⚠ A Prepaid Balance Is a LiabilityLow threat

Starbucks (SBUX) — threat to the moat

A prepaid balance is coffee promised at last year's prices, redeemed at this year's costs — a short position in your own menu.

1. ReportedThe stored value card liability and current portion of deferred revenue was $1,840.6 million at September 2025, and the underlying obligation is real: every dollar loaded is a promise to hand over coffee later, at a price set later, with labour and product costs incurred later.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Note 11, Deferred Revenue, Note 17, Segment Reporting, Note 18, Restructuring, and Note 19, Subsequent Event. During fiscal 2018 Starbucks licensed the rights to sell and market its products in authorized channels through the Global Coffee Alliance and received an up-front prepaid royalty from Nestlé; the up-front payment of approximately $7 billion was recorded as deferred revenue because Starbucks has continuing performance obligations to support the alliance, including providing Nestlé access to certain intellectual properties and products for future resale, and is being recognised as other revenue on a straight-line basis over the estimated economic life of the arrangement of 40 years (a term beginning in fiscal 2018 and therefore running to 2058), a ratable pattern reflecting obligations that are generally constant throughout the term. As of 28 September 2025 the current and long-term deferred revenue related to the Nestlé up-front payment was $177.0 million and $5.6 billion respectively, against $177.0 million and $5.8 billion a year earlier, and Starbucks recognised $176.5 million of prepaid royalty revenue related to Nestlé in each of fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Changes in the deferred revenue balance for stored value cards and the loyalty program: opening balance at 29 September 2024 of $1,718.7 million, revenue deferred from card activations, card reloads and Stars earned of $15,245.8 million, revenue recognised from card and Stars redemptions and breakage of $(15,199.5) million, other $(13.3) million, closing balance at 28 September 2025 of $1,751.7 million; the prior year ran from $1,567.5 million with $15,807.1 million deferred and $(15,665.1) million recognised. For the fiscal years ended 28 September 2025, 29 September 2024 and 1 October 2023, Starbucks recognised breakage revenue of $200.4 million, $187.6 million and $196.1 million in company-operated store revenues, and $22.0 million, $20.0 million and $18.9 million in licensed store revenues. Total breakage recognised in fiscal 2025 across company-operated and licensed store revenues was therefore $222.4 million. Customers who register their stored value card in the US, Canada and certain other countries are automatically enrolled in Starbucks Rewards, primarily a spend-based loyalty program in which members earn Stars; in many company-operated markets including the US the cards do not expire and no service fees decrement balances, and a portion is recognised as breakage over time in proportion to redemptions based on historical redemption rates by market. Segment revenue mix by product type: beverage $22,539.9M (61%), food $7,049.9M (19%), other $7,594.6M (20%) for fiscal 2025. Information by geographic area: net revenues United States $27,124.7M, China $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M; long-lived assets United States $15,952.7M, China $4,276.8M, other countries $4,407.9M; no customer accounts for 10% or more of revenues. Segment financials fiscal 2025: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M; fiscal 2024: $27,009.5M, $7,338.9M, $1,769.8M, $58.0M; fiscal 2023: $26,569.6M, $7,487.6M, $1,893.8M. On 3 November 2025 Starbucks announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks retail in China, under which Boyu will acquire up to a 60% interest based on a cash-free, debt-free mutually agreed total enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, with Starbucks retaining a 40% interest and continuing to own and license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the new entity, expected to close by early calendar year 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
2. ReportedThe exposure is bounded because balances turn over quickly; the filing says the majority of stored value cards are redeemed within a year.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Note 11, Deferred Revenue, Note 17, Segment Reporting, Note 18, Restructuring, and Note 19, Subsequent Event. During fiscal 2018 Starbucks licensed the rights to sell and market its products in authorized channels through the Global Coffee Alliance and received an up-front prepaid royalty from Nestlé; the up-front payment of approximately $7 billion was recorded as deferred revenue because Starbucks has continuing performance obligations to support the alliance, including providing Nestlé access to certain intellectual properties and products for future resale, and is being recognised as other revenue on a straight-line basis over the estimated economic life of the arrangement of 40 years (a term beginning in fiscal 2018 and therefore running to 2058), a ratable pattern reflecting obligations that are generally constant throughout the term. As of 28 September 2025 the current and long-term deferred revenue related to the Nestlé up-front payment was $177.0 million and $5.6 billion respectively, against $177.0 million and $5.8 billion a year earlier, and Starbucks recognised $176.5 million of prepaid royalty revenue related to Nestlé in each of fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Changes in the deferred revenue balance for stored value cards and the loyalty program: opening balance at 29 September 2024 of $1,718.7 million, revenue deferred from card