⚠ Which Means Today's Revenue Is Evidence About 2024Moderate threat
Qualcomm (QCOM) — threat to the moat
In this business the reported number describes decisions taken two years ago and the guidance contains all the new information.
The design cycle hides bad news for two years, and Qualcomm has just finished proving how much can accumulate in the dark.
Apple's decision to build its own modem was made no later than 2019.1 Qualcomm's handset revenue rose in each of fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, reaching a record $27,793 million.2 Then it fell 20% year over year in a single quarter, with Apple-related revenue guided down roughly 50% between the September and December quarters.3
Seven years of visible warning produced a step change rather than a slope, because product generations end all at once.
The same mechanism means today's revenue is not evidence about today's competitiveness. It is evidence about decisions taken two years ago, in a market where the decisions taken this year are the ones that matter.
It cuts favourably in automotive, where wins already booked will produce revenue through 2029 whatever happens next.
Read guidance rather than results. In this business the forward number contains the new information and the reported one does not.
- ReportedApple's decision to build its own modem was made no later than 2019.Public record of Apple's modem programme, referenced in coverage of Qualcomm's third-quarter fiscal 2026 results. Apple acquired Intel's smartphone modem business in 2019 and shipped its own modem in 2025, since widening its use; Qualcomm's QCT handset revenue fell 20% year over year in the quarter ended 28 June 2026 and management guided Apple-related revenue to fall by approximately 50% between the September and December quarters. — 2019-2026 · publ. 2026-07-30 · source ↗
- ReportedApple's decision to build its own modem was made no later than 2019. Qualcomm's handset revenue rose in each of fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, reaching a record $27,793 million.Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis, and the reportable-segment note. QCT revenues $38,367M (2024 $33,196M, 2023 $30,382M) with EBT of $11,670M ($9,527M, $7,924M) at 30% of revenues (29%, 26%); QCT revenue streams handsets $27,793M ($24,863M, $22,570M), automotive $3,957M ($2,910M, $1,872M) and IoT $6,617M ($5,423M, $5,940M). QTL revenues $5,582M ($5,572M, $5,306M) against total costs and expenses of $1,539M ($1,545M, $1,678M), for EBT of $4,043M ($4,027M, $3,628M) — 72% of revenues in each of the three years. Reportable-segment revenues $43,949M, $38,786M and $35,716M against consolidated revenues of $44,284M, $38,962M and $35,820M. During the second quarter of fiscal 2025 Qualcomm executed final agreements for new long-term licensing arrangements. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗
- ReportedApple's decision to build its own modem was made no later than 2019. Qualcomm's handset revenue rose in each of fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025, reaching a record $27,793 million. Then it fell 20% year over year in a single quarter, with Apple-related revenue guided down roughly 50% between the September and December quarters.Qualcomm Incorporated, Form 10-K FY2025 — Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis, and the reportable-segment note. QCT revenues $38,367M (2024 $33,196M, 2023 $30,382M) with EBT of $11,670M ($9,527M, $7,924M) at 30% of revenues (29%, 26%); QCT revenue streams handsets $27,793M ($24,863M, $22,570M), automotive $3,957M ($2,910M, $1,872M) and IoT $6,617M ($5,423M, $5,940M). QTL revenues $5,582M ($5,572M, $5,306M) against total costs and expenses of $1,539M ($1,545M, $1,678M), for EBT of $4,043M ($4,027M, $3,628M) — 72% of revenues in each of the three years. Reportable-segment revenues $43,949M, $38,786M and $35,716M against consolidated revenues of $44,284M, $38,962M and $35,820M. During the second quarter of fiscal 2025 Qualcomm executed final agreements for new long-term licensing arrangements. — FY2025 · publ. 2025-11-05 · source ↗