The MoatWide moat

Starbucks (SBUX) — moat facet

This is the cleanest demonstration in the collection that a moat and a return on capital are different things: the brand did not weaken while returns halved.

Starbucks is the cleanest demonstration in this collection that a moat and a return on capital are different things.

Return on invested capital, FY2015-FY2025 (%)WACC ~7%38.4%201537.7%201636.1%201734.9%201832.7%20198.8%202022.2%202121.9%202227.5%202323.0%202411.6%20252020 is COVID plus lease accounting adding ~$9bn of assets. 2025 is a choice.
Mid-thirties, then a step down for lease accounting, then a recovery to 27.5% — and then half of it gone in two years.

Over the last two years the brand did not weaken. It sold $22,539.9 million of beverages through more than 41,000 stores in 90 markets, took $15.2 billion of customer money in advance through its cards and loyalty programme, collected $176.5 million from Nestlé for doing nothing, and raised prices without losing the customer.1 Over the same two years, return on invested capital fell from 27.5% to 11.6% and earnings per share went from $3.58 to $1.63.2

Both things are true, and the reconciliation is the whole story: Starbucks chose to spend its moat's earnings on repairing the thing that produces them. Labour hours went back into stores, 627 coffeehouses that could not meet the standard were closed, $892.0 million of restructuring went through the income statement, and the company sold 60% of China rather than keep fighting a losing store war.3

What makes the moat wide is that none of those decisions were forced. A business without pricing power cannot afford a two-year investment programme; it cuts. Starbucks raised the ticket 3.6% in the June quarter while transactions rose 4.2%, which is a customer accepting a higher price and coming more often.4 It is funded interest-free by its own customers. It has a $5.6 billion prepaid annuity from Nestlé running to 2058.5 And it operates in a category where the product is a daily habit and the brand is the default.

The rating is wide and the trajectory is narrowing, which is not a contradiction. The advantage will outlast the decade; the returns it generated for twenty years have halved and have not yet come back.

The number that tests it is return on invested capital. Mid-thirties was the old Starbucks; 11.6% is the current one. Anywhere below the high teens sustained, and the honest verdict changes from a wide moat being repaired to a wide moat being competed away.

Moat trajectory: Narrowing

The brand did not weaken: beverages are still 61% of a record revenue line, the price still holds, and the June quarter delivered 7.9% comparable growth on transactions. What halved is what the moat produces. Return on invested capital went 27.5%, 23.0%, 11.6% and earnings per share $3.58, $3.31, $1.63. Until the returns come back, the honest direction is narrowing.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
Return on invested capital
11.6% in FY2025, against a ~7% hurdle

Down from 27.5% in fiscal 2023 and from the mid-thirties before 2020. The brand did not weaken over those two years — revenue set a record and the price held — so this is the cleanest available demonstration that a moat and the returns it produces are separable. Still above the hurdle. Watch it recover: anywhere below the high teens sustained changes the verdict from a wide moat being repaired to a wide moat being competed away.

