026 renewal rate was 76.3%. $666.0 million remained for repurchases at 30 June 2026 before an additional $884.2 million was authorised effective 23 July 2026. — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-23 · source ↗
  4. Reported.web was delegated into the DNS root zone with VeriSign as registry operator on 22 July 2026, ending a dispute that began with a $135 million auction in 2016.
    Coverage of ICANN's completed delegation of the .web top-level domain, July 2026 — .web was delegated into the DNS root zone with VeriSign as designated registry operator on 22 July 2026, ending a dispute that began when Nu Dot Co outbid Afilias at $135 million in the July 2016 ICANN auction with VeriSign financing the bid; the remaining disputes were resolved on confidential terms. VeriSign plans to offer .web through its registrar channel in the second half of 2026, following a sunrise period for trademark holders, a limited early-access window and general availability. — 2026 · publ. 2026-07-23 · source ↗
  5. ReportedVeriSign carries $145.2M of deposits to acquire intangible assets on its balance sheet.
    VeriSign, Inc., Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 8, consolidated financial statements and notes. Net income $825.7M (2024 $785.7M, 2023 $817.6M); diluted EPS $8.81 ($8.00, $7.90) on 93.8 million diluted shares (98.2, 103.5); income before income taxes $1,068.5M; income tax expense $242.8M. Balance sheet at 31 December 2025: cash and cash equivalents $307.9M, marketable securities $272.6M, property and equipment net $213.7M, goodwill $52.5M, deferred tax assets $233.2M, deposits to acquire intangible assets $145.2M, total assets $1,325.9M; accounts payable and accrued liabilities $298.0M, deferred revenues $1,035.1M current and $349.4M long-term, long-term senior notes $1,788.2M, total current liabilities $1,333.1M — a total stockholders' deficit with an accumulated deficit above $11.3 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities $1,091.1M; the deferred revenues balance increased $80.2M in 2025 ($58.1M in 2024, $27.0M in 2023) and $934.7M of revenue recognised in 2025 had been in the opening deferred balance. Major customers note: the largest customer accounted for approximately 31% of revenues in 2025 and approximately 32% in 2024 and 2023, and the Company does not believe the loss of this customer would have a material adverse effect because end-users would transfer to its other existing customers. Dividends of $0.77 per share were declared in each of the three quarters from the second quarter of 2025, totalling $2.31 per share and $215.2M, accounted for as a reduction of additional paid-in capital; a dividend of $0.81 per share was declared on 3 February 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-05 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe .com price cap, Department of Commerce approval requirement and vertical-integration restrictions apply to .com specifically; .web carries no equivalent price restriction.
    Analysis of the .web delegation — unlike .com, whose wholesale price is capped by the registry agreement and whose pricing section requires U.S. Department of Commerce approval to change, .web carries no equivalent price restriction. — 2026 · publ. 2026-07-24 · source ↗
  7. ReportedICANN's 2026 application round closed on 12 August 2026 with more than 1,600 applications at an evaluation fee of $227,000 each, and management said it was preparing to be able to apply without committing.
    ICANN — the New gTLD Program 2026 Round application submission window closed on 12 August 2026 with more than 1,600 primary applications received, of which more than 1,100 included applications for replacement strings; final totals are confirmed on payment of the evaluation fee. — 2026 · publ. 2026-08-13 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026