⚠ MediaTek Does Not Have to Win, Only to Be EnoughHigh threat
Qualcomm (QCOM) — threat to the moat
MediaTek is not trying to beat Snapdragon. It is trying to move where premium starts, and 46% of Qualcomm's revenue is the buyer most willing to let it.
MediaTek does not have to beat Qualcomm. It only has to be good enough at a lower price, and for most of the phones sold on earth it already is.
The mid-range and lower-premium Android market is where handset volume actually lives, and it is the segment where a chipset that is nearly as good for meaningfully less wins on the merits. MediaTek has spent a decade moving up from that base, and every tier it reaches removes volume from Qualcomm's addressable market rather than share from a segment it keeps.
The exposure is concentrated exactly where Qualcomm is most concentrated. China including Hong Kong was 46% of fiscal 2025 revenue by customer headquarters, and the Chinese handset makers are the most price-sensitive large buyers in the industry.1
The defence is that premium Android has stayed loyal — and that when a customer switches chips, QTL still collects the royalty on the handset.2 Losing a socket to MediaTek costs Qualcomm the chip margin and none of the licence.
That is a real cushion and a diminishing one, because the chip business is roughly three-quarters of profit.
The number is Snapdragon's share of premium Android, not of Android.
- ReportedChina including Hong Kong was 46% of fiscal 2025 revenue by customer headquarters, and the Chinese handset makers are the most price-sensitive large buyers in the industry.Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 28 September 2025 (SEC, CIK 804328) — Item 1, Business, and the revenue-concentration and geographic disclosures. Qualcomm operates through QCT (semiconductors) and QTL (licensing), with QSI making strategic investments. QTL grants licences to portions of a patent portfolio including rights essential to and/or useful in the manufacture and sale of certain wireless products. In fiscal 2025 revenues from Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi each comprised 10% or more of consolidated revenues. Revenues by country, reported by customer or licensee headquarters: China including Hong Kong $20,340M (46%), United States $10,515M (24%), South Korea $9,542M (21%), other foreign $3,887M (9%), total $44,284M; the equivalent 2023 figures were $13,386M (37%), $10,503M (29%), $8,075M (23%) and $3,856M (11%). Approximately 52,000 full-time, part-time and temporary workers at 28 September 2025, in over 200 locations in 38 countries, with a voluntary turnover rate around 6%. Named registry and semiconductor competitors and the risk factors relating to customer vertical integration are set out in the same Item. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗
- ReportedThe defence is that premium Android has stayed loyal — and that when a customer switches chips, QTL still collects the royalty on the handset.Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis, and the reportable-segment note. QCT revenues $38,367M (2024 $33,196M, 2023 $30,382M) with EBT of $11,670M ($9,527M, $7,924M) at 30% of revenues (29%, 26%); QCT revenue streams handsets $27,793M ($24,863M, $22,570M), automotive $3,957M ($2,910M, $1,872M) and IoT $6,617M ($5,423M, $5,940M). QTL revenues $5,582M ($5,572M, $5,306M) against total costs and expenses of $1,539M ($1,545M, $1,678M), for EBT of $4,043M ($4,027M, $3,628M) — 72% of revenues in each of the three years. Reportable-segment revenues $43,949M, $38,786M and $35,716M against consolidated revenues of $44,284M, $38,962M and $35,820M. During the second quarter of fiscal 2025 Qualcomm executed final agreements for new long-term licensing arrangements. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