How it's calculated: NOPAT / average operating invested capital, computed from SEC EDGAR XBRL. NOPAT = operating income x (1 - effective tax rate); invested capital = total assets - current liabilities - cash. The series for fiscal 2015 to 2025 runs 38.4, 37.7, 36.1, 34.9, 32.7, 8.8, 22.2, 21.9, 27.5, 23.0 and 11.6; the step-down after 2019 reflects the adoption of lease accounting, which added roughly $9bn of right-of-use assets to the denominator. The ~7% hurdle is an assumed cost of capital.
Source: Computed from SEC EDGAR filings ↗
Aspects of the moat
References
  1. ReportedIt sold $22,539.9 million of beverages through more than 41,000 stores in 90 markets, took $15.2 billion of customer money in advance through its cards and loyalty programme, collected $176.5 million from Nestlé for doing nothing, and raised prices without losing the customer.
    Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Note 11, Deferred Revenue, Note 17, Segment Reporting, Note 18, Restructuring, and Note 19, Subsequent Event. During fiscal 2018 Starbucks licensed the rights to sell and market its products in authorized channels through the Global Coffee Alliance and received an up-front prepaid royalty from Nestlé; the up-front payment of approximately $7 billion was recorded as deferred revenue because Starbucks has continuing performance obligations to support the alliance, including providing Nestlé access to certain intellectual properties and products for future resale, and is being recognised as other revenue on a straight-line basis over the estimated economic life of the arrangement of 40 years (a term beginning in fiscal 2018 and therefore running to 2058), a ratable pattern reflecting obligations that are generally constant throughout the term. As of 28 September 2025 the current and long-term deferred revenue related to the Nestlé up-front payment was $177.0 million and $5.6 billion respectively, against $177.0 million and $5.8 billion a year earlier, and Starbucks recognised $176.5 million of prepaid royalty revenue related to Nestlé in each of fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Changes in the deferred revenue balance for stored value cards and the loyalty program: opening balance at 29 September 2024 of $1,718.7 million, revenue deferred from card activations, card reloads and Stars earned of $15,245.8 million, revenue recognised from card and Stars redemptions and breakage of $(15,199.5) million, other $(13.3) million, closing balance at 28 September 2025 of $1,751.7 million; the prior year ran from $1,567.5 million with $15,807.1 million deferred and $(15,665.1) million recognised. For the fiscal years ended 28 September 2025, 29 September 2024 and 1 October 2023, Starbucks recognised breakage revenue of $200.4 million, $187.6 million and $196.1 million in company-operated store revenues, and $22.0 million, $20.0 million and $18.9 million in licensed store revenues. Total breakage recognised in fiscal 2025 across company-operated and licensed store revenues was therefore $222.4 million. Customers who register their stored value card in the US, Canada and certain other countries are automatically enrolled in Starbucks Rewards, primarily a spend-based loyalty program in which members earn Stars; in many company-operated markets including the US the cards do not expire and no service fees decrement balances, and a portion is recognised as breakage over time in proportion to redemptions based on historical redemption rates by market. Segment revenue mix by product type: beverage $22,539.9M (61%), food $7,049.9M (19%), other $7,594.6M (20%) for fiscal 2025. Information by geographic area: net revenues United States $27,124.7M, China $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M; long-lived assets United States $15,952.7M, China $4,276.8M, other countries $4,407.9M; no customer accounts for 10% or more of revenues. Segment financials fiscal 2025: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M; fiscal 2024: $27,009.5M, $7,338.9M, $1,769.8M, $58.0M; fiscal 2023: $26,569.6M, $7,487.6M, $1,893.8M. On 3 November 2025 Starbucks announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks retail in China, under which Boyu will acquire up to a 60% interest based on a cash-free, debt-free mutually agreed total enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, with Starbucks retaining a 40% interest and continuing to own and license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the new entity, expected to close by early calendar year 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
  2. ReportedOver the same two years, return on invested capital fell from 27.5% to 11.6% and earnings per share went from $3.58 to $1.63.
    Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated statements of earnings, balance sheets and cash flows. Net revenues: company-operated stores $30,744.8M, $29,765.9M and $29,462.3M; licensed stores $4,350.4M, $4,505.1M and $4,512.7M; other $2,089.2M, $1,905.2M and $2,000.6M; total $37,184.4M, $36,176.2M and $35,975.6M for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Product and distribution costs $11,658.2M; store operating expenses $17,058.9M against $15,286.5M and $14,720.3M; other operating expenses $584.6M; depreciation and amortisation $1,684.7M; general and administrative $2,617.2M; restructuring and impairments $892.0M against nil and $21.8M; total operating expenses $34,495.6M; income from equity investees $247.8M against $301.2M and $298.4M; operating income $2,936.6M against $5,408.8M and $5,870.8M; interest income and other net $113.3M; interest expense $542.6M against $562.0M and $550.1M; earnings before income taxes $2,507.3M; income tax expense $650.6M; net earnings attributable to Starbucks $1,856.4M against $3,760.9M and $4,124.5M; diluted EPS $1.63 against $3.31 and $3.58 on 1,139.8 million diluted shares. Balance sheet at 28 September 2025: cash and cash equivalents $3,219.8M, short-term investments $247.2M, accounts receivable $1,277.5M, inventories $2,185.6M, total current assets $7,382.3M, equity investments $466.2M, property plant and equipment net $8,493.5M, operating lease right-of-use asset $9,315.7M, goodwill $3,368.9M, total assets $32,019.7M; accounts payable $1,852.8M, accrued liabilities $2,359.7M, current portion of operating lease liability $1,564.5M, stored value card liability and current portion of deferred revenue $1,840.6M, current portion of long-term debt $1,498.9M, total current liabilities $10,210.4M, long-term debt $14,575.9M, operating lease liability $8,972.2M, deferred revenue $5,772.6M, total liabilities $40,108.9M, retained deficit $(8,272.5)M, total shareholders' deficit $(8,096.6)M, with 1,136.9 million shares issued and outstanding against 1,133.5 million. Cash flows: net earnings including noncontrolling interests $1,856.7M, depreciation and amortisation $1,771.5M, non-cash lease costs $1,513.8M, loss on disposal, impairment and accelerated amortisation of assets $834.7M, stock-based compensation $318.3M; net cash provided by operating activities $4,747.5M against $6,095.6M and $6,008.7M; additions to property, plant and equipment $2,305.5M against $2,777.5M and $2,333.6M. Historic figures from EDGAR XBRL: revenue $19,162.7M (FY2015), $21,315.9M, $22,386.8M, $24,719.5M, $26,508.6M, $23,518.0M (FY2020), $29,060.6M, $32,250.3M, $35,975.6M, $36,176.2M and $37,184.4M (FY2025); net income $2,757.4M, $2,817.7M, $2,884.7M, $4,518.3M, $3,599.2M, $928.3M, $4,199.3M, $3,281.6M, $4,124.5M, $3,760.9M and $1,856.4M; diluted EPS $1.82, $1.90, $1.97, $3.24, $2.92, $0.79, $3.54, $2.83, $3.58, $3.31 and $1.63; operating income $3,601.0M, $4,171.9M, $4,134.7M, $3,883.3M, $4,077.9M, $1,561.7M, $4,872.1M, $4,617.8M, $5,870.8M, $5,408.8M and $2,936.6M. Return on invested capital computed from the same EDGAR filings as NOPAT over average operating invested capital (NOPAT = operating income x (1 - effective tax rate); invested capital = total assets - current liabilities - cash) runs 38.4%, 37.7%, 36.1%, 34.9%, 32.7%, 8.8%, 22.2%, 21.9%, 27.5%, 23.0% and 11.6% for fiscal 2015 through 2025; the step-down after fiscal 2019 reflects the adoption of lease accounting, which added roughly $9 billion of operating lease right-of-use assets to the denominator. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
  3. ReportedLabour hours went back into stores, 627 coffeehouses that could not meet the standard were closed, $892.0 million of restructuring went through the income statement, and the company sold 60% of China rather than keep fighting a losing store war.
    Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 September 2025 (SEC, CIK 829224) — Item 1, Business, and Item 2, Properties. Starbucks describes itself as the premier roaster, marketer and retailer of specialty coffee in the world, operating in 89 markets, formed in 1985 and trading on Nasdaq under SBUX; besides the flagship Starbucks Coffee brand it sells under Teavana, Ethos and Starbucks Reserve. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 it announced its Back to Starbucks strategy, implemented to bring new and existing customers to its stores and return to growth, including supporting green apron partners, enhancing the customer experience, reestablishing itself as the community coffeehouse, and strengthening the brand through product development, marketing, in-store and digital experience. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 it announced a restructuring plan involving the closure of coffeehouses and further transformation of the support organisation, having assessed the store portfolio on whether coffeehouses had a viable path to offering the physical environment consistent with the brand and a clear path to financial performance, and closed those that did not meet these criteria. Retail sales mix by product type for company-operated stores was beverages 73%, food 23% and other 4%. Company-operated store data for fiscal 2025: US 10,158 to 10,047 (509 opened, 620 closed, net -111), Canada 997 to 967, total North America 11,161 to 11,018 (554 opened, 697 closed, net -143); International China 7,594 to 8,009, Japan 1,809 to 1,883, UK 378 to 524, total International 9,857 to 10,496; total company-operated 21,018 to 21,514, including 627 stores closed in the fourth quarter as part of the Back to Starbucks restructuring and 113 licensed stores converted to company-operated following the acquisition of 23.5 Degrees Topco Limited. Licensed store data: total North America 7,263 to 7,293, total International 11,918 to 12,183, total licensed 19,181 to 19,476. Revenues from licensed stores accounted for 12% of total net