activations, card reloads and Stars earned of $15,245.8 million, revenue recognised from card and Stars redemptions and breakage of $(15,199.5) million, other $(13.3) million, closing balance at 28 September 2025 of $1,751.7 million; the prior year ran from $1,567.5 million with $15,807.1 million deferred and $(15,665.1) million recognised. For the fiscal years ended 28 September 2025, 29 September 2024 and 1 October 2023, Starbucks recognised breakage revenue of $200.4 million, $187.6 million and $196.1 million in company-operated store revenues, and $22.0 million, $20.0 million and $18.9 million in licensed store revenues. Total breakage recognised in fiscal 2025 across company-operated and licensed store revenues was therefore $222.4 million. Customers who register their stored value card in the US, Canada and certain other countries are automatically enrolled in Starbucks Rewards, primarily a spend-based loyalty program in which members earn Stars; in many company-operated markets including the US the cards do not expire and no service fees decrement balances, and a portion is recognised as breakage over time in proportion to redemptions based on historical redemption rates by market. Segment revenue mix by product type: beverage $22,539.9M (61%), food $7,049.9M (19%), other $7,594.6M (20%) for fiscal 2025. Information by geographic area: net revenues United States $27,124.7M, China $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M; long-lived assets United States $15,952.7M, China $4,276.8M, other countries $4,407.9M; no customer accounts for 10% or more of revenues. Segment financials fiscal 2025: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M; fiscal 2024: $27,009.5M, $7,338.9M, $1,769.8M, $58.0M; fiscal 2023: $26,569.6M, $7,487.6M, $1,893.8M. On 3 November 2025 Starbucks announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks retail in China, under which Boyu will acquire up to a 60% interest based on a cash-free, debt-free mutually agreed total enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, with Starbucks retaining a 40% interest and continuing to own and license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the new entity, expected to close by early calendar year 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
3. ReportedBut the direction is unambiguous: rapid input-cost inflation makes the float less valuable, and Starbucks has flagged both new tariffs and "dynamic coffee prices" as continuing pressures.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis. Total net revenues increased 3% to $37.2 billion in fiscal 2025 compared to $36.2 billion; consolidated operating income decreased to $2.9 billion from $5.4 billion, with an operating margin of 7.9% against 15.0% — a contraction of 710 basis points primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses and simplification of the support organisation (approximately 240 basis points), deleverage (approximately 210 basis points), investments in support of Back to Starbucks largely in labour hours (approximately 130 basis points) and inflation (approximately 80 basis points). Diluted EPS declined to $1.63 from $3.31. Capital expenditures were $2.3 billion against $2.8 billion, and $2.8 billion was returned to shareholders against $3.8 billion. Consolidated net revenues by type: company-operated stores $30,744.8M (+3.3%), licensed stores $4,350.4M (-3.4%), other $2,089.2M (+9.7%). Company-operated store revenue rose $979 million on net new company-operated store growth of 5%, or 1,010 stores, prior to the 627 restructuring closures late in the fourth quarter, plus $131 million from the conversion of 113 licensed stores following the 23.5 Degrees acquisition, partially offset by a 1% decline in comparable store sales ($408 million) attributable to a 2% decline in comparable transactions partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket, primarily due to annualization of prior year pricing. By segment: North America total net revenues $27,373.1M (company-operated $24,793.0M at 90.6%, licensed $2,575.6M), operating income $3,156.7M with the margin contracting 830 basis points to 11.5% driven by deleverage (approximately 310 basis points), restructuring (approximately 240) and Back to Starbucks investments largely in labour hours (approximately 180); North America revenue rose 1% on net new company-operated store growth of 4%, or 441 stores, prior to the 584 restructuring closures, offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket; store operating expenses were 56.4% of related revenues against 51.4%. International total net revenues $7,819.9M (+7%), operating income $950.0M at a 12.1% margin, contracting 210 basis points. Channel Development net revenues $1,871.7M (+6%), operating income $885.1M at a 47.3% margin, contracting 500 basis points primarily driven by a decline in North American Coffee Partnership joint venture income (approximately 350 basis points) and higher global product costs (approximately 90 basis points), with income from equity investees of $249.6M. Corporate and Other operating loss $(2,055.2)M. Cash and investments were $3.7 billion. Store closures in North America were substantially completed in fiscal 2025 and international closures were expected to complete in the first half of fiscal 2026; Starbucks expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by sales transfer to nearby coffeehouses, and expects the future impact on operating margins to be slightly accretive. The Green Apron Service model went live across the full US company-operated store portfolio in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, and Starbucks expects macroeconomic challenges including new tariffs and dynamic coffee prices to continue. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
