✦ What Sixty Billion of Surplus Capital Is ForWide moat

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — the future bets

How close to twelve percent management is willing to run the capital ratio is the clearest statement it can make about what it thinks the next rule will say.

The largest open question about this company is not what it earns but what it does with what it has already earned.

Capital being converted into returns$4.10Dividend/share 2023$5.80Dividend/share 202582%Net payout to Dec 202573%Net payout to Jun 2026CET1 fell 14.6% to 14.1% over the same period - capital returned rather than lost.
How close to 12% management will run it is a forecast of the next rule.

JPMorgan ended 2025 with a 14.6% Standardized CET1 ratio against an 11.5% requirement including all buffers1, on $288 billion of capital. By June 2026 the ratio was 14.1% on $303 billion2 — capital being deployed rather than lost. Net payout was 82% over the twelve months to December 2025 and 73% to June 20263, and the dividend rose from $4.10 a share in 2023 to $5.80 in 20254.

Three points on roughly $2 trillion of risk-weighted assets is around $60 billion of equity. The uses are not equivalent. Returned through buybacks at 2.7 times book, it retires shares at a premium to the capital being distributed. Held, it makes the firm the only credible buyer the next time a bank fails on a Friday. Deployed into loans, it earns the spread — but only if there are loans worth making.

The bet management appears to be making is that the regulatory requirement is more likely to fall than rise, which the eSLR revision and the signalled replacement for the Basel endgame proposal both support5.

The number to watch is the CET1 ratio's trajectory. It has fallen half a point in six months, and how close to 12% management is willing to run it is the clearest statement it can make about the next rule.

Moat trajectory: Widening

The CET1 ratio fell from 14.6% to 14.1% in six months as capital was returned, and the dividend rose from $4.10 a share in 2023 to $5.80 in 2025. The surplus is being converted into shareholder returns rather than sitting.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Dividend declared per share
$5.80 in 2025, from $4.10 in 2023

Alongside a net payout of 82% over the twelve months to December 2025 and a CET1 ratio falling from 14.6% to 14.1%. Returned through buybacks at 2.7 times book, surplus capital retires shares at a premium to the equity distributed; held, it makes the firm the only credible buyer in the next crisis.