revenues. Starbucks generally controls substantially all coffee purchasing, roasting and packaging and the global distribution of coffee used in its operations, while Nestlé controls distribution of Starbucks packaged coffee products outside Starbucks stores. Material properties include York, Pennsylvania (1,957,000 sq ft, roasting, warehousing and distribution), Seattle, Washington (1,294,000 sq ft, corporate administrative), Minden, Nevada (1,080,000 sq ft), Auburn, Washington (750,000 sq ft), Lebanon, Tennessee (680,000 sq ft), Kunshan, China (630,000 sq ft), Kent, Washington (510,000 sq ft) and Shanghai, China (221,000 sq ft); Starbucks owns most of its roasting facilities and leases the majority of warehousing and distribution locations, and as of 28 September 2025 had 21,514 company-operated stores, almost all of which are leased. Item 3 reports legal proceedings by reference to the commitments note. The stock performance graph indexes Starbucks at $100.00 on 27 September 2020 and $110.47 on 28 September 2025, against the S&P 500 at $214.30. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
  4. ReportedStarbucks raised the ticket 3.6% in the June quarter while transactions rose 4.2%, which is a customer accepting a higher price and coming more often.
    Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 June 2026 (SEC, CIK 829224). Net revenues for the quarter: company-operated stores $7,506.1M against $7,812.5M, licensed stores $1,200.8M against $1,105.6M, other $615.8M against $537.9M, total $9,322.7M against $9,456.0M; for the three quarters $28,769.3M against $27,615.4M. Restructuring and impairments $302.6M against $20.8M for the quarter and $415.8M against $137.0M for the three quarters. Income from equity investees $78.6M. Operating income $980.4M against $935.6M for the quarter and $2,699.3M against $2,658.4M for the three quarters. Net gain resulting from divestiture of certain operations $536.3M. Net earnings attributable to Starbucks $1,045.3M against $558.3M; diluted EPS $0.91 against $0.49 for the quarter and $1.62 against $1.51 for the three quarters, on 1,143.8 million diluted shares; shares outstanding 1,140.0 million as of 23 July 2026. Starbucks has a presence in 90 markets and, as of 28 June 2026, more than 41,000 company-operated and licensed stores, an increase of 1% from the prior year. Consolidated net revenues decreased 1% to $9.3 billion primarily due to the conversion of Starbucks retail operations in China to the licensed joint venture model, offset by a 7.9% increase in global comparable store sales driven by a 7.9% increase in the US market, where the increase was driven by a 4.2% increase in comparable transactions and a 3.6% increase in average ticket, primarily driven by higher delivery sales and strength in customer food attach and beverage modifications; consolidated operating margin expanded 60 basis points to 10.5%, primarily driven by sales leverage and lower inflation paired with tariff refunds, offset by higher restructuring costs and labour investments largely in support of Back to Starbucks. North America total net revenues for the quarter were $7,395.1M (company-operated $6,754.8M, licensed $639.4M), up 7%, driven by an 8.1% increase in comparable store sales on a 4.5% increase in comparable transactions and a 3.5% increase in average ticket; North America operating income increased 10% to $1,008.9M with the margin expanding 30 basis points to 13.6%, driven by sales leverage (approximately 340 basis points), lapping of the Leadership Experience 2025 (approximately 120) and lower inflation paired with tariff refunds (approximately 110), partially offset by higher restructuring costs (approximately 240), labour investments (approximately 190) and product mix shift (approximately 100); store operating expenses were 56.1% of company-operated store revenue against 56.5%, and 57.3% against 56.4% for the three quarters. For the first three quarters North America revenue rose 5% on a 6.2% increase in comparable store sales, with operating income down 10% to $2.6 billion and the margin contracting 210 basis points to 11.8%, primarily driven by labour investments largely in support of Back to Starbucks (approximately 240 basis points). International quarter revenues were $1,322.6M against $2,010.7M, with company-operated store revenue falling from $1,526.8M to $751.3M and licensed store revenue rising from $465.1M to $561.4M. On 30 March 2026 Starbucks completed the divestiture of its retail operations in China; Boyu Capital acquired a 60% interest based on a cash-free, debt-free mutually agreed total enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, the transaction was partially financed with debt issued by the newly formed joint venture, and Starbucks received total consideration of $3.1 billion inclusive of its share of the debt proceeds, retaining a 40% interest of approximately $1.2 billion accounted for under the equity method. Starbucks derecognised net assets with a carrying value of $3.4 billion and reclassified approximately $282.8 million of cumulative translation adjustment losses and $99.7 million of net investment hedge losses from accumulated other comprehensive income into earnings, recognising a pre-tax gain of $536.3 million; incremental income tax expense associated with the gain is approximately $198.6 million and transaction costs were approximately $44.1 million for the quarter and $73.8 million for the three quarters. Upon completion, 7,991 company-operated stores previously included in the disposal group were converted to licensed stores within the International segment, and Starbucks continues to own and license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the joint venture; for the third quarter, revenues generated from the joint venture were $52.5 million and related product and distribution costs $18.5 million, with the carrying value of the investment $1.2 billion. Starbucks expects the conversion to the licensed joint venture model to continue to drive lower revenues and higher operating margin, used a portion of transaction proceeds for debt reduction, and states a shared long-term aspiration to grow to as many as 20,000 locations in China over time. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 management approved a restructuring plan to relocate certain functions of the support organisation to an additional office in Nashville, Tennessee; in the third quarter it announced an additional fiscal 2026 restructuring plan focused on further transformation of the global support organisation and non-retail facilities and on reducing the future operational complexity of Starbucks Reserve and Roastery locations, resulting in a reassessment and impairment of the associated asset group. — Q3 FY2026 · publ. 2026-07-29 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt has a $5.6 billion prepaid annuity from Nestlé running to 2058.
    Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Note 11, Deferred Revenue, Note 17, Segment Reporting, Note 18, Restructuring, and Note 19, Subsequent Event. During fiscal 2018 Starbucks licensed the rights to sell and market its products in authorized channels through the Global Coffee Alliance and received an up-front prepaid royalty from Nestlé; the up-front payment of approximately $7 billion was recorded as deferred revenue because Starbucks has continuing performance obligations to support the alliance, including providing Nestlé access to certain intellectual properties and products for future resale, and is being recognised as other revenue on a straight-line basis over the estimated economic life of the arrangement of 40 years (a term beginning in fiscal 2018 and therefore running to 2058), a ratable pattern reflecting obligations that are generally constant throughout the term. As of 28 September 2025 the current and long-term deferred revenue related to the Nestlé up-front payment was $177.0 million and $5.6 billion respectively, against $177.0 million and $5.8 billion a year earlier, and Starbucks recognised $176.5 million of prepaid royalty revenue related to Nestlé in each of fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Changes in the deferred revenue balance for stored value cards and the loyalty program: opening balance at 29 September 2024 of $1,718.7 million, revenue deferred from card activations, card reloads and Stars earned of $15,245.8 million, revenue recognised from card and Stars redemptions and breakage of $(15,199.5) million, other $(13.3) million, closing balance at 28 September 2025 of $1,751.7 million; the prior year ran from $1,567.5 million with $15,807.1 million deferred and $(15,665.1) million recognised. For the fiscal years ended 28 September 2025, 29 September 2024 and 1 October 2023, Starbucks recognised breakage revenue of $200.4 million, $187.6 million and $196.1 million in company-operated store revenues, and $22.0 million, $20.0 million and $18.9 million in licensed store revenues. Total breakage recognised in fiscal 2025 across company-operated and licensed store revenues was therefore $222.4 million. Customers who register their stored value card in the US, Canada and certain other countries are automatically enrolled in Starbucks Rewards, primarily a spend-based loyalty program in which members earn Stars; in many company-operated markets including the US the cards do not expire and no service fees decrement balances, and a portion is recognised as breakage over time in proportion to redemptions based on historical redemption rates by market. Segment revenue mix by product type: beverage $22,539.9M (61%), food $7,049.9M (19%), other $7,594.6M (20%) for fiscal 2025. Information by geographic area: net revenues United States $27,124.7M, China $3,160.8M, other countries $6,898.9M; long-lived assets United States $15,952.7M, China $4,276.8M, other countries $4,407.9M; no customer accounts for 10% or more of revenues. Segment financials fiscal 2025: North America $27,373.1M, International $7,819.9M, Channel Development $1,871.7M, Corporate and Other $119.7M; fiscal 2024: $27,009.5M, $7,338.9M, $1,769.8M, $58.0M; fiscal 2023: $26,569.6M, $7,487.6M, $1,893.8M. On 3 November 2025 Starbucks announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks retail in China, under which Boyu will acquire up to a 60% interest based on a cash-free, debt-free mutually agreed total enterprise value of approximately $4 billion, with Starbucks retaining a 40% interest and continuing to own and license the Starbucks brand and intellectual property to the new entity, expected to close by early calendar year 2026. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026