The Year America ShrankNarrow moat
Starbucks (SBUX) — moat facet
For the first time in its modern history Starbucks shrank in America, which breaks the one sentence the investment case rested on for forty years.
For the first time in its modern history, Starbucks shrank in America.
The store data is precise. In the United States, fiscal 2025: 509 opened, 620 closed, a net decline of 111 to 10,047 company-operated stores. Canada: 45 opened, 75 closed, net down 30. Total North America went from 11,161 to 11,018.1 The closures include 584 stores shut in the fourth quarter alone under the Back to Starbucks restructuring.2
For most of forty years the Starbucks investment case was the same sentence: open more stores. Unit growth compounded revenue whatever comparable sales did, and the model was exportable to any city with enough density. A net decline in the home market breaks that habit of mind, and it is why the fiscal 2026 comparable-sales recovery matters so much more than it would at a growing chain — with the store count flat, comps are the only source of growth left in North America.
Starbucks frames it as quality over quantity: a "healthier base of coffeehouses" from which it sees "meaningful opportunity for disciplined growth."3 That is a reasonable description of closing stores that had no path to the brand standard.
It is also a smaller company. Fewer stores means less revenue, and the company said so — it expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by transfer of sales to nearby locations.4
Watch net new US company-operated stores. Returning to positive would say the estate has been cleaned; staying negative would say the American market is full.
509 US openings against 620 closures, a net decline of 111, with Starbucks guiding to a reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenue in fiscal 2026.
509 opened against 620 closed, with Canada down 30 and total North America falling from 11,161 to 11,018. Six hundred and twenty-seven closures came in the fourth quarter alone under the Back to Starbucks restructuring. With the store count flat, North America — 74% of revenue — has exactly one source of growth left, which is comparable sales. Watch this line returning to positive; staying negative makes this a comparable-sales story permanently.
Source: Starbucks Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗- ReportedTotal North America went from 11,161 to 11,018.Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 September 2025 (SEC, CIK 829224) — Item 1, Business, and Item 2, Properties. Starbucks describes itself as the premier roaster, marketer and retailer of specialty coffee in the world, operating in 89 markets, formed in 1985 and trading on Nasdaq under SBUX; besides the flagship Starbucks Coffee brand it sells under Teavana, Ethos and Starbucks Reserve. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 it announced its Back to Starbucks strategy, implemented to bring new and existing customers to its stores and return to growth, including supporting green apron partners, enhancing the customer experience, reestablishing itself as the community coffeehouse, and strengthening the brand through product development, marketing, in-store and digital experience. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 it announced a restructuring plan involving the closure of coffeehouses and further transformation of the support organisation, having assessed the store portfolio on whether coffeehouses had a viable path to offering the physical environment consistent with the brand and a clear path to financial performance, and closed those that did not meet these criteria. Retail sales mix by product type for company-operated stores was beverages 73%, food 23% and other 4%. Company-operated store data for fiscal 2025: US 10,158 to 10,047 (509 opened, 620 closed, net -111), Canada 997 to 967, total North America 11,161 to 11,018 (554 opened, 697 closed, net -143); International China 7,594 to 8,009, Japan 1,809 to 1,883, UK 378 to 524, total International 9,857 to 10,496; total company-operated 21,018 to 21,514, including 627 stores closed in the fourth quarter as part of the Back to Starbucks restructuring and 113 licensed stores converted to company-operated following the acquisition of 23.5 Degrees Topco Limited. Licensed store data: total North America 7,263 to 7,293, total International 11,918 to 12,183, total licensed 19,181 to 19,476. Revenues from licensed stores accounted for 12% of total net revenues. Starbucks generally controls substantially all coffee purchasing, roasting and packaging and the global distribution of coffee used in its operations, while Nestlé controls distribution of Starbucks packaged coffee products outside Starbucks stores. Material properties include York, Pennsylvania (1,957,000 sq ft, roasting, warehousing and distribution), Seattle, Washington (1,294,000 sq ft, corporate administrative), Minden, Nevada (1,080,000 sq ft), Auburn, Washington (750,000 sq ft), Lebanon, Tennessee (680,000 sq ft), Kunshan, China (630,000 sq ft), Kent, Washington (510,000 sq ft) and Shanghai, China (221,000 sq ft); Starbucks owns most of its roasting facilities and leases the majority of warehousing and distribution locations, and as of 28 September 2025 had 21,514 company-operated stores, almost all of which are leased. Item 3 reports legal proceedings by reference to the commitments note. The stock performance graph indexes Starbucks at $100.00 on 27 September 2020 and $110.47 on 28 September 2025, against the S&P 500 at $214.30. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