Source: JPMorgan Chase Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedBasel III CET1 capital of $288bn, a Standardized ratio of 14.6%, against a requirement including all regulatory buffers of 11.5%.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K FY2025 — capital risk management (SEC, CIK 19617). Basel III common equity Tier 1 capital of $288 billion and a Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.6%; the Standardized CET1 requirement including all regulatory buffers was 11.5%. The stress capital buffer requirement is 2.5% and remains in effect through 30 September 2027, based on the severely adverse scenario of the Federal Reserve's supervisory stress test; the annual CCAR submission was due 6 April 2026. Capital is allocated to the lines of business using standardized risk-weighted assets and the GSIB surcharge under rules currently in effect, reassessed at least annually. The enhanced supplementary leverage ratio rules revise the static leverage buffers to 50% of the bank holding company's US Method 1 GSIB surcharge, capped at 1% for insured depository institution subsidiaries. The July 2023 proposal to amend the US risk-based capital framework (the Basel III endgame) was never finalised; in September 2025 the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision indicated regulators may issue an updated proposal in early 2026 replacing it, the timing and content of which remain uncertain. The Apple Card transaction reduced the Standardized CET1 ratio by approximately 25 basis points. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
  2. ReportedThe Standardized CET1 ratio was 14.1% on $303bn of capital in the June 2026 quarter.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1) — net income $21.2bn ($7.70 per share), or $16.9bn ($6.14) excluding significant items; ROE 24%, ROTCE 29% and ROTCE excluding significant items 23%. Reported revenue $57.3bn and managed revenue $58.0bn; expense $27.3bn with a reported overhead ratio of 48%; credit costs $2.5bn with $2.4bn of net charge-offs and a $149M net reserve build. Average loans up 10% year on year and average deposits up 7%. CET1 Standardized 14.1% and Advanced 14.2%, total loss-absorbing capacity $590bn, Standardized RWA $2.1tn, cash and marketable securities $1.5tn; book value per share $133.01 up 9% and tangible book value per share $113.35 up 10%; Basel III CET1 capital $303bn; supplementary leverage ratio 5.5%; net payout over the last twelve months 73%. Segment returns: CCB ROE 34% with client investment assets up 21%, a Card Services net charge-off rate of 3.34%, card sales volume up 10% and active mobile customers up 6%; CIB ROE 22% with investment banking fees up 30% year on year, a #1 ranking for global investment banking fees at 9.3% wallet share year to date, markets revenue up 35% with fixed income up 6% and equity markets up 86%, and average client deposits up 11%; AWM ROE 48% with AUM of $5.1tn, up 18%. Significant items were a $4.6bn net gain related to Visa shares ($1.27 of EPS) and $1.0bn of gains on certain equity investments ($0.29). Jamie Dimon: 'These results were the product of a particularly favorable environment with an elevated level of market activity, as well as rigorous execution, years of consistent investment and thoughtful capital deployment.' — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-14 · source ↗
  3. ReportedNet payout over the twelve months to June 2026 was 73%.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1) — net income $21.2bn ($7.70 per share), or $16.9bn ($6.14) excluding significant items; ROE 24%, ROTCE 29% and ROTCE excluding significant items 23%. Reported revenue $57.3bn and managed revenue $58.0bn; expense $27.3bn with a reported overhead ratio of 48%; credit costs $2.5bn with $2.4bn of net charge-offs and a $149M net reserve build. Average loans up 10% year on year and average deposits up 7%. CET1 Standardized 14.1% and Advanced 14.2%, total loss-absorbing capacity $590bn, Standardized RWA $2.1tn, cash and marketable securities $1.5tn; book value per share $133.01 up 9% and tangible book value per share $113.35 up 10%; Basel III CET1 capital $303bn; supplementary leverage ratio 5.5%; net payout over the last twelve months 73%. Segment returns: CCB ROE 34% with client investment assets up 21%, a Card Services net charge-off rate of 3.34%, card sales volume up 10% and active mobile customers up 6%; CIB ROE 22% with investment banking fees up 30% year on year, a #1 ranking for global investment banking fees at 9.3% wallet share year to date, markets revenue up 35% with fixed income up 6% and equity markets up 86%, and average client deposits up 11%; AWM ROE 48% with AUM of $5.1tn, up 18%. Significant items were a $4.6bn net gain related to Visa shares ($1.27 of EPS) and $1.0bn of gains on certain equity investments ($0.29). Jamie Dimon: 'These results were the product of a particularly favorable environment with an elevated level of market activity, as well as rigorous execution, years of consistent investment and thoughtful capital deployment.' — Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-07-14 · source ↗
  4. ReportedDividends declared per share were $5.80 in 2025, $4.80 in 2024 and $4.10 in 2023.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated financial statements and management's discussion (SEC, CIK 19617). Total net revenue $182,447M (2024 $177,556M, 2023 $158,104M); total noninterest expense $95,640M (2023 $87,172M); pre-provision profit $86,807M; provision for credit losses $14,212M; net income $57,048M; diluted EPS $20.02; ROE 17%, ROTCE 20% (2024 22%, 2023 21%); overhead ratio 52% (2024 52%, 2023 55%); loans-to-deposits 58% (56%, 55%); deposits 63% of total liabilities. Total assets $4,424,900M, loans $1,493,429M, deposits $2,559,320M, tangible common equity $290,018M, book value per share $126.99, tangible book value per share $107.56, dividends declared per share $5.80 (2024 $4.80, 2023 $4.10). Segment total net revenue: CCB $76,029M / $71,507M / $70,148M; CIB $78,454M / $70,114M / $64,353M; AWM $24,073M / $21,578M / $19,827M. Banking & Payments by client coverage: Global Corporate Banking and Global Investment Banking $25,285M, Commercial Banking $11,851M. Deposit average balances and rates: US non-interest-bearing $572,014M (2024 $611,734M, 2023 $635,791M); US interest-bearing demand $321,145M at 3.26%; US savings $875,519M at 1.41%; total deposits 1.80% (2024 2.08%, 2023 1.70%). An estimated bargain purchase gain of $2.8bn was recorded for the year ended 31 December 2023 on the First Republic acquisition, with a further $588M First Republic-related gain in the first quarter of 2025; 2024 revenue included a $7.9bn net gain on Visa shares. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe July 2023 Basel III endgame proposal was never finalised; in September 2025 the Federal Reserve signalled an updated proposal for early 2026, the timing and content of which remain uncertain.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K FY2025 — capital risk management (SEC, CIK 19617). Basel III common equity Tier 1 capital of $288 billion and a Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.6%; the Standardized CET1 requirement including all regulatory buffers was 11.5%. The stress capital buffer requirement is 2.5% and remains in effect through 30 September 2027, based on the severely adverse scenario of the Federal Reserve's supervisory stress test; the annual CCAR submission was due 6 April 2026. Capital is allocated to the lines of business using standardized risk-weighted assets and the GSIB surcharge under rules currently in effect, reassessed at least annually. The enhanced supplementary leverage ratio rules revise the static leverage buffers to 50% of the bank holding company's US Method 1 GSIB surcharge, capped at 1% for insured depository institution subsidiaries. The July 2023 proposal to amend the US risk-based capital framework (the Basel III endgame) was never finalised; in September 2025 the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision indicated regulators may issue an updated proposal in early 2026 replacing it, the timing and content of which remain uncertain. The Apple Card transaction reduced the Standardized CET1 ratio by approximately 25 basis points. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026