Eighty Million Relationships, and Not One That MattersWide moat

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — moat facet

Granularity is diversification of name, not of exposure -- tens of millions of households stop paying their cards in the same quarter.

The most valuable thing about JPMorgan's consumer base is that no page of its filings needs to describe it.

Concentration, comparednone >10%JPMorgan largest customer22%Nvidia largest20.4%Kioxia largest67%CoreWeave largest$2.56tn of deposits held across tens of millions of accounts, none of them material.
Granularity is diversification of name, not of exposure.

There is no customer at 10% of revenue, no top-ten table, no unnamed Customer A. The deposits are $2.56 trillion held across tens of millions of accounts1, and the largest of them is a rounding error. Compare that to almost anything else in this collection — a chipmaker at 22% from one buyer, a memory maker at 20%, a cloud company at 67% — and the structural difference is obvious.

What it buys is not just safety. It is pricing power of an unusual kind: a bank negotiating with an individual depositor is not negotiating at all. The rate is posted, and 1.41% on $875 billion of savings balances2 is what happens when no counterparty is large enough to argue.

The catch is that granularity is diversification of name, not of exposure. Tens of millions of American households lose their jobs in the same recession, stop paying their cards in the same quarter and draw down their savings at the same time. The 2025 provision for credit losses was $14.2 billion3 in a good year.

The number to watch is the Card Services net charge-off rate, guided near 3.4% for 20264. It is the aggregate behaviour of a customer base with no concentration and complete correlation.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

No customer reaches 10% of revenue and none ever has. The structure is the same as it was a decade ago and will be a decade from now.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Card Services net charge-off rate
~3.4% guided for 2026

Against 3.14% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 3.34% in the June 2026 quarter. It is the aggregate behaviour of a customer base with no concentration and complete correlation, and the single most sensitive number in the firm to unemployment. Watch it against the unemployment rate; the gap is the underwriting.