- ReportedThe closures include 584 stores shut in the fourth quarter alone under the Back to Starbucks restructuring.Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 September 2025 (SEC, CIK 829224) — Item 1, Business, and Item 2, Properties. Starbucks describes itself as the premier roaster, marketer and retailer of specialty coffee in the world, operating in 89 markets, formed in 1985 and trading on Nasdaq under SBUX; besides the flagship Starbucks Coffee brand it sells under Teavana, Ethos and Starbucks Reserve. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 it announced its Back to Starbucks strategy, implemented to bring new and existing customers to its stores and return to growth, including supporting green apron partners, enhancing the customer experience, reestablishing itself as the community coffeehouse, and strengthening the brand through product development, marketing, in-store and digital experience. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 it announced a restructuring plan involving the closure of coffeehouses and further transformation of the support organisation, having assessed the store portfolio on whether coffeehouses had a viable path to offering the physical environment consistent with the brand and a clear path to financial performance, and closed those that did not meet these criteria. Retail sales mix by product type for company-operated stores was beverages 73%, food 23% and other 4%. Company-operated store data for fiscal 2025: US 10,158 to 10,047 (509 opened, 620 closed, net -111), Canada 997 to 967, total North America 11,161 to 11,018 (554 opened, 697 closed, net -143); International China 7,594 to 8,009, Japan 1,809 to 1,883, UK 378 to 524, total International 9,857 to 10,496; total company-operated 21,018 to 21,514, including 627 stores closed in the fourth quarter as part of the Back to Starbucks restructuring and 113 licensed stores converted to company-operated following the acquisition of 23.5 Degrees Topco Limited. Licensed store data: total North America 7,263 to 7,293, total International 11,918 to 12,183, total licensed 19,181 to 19,476. Revenues from licensed stores accounted for 12% of total net revenues. Starbucks generally controls substantially all coffee purchasing, roasting and packaging and the global distribution of coffee used in its operations, while Nestlé controls distribution of Starbucks packaged coffee products outside Starbucks stores. Material properties include York, Pennsylvania (1,957,000 sq ft, roasting, warehousing and distribution), Seattle, Washington (1,294,000 sq ft, corporate administrative), Minden, Nevada (1,080,000 sq ft), Auburn, Washington (750,000 sq ft), Lebanon, Tennessee (680,000 sq ft), Kunshan, China (630,000 sq ft), Kent, Washington (510,000 sq ft) and Shanghai, China (221,000 sq ft); Starbucks owns most of its roasting facilities and leases the majority of warehousing and distribution locations, and as of 28 September 2025 had 21,514 company-operated stores, almost all of which are leased. Item 3 reports legal proceedings by reference to the commitments note. The stock performance graph indexes Starbucks at $100.00 on 27 September 2020 and $110.47 on 28 September 2025, against the S&P 500 at $214.30. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
- ReportedStarbucks frames it as quality over quantity: a "healthier base of coffeehouses" from which it sees "meaningful opportunity for disciplined growth." That is a reasonable description of closing stores that had no path to the brand standard.Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated statements of earnings, balance sheets and cash flows. Net revenues: company-operated stores $30,744.8M, $29,765.9M and $29,462.3M; licensed stores $4,350.4M, $4,505.1M and $4,512.7M; other $2,089.2M, $1,905.2M and $2,000.6M; total $37,184.4M, $36,176.2M and $35,975.6M for fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023. Product and distribution costs $11,658.2M; store operating expenses $17,058.9M against $15,286.5M and $14,720.3M; other operating expenses $584.6M; depreciation and amortisation $1,684.7M; general and administrative $2,617.2M; restructuring and impairments $892.0M against nil and $21.8M; total operating expenses $34,495.6M; income from equity investees $247.8M against $301.2M and $298.4M; operating income $2,936.6M against $5,408.8M and $5,870.8M; interest income and other net $113.3M; interest expense $542.6M against $562.0M and $550.1M; earnings before income taxes $2,507.3M; income tax expense $650.6M; net earnings attributable to Starbucks $1,856.4M against $3,760.9M and $4,124.5M; diluted EPS $1.63 against $3.31 and $3.58 on 1,139.8 million diluted shares. Balance sheet at 28 September 2025: cash and cash equivalents $3,219.8M, short-term investments $247.2M, accounts receivable $1,277.5M, inventories $2,185.6M, total current assets $7,382.3M, equity investments $466.2M, property plant and equipment net $8,493.5M, operating lease right-of-use asset $9,315.7M, goodwill $3,368.9M, total assets $32,019.7M; accounts payable $1,852.8M, accrued liabilities $2,359.7M, current portion of operating lease liability $1,564.5M, stored value card liability and current portion of deferred revenue $1,840.6M, current portion of long-term debt $1,498.9M, total current liabilities $10,210.4M, long-term