4. ReportedThat would take a $222.4 million revenue line down with no operating cause.
   Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Note 11, Deferred Revenue, Note 17, Segment Reporting, Note 18, Restructuring, and Note 19, Subsequent Event. During fiscal 2018 Starbucks licensed the rights to sell and market its products in authorized channels through the Global Coffee Alliance and received an up-front prepaid royalty from Nestlé; the up-front payment of approximately $7 billion was recorded as deferred revenue because Starbucks has continuing performance obligations to support the alliance, including providing Nestlé access to certain intellectual properties and products for future resale, and is being recognised as other revenue on a straight-line basis over the estimated economic life of the arrangement of 40 years (a term beginning in fiscal 2018 and therefore running to 2058), a ratable pattern reflecting obligations that are generally constant throughout the term. As of 28 September 2025 the current and long-term deferred revenue related to the Nestlé up-front payment was $177.0 million and $5.6 billion respectively, against $177.0 million and $5.8 billion a year earlier, and Starbucks recognised $176.5 million of prepaid royalty revenue related to Nestlé in each of fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Changes in the deferred revenue balance for stored value cards and the loyalty program: opening balance at 29 September 2024 of $1,718.7 million, revenue deferred from card activations, card reloads and Stars earned of $15,245.8 million, revenue recognised from card and Stars redemptions and breakage of $(15,199.5) million, other $(13.3) million, closing balance at 28 September 2025 of $1,751.7 million; the prior year ran from $1,567.5 million with $15,807.1 million deferred and $(15,665.1) million recognised. For the fiscal years ended 28 September 2025, 29 September 2024 and 1 October 2023, Starbucks recognised breakage revenue of $200.4 million, $187.6 million and $196.1 million in company-operated store revenues, and $22.0 million, $20.0 million and $18.9 million in licensed store revenues. Total breakage recognised in fiscal 2025 across company-operated and licensed store revenues was therefore $222.4 million. Customers who register their stored value card in the US, Canada and certain other countries are automatically enrolled in Starbucks Rewards, primarily a spend-based loyalty program in which members earn Stars; in many company-operated markets including the US the cards do not expire and no service fees decrement balances, and a portion is recognised as breakage over time in proportion to redemptions based on historical redemption rates by market. Segment revenue mix by product type: beverage $22,539.9M (61%), food $7,049.9M (19%), other $7,594.6M (20%) for fiscal 2025. Information by geographic area: net revenues United States $27,124.7M, China $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M; long-lived assets United States $15,952.7M, China $4,276.8M, other countries $4,407.9M; no customer accounts for 10% or more of revenues. Segment financials fiscal 2025: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M; fiscal 2024: $27,009.5M, $7,338.9M, $1,769.8M, $58.0M; fiscal 2023: $26,569.6M, $7,487.6M, $1,893.8M. On 3 November 2025 Starbucks announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks retail in China, under which Boyu will acquire up to a 60% interest based on a cash-free, debt-free mutually agreed total enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, with Starbucks retaining a 40% interest and continuing to own and license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the new entity, expected to close by early calendar year 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗

• Starbucks Corporation Form 10-K, FY2025 (SEC EDGAR)