The Cost & Risk of SwitchingWide moat

TSMC (TSM) — moat facet

Re-designing a flagship chip for an inferior process — the move almost no one dares.

The switching costs that keep TSMC's customers in place are among the highest in any industry, and they are multi-dimensional. Moving a leading-edge design from TSMC to another foundry would require re-engineering the chip for a different process with different design rules — a massive, expensive undertaking of many months or years. It would carry the risk that the new foundry's yields and reliability fall short, jeopardizing the product. It would mean re-qualifying the design, potentially missing a market window worth far more than any manufacturing savings. And it would mean rebuilding around a different, thinner ecosystem of tools and IP.

Cost to design a leading-edge chip (US$M, IBS estimate)$249M7nm chip$725M2nm chipIBS figures quoted in Arm's IPO prospectus (Form 424B4, September 2023)
A 2nm design costs about three times a 7nm one, and moving foundries means paying much of it again.

Worst of all, the customer would be switching to an inferior process — trading TSMC's leading edge for a rival a generation or more behind. For a company whose entire competitiveness rests on having the best chip, accepting a worse process to escape TSMC is close to unthinkable; it would mean shipping a product that loses to competitors who stayed with TSMC. The combination — enormous redesign cost, real execution risk, schedule delay, ecosystem loss, and an inferior end result — makes switching not merely expensive but strategically self-defeating while TSMC leads. This is why the leading customers have stayed generation after generation: the switching cost is not just money, it is competitiveness itself, and no rational designer trades a winning chip for a losing one to change suppliers. The lock-in is enforced by the customer's own self-interest — and by arithmetic: with 90%-plus of leading-edge output at TSMC, there is scarcely anywhere else to go1.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Stable. Switching means redesigning for an inferior process — a near-prohibitive cost that holds as long as TSMC leads, but is contingent on that lead rather than independently widening.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Capital expenditure
NT$1,272.4bn in 2025, from NT$956.0bn

Leaving TSMC means redesigning for a rival process that has had far less money spent on it. TSMC's spending growing this fast widens the gap a customer would have to accept.

Source: TSMC Form 20-F, FY2025 ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
References
  1. Third-party estimate90%+ of leading-edge output is at TSMC.
    TrendForce / Counterpoint foundry-share trackers — TSMC ~70% of the foundry market; 90%+ of leading-edge production — 2025-2026 · publ. 2025-2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026