debt $14,575.9M, operating lease liability $8,972.2M, deferred revenue $5,772.6M, total liabilities $40,108.9M, retained deficit $(8,272.5)M, total shareholders' deficit $(8,096.6)M, with 1,136.9 million shares issued and outstanding against 1,133.5 million. Cash flows: net earnings including noncontrolling interests $1,856.7M, depreciation and amortisation $1,771.5M, non-cash lease costs $1,513.8M, loss on disposal, impairment and accelerated amortisation of assets $834.7M, stock-based compensation $318.3M; net cash provided by operating activities $4,747.5M against $6,095.6M and $6,008.7M; additions to property, plant and equipment $2,305.5M against $2,777.5M and $2,333.6M. Historic figures from EDGAR XBRL: revenue $19,162.7M (FY2015), $21,315.9M, $22,386.8M, $24,719.5M, $26,508.6M, $23,518.0M (FY2020), $29,060.6M, $32,250.3M, $35,975.6M, $36,176.2M and $37,184.4M (FY2025); net income $2,757.4M, $2,817.7M, $2,884.7M, $4,518.3M, $3,599.2M, $928.3M, $4,199.3M, $3,281.6M, $4,124.5M, $3,760.9M and $1,856.4M; diluted EPS $1.82, $1.90, $1.97, $3.24, $2.92, $0.79, $3.54, $2.83, $3.58, $3.31 and $1.63; operating income $3,601.0M, $4,171.9M, $4,134.7M, $3,883.3M, $4,077.9M, $1,561.7M, $4,872.1M, $4,617.8M, $5,870.8M, $5,408.8M and $2,936.6M. Return on invested capital computed from the same EDGAR filings as NOPAT over average operating invested capital (NOPAT = operating income x (1 - effective tax rate); invested capital = total assets - current liabilities - cash) runs 38.4%, 37.7%, 36.1%, 34.9%, 32.7%, 8.8%, 22.2%, 21.9%, 27.5%, 23.0% and 11.6% for fiscal 2015 through 2025; the step-down after fiscal 2019 reflects the adoption of lease accounting, which added roughly $9 billion of operating lease right-of-use assets to the denominator. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗
- ReportedFewer stores means less revenue, and the company said so — it expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by transfer of sales to nearby locations.Starbucks Corporation, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis. Total net revenues increased 3% to $37.2 billion in fiscal 2025 compared to $36.2 billion; consolidated operating income decreased to $2.9 billion from $5.4 billion, with an operating margin of 7.9% against 15.0% — a contraction of 710 basis points primarily due to restructuring costs associated with the closure of coffeehouses and simplification of the support organisation (approximately 240 basis points), deleverage (approximately 210 basis points), investments in support of Back to Starbucks largely in labour hours (approximately 130 basis points) and inflation (approximately 80 basis points). Diluted EPS declined to $1.63 from $3.31. Capital expenditures were $2.3 billion against $2.8 billion, and $2.8 billion was returned to shareholders against $3.8 billion. Consolidated net revenues by type: company-operated stores $30,744.8M (+3.3%), licensed stores $4,350.4M (-3.4%), other $2,089.2M (+9.7%). Company-operated store revenue rose $979 million on net new company-operated store growth of 5%, or 1,010 stores, prior to the 627 restructuring closures late in the fourth quarter, plus $131 million from the conversion of 113 licensed stores following the 23.5 Degrees acquisition, partially offset by a 1% decline in comparable store sales ($408 million) attributable to a 2% decline in comparable transactions partially offset by a 1% increase in average ticket, primarily due to annualization of prior year pricing. By segment: North America total net revenues $27,373.1M (company-operated $24,793.0M at 90.6%, licensed $2,575.6M), operating income $3,156.7M with the margin contracting 830 basis points to 11.5% driven by deleverage (approximately 310 basis points), restructuring (approximately 240) and Back to Starbucks investments largely in labour hours (approximately 180); North America revenue rose 1% on net new company-operated store growth of 4%, or 441 stores, prior to the 584 restructuring closures, offset by a 2% decline in comparable store sales driven by a 4% decline in comparable transactions and a 2% increase in average ticket; store operating expenses were 56.4% of related revenues against 51.4%. International total net revenues $7,819.9M (+7%), operating income $950.0M at a 12.1% margin, contracting 210 basis points. Channel Development net revenues $1,871.7M (+6%), operating income $885.1M at a 47.3% margin, contracting 500 basis points primarily driven by a decline in North American Coffee Partnership joint venture income (approximately 350 basis points) and higher global product costs (approximately 90 basis points), with income from equity investees of $249.6M. Corporate and Other operating loss $(2,055.2)M. Cash and investments were $3.7 billion. Store closures in North America were substantially completed in fiscal 2025 and international closures were expected to complete in the first half of fiscal 2026; Starbucks expects a fiscal 2026 reduction in baseline North America company-operated revenues, partially offset by sales transfer to nearby coffeehouses, and expects the future impact on operating margins to be slightly accretive. The Green Apron Service model went live across the full US company-operated store portfolio in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, and Starbucks expects macroeconomic challenges including new tariffs and dynamic coffee prices to continue. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-14 · source ↗