Source: JPMorgan Chase Form 10-K, FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedTotal assets $4,424,900M, deposits $2,559,320M, loans $1,493,429M and 318,512 employees at 31 December 2025.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated financial statements and management's discussion (SEC, CIK 19617). Total net revenue $182,447M (2024 $177,556M, 2023 $158,104M); total noninterest expense $95,640M (2023 $87,172M); pre-provision profit $86,807M; provision for credit losses $14,212M; net income $57,048M; diluted EPS $20.02; ROE 17%, ROTCE 20% (2024 22%, 2023 21%); overhead ratio 52% (2024 52%, 2023 55%); loans-to-deposits 58% (56%, 55%); deposits 63% of total liabilities. Total assets $4,424,900M, loans $1,493,429M, deposits $2,559,320M, tangible common equity $290,018M, book value per share $126.99, tangible book value per share $107.56, dividends declared per share $5.80 (2024 $4.80, 2023 $4.10). Segment total net revenue: CCB $76,029M / $71,507M / $70,148M; CIB $78,454M / $70,114M / $64,353M; AWM $24,073M / $21,578M / $19,827M. Banking & Payments by client coverage: Global Corporate Banking and Global Investment Banking $25,285M, Commercial Banking $11,851M. Deposit average balances and rates: US non-interest-bearing $572,014M (2024 $611,734M, 2023 $635,791M); US interest-bearing demand $321,145M at 3.26%; US savings $875,519M at 1.41%; total deposits 1.80% (2024 2.08%, 2023 1.70%). An estimated bargain purchase gain of $2.8bn was recorded for the year ended 31 December 2023 on the First Republic acquisition, with a further $588M First Republic-related gain in the first quarter of 2025; 2024 revenue included a $7.9bn net gain on Visa shares. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
  2. ReportedUS savings average balances of $875,519M paid 1.41% and interest-bearing demand balances of $321,145M paid 3.26%.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated financial statements and management's discussion (SEC, CIK 19617). Total net revenue $182,447M (2024 $177,556M, 2023 $158,104M); total noninterest expense $95,640M (2023 $87,172M); pre-provision profit $86,807M; provision for credit losses $14,212M; net income $57,048M; diluted EPS $20.02; ROE 17%, ROTCE 20% (2024 22%, 2023 21%); overhead ratio 52% (2024 52%, 2023 55%); loans-to-deposits 58% (56%, 55%); deposits 63% of total liabilities. Total assets $4,424,900M, loans $1,493,429M, deposits $2,559,320M, tangible common equity $290,018M, book value per share $126.99, tangible book value per share $107.56, dividends declared per share $5.80 (2024 $4.80, 2023 $4.10). Segment total net revenue: CCB $76,029M / $71,507M / $70,148M; CIB $78,454M / $70,114M / $64,353M; AWM $24,073M / $21,578M / $19,827M. Banking & Payments by client coverage: Global Corporate Banking and Global Investment Banking $25,285M, Commercial Banking $11,851M. Deposit average balances and rates: US non-interest-bearing $572,014M (2024 $611,734M, 2023 $635,791M); US interest-bearing demand $321,145M at 3.26%; US savings $875,519M at 1.41%; total deposits 1.80% (2024 2.08%, 2023 1.70%). An estimated bargain purchase gain of $2.8bn was recorded for the year ended 31 December 2023 on the First Republic acquisition, with a further $588M First Republic-related gain in the first quarter of 2025; 2024 revenue included a $7.9bn net gain on Visa shares. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe 2025 provision for credit losses was $14,212M.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K FY2025 — consolidated financial statements and management's discussion (SEC, CIK 19617). Total net revenue $182,447M (2024 $177,556M, 2023 $158,104M); total noninterest expense $95,640M (2023 $87,172M); pre-provision profit $86,807M; provision for credit losses $14,212M; net income $57,048M; diluted EPS $20.02; ROE 17%, ROTCE 20% (2024 22%, 2023 21%); overhead ratio 52% (2024 52%, 2023 55%); loans-to-deposits 58% (56%, 55%); deposits 63% of total liabilities. Total assets $4,424,900M, loans $1,493,429M, deposits $2,559,320M, tangible common equity $290,018M, book value per share $126.99, tangible book value per share $107.56, dividends declared per share $5.80 (2024 $4.80, 2023 $4.10). Segment total net revenue: CCB $76,029M / $71,507M / $70,148M; CIB $78,454M / $70,114M / $64,353M; AWM $24,073M / $21,578M / $19,827M. Banking & Payments by client coverage: Global Corporate Banking and Global Investment Banking $25,285M, Commercial Banking $11,851M. Deposit average balances and rates: US non-interest-bearing $572,014M (2024 $611,734M, 2023 $635,791M); US interest-bearing demand $321,145M at 3.26%; US savings $875,519M at 1.41%; total deposits 1.80% (2024 2.08%, 2023 1.70%). An estimated bargain purchase gain of $2.8bn was recorded for the year ended 31 December 2023 on the First Republic acquisition, with a further $588M First Republic-related gain in the first quarter of 2025; 2024 revenue included a $7.9bn net gain on Visa shares. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
  4. ReportedManagement expects the Card Services net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4% in 2026.
    JPMorgan Chase & Co., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2025 (SEC, CIK 19617) — total net revenue $182,447M against $177,556M in 2024 and $158,104M in 2023; total noninterest expense $95,640M; pre-provision profit $86,807M; provision for credit losses $14,212M; net income $57,048M and diluted EPS $20.02; return on equity 17%, return on tangible common equity 20% (22% in 2024, 21% in 2023), return on assets 1.29%, overhead ratio 52% (52% in 2024, 55% in 2023), loans-to-deposits ratio 58% (56%, 55%), liquidity coverage ratio 111%. Total assets $4,424,900M, loans $1,493,429M, deposits $2,559,320M (63% of total liabilities), long-term debt $435,206M, common stockholders' equity $342,393M, tangible common equity $290,018M, book value per share $126.99 and tangible book value per share $107.56; dividends declared per share $5.80 (2024 $4.80, 2023 $4.10). Segment total net revenue: Consumer & Community Banking $76,029M, $71,507M and $70,148M; Commercial & Investment Bank $78,454M, $70,114M and $64,353M; Asset & Wealth Management $24,073M, $21,578M and $19,827M across 2025, 2024 and 2023. Banking & Payments revenue by client coverage: Global Corporate Banking and Global Investment Banking $25,285M and Commercial Banking $11,851M in 2025. Deposit average balances and rates: US non-interest-bearing $572,014M (2024 $611,734M, 2023 $635,791M), US interest-bearing demand $321,145M at 3.26%, US savings $875,519M at 1.41%; total deposits average rate 1.80% (2024 2.08%, 2023 1.70%). Firmwide estimated uninsured deposits $1,558.6bn at 31 December 2025 and $1,414.0bn a year earlier, 'primarily reflecting wholesale operating deposits'. Basel III common equity Tier 1 capital $288bn, Standardized ratio 14.6%; the Standardized CET1 requirement including regulatory buffers was 11.5%, with a stress capital buffer of 2.5% effective through 30 September 2027 and the annual capital plan due 6 April 2026. Capital is allocated to the lines of business using standardized risk-weighted assets and the GSIB surcharge, reassessed at least annually; the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio rules were revised to set the buffer at 50% of the firm's US Method 1 GSIB surcharge. The July 2023 Basel III endgame proposal was never finalised, and in September 2025 the Federal Reserve's Vice Chair for Supervision indicated regulators may issue an updated proposal in early 2026, the timing and content of which remain uncertain. 2025 included a $588M First Republic-related gain and an estimated bargain purchase gain of $2.8bn was recorded for the year ended 31 December 2023; 2024 revenue included a $7.9bn net gain on Visa shares. Apple Card transaction: on 7 January 2026 the firm announced Chase will become the new issuer of Apple Card, having entered a forward purchase commitment on 30 December 2025, with expected closing in approximately 24 months; the 2025 provision includes $2.2bn for lending-related commitments and the Standardized CET1 ratio decreased approximately 25 basis points. 2026 outlook: net interest income excluding Markets of approximately $95bn and adjusted expense of approximately $105bn, with a Card Services net charge-off rate of approximately 3.4%. Global workforce of 318,512 employees; JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. operates US branches in 48 states and Washington, D.C. Competition: 'Competitors include other banks, brokerage firms, investment banking companies, merchant banks, hedge funds, commodity trading companies, private equity firms, insurance companies, mutual fund companies, investment managers, credit card companies, mortgage banking companies, trust companies, securities processing companies, automobile financing companies, leasing companies, e-commerce and other internet-based companies, digital asset and other financial technology companies'; 'New competitors in the financial services industry continue to emerge, including firms that offer products and services solely through the internet and non-financial companies that offer products and services that disintermediate traditional banking products and services'. Risk factors warn that advocacy by non-banking competitors for exemptions from regulatory requirements could significantly disadvantage traditional financial institutions; that failing to keep pace with rapidly changing technological advances including generative AI risks losing clients and market share, with competition intensifying as new technologies become more capable and scalable; that adverse conditions could prompt outflows or cause clients to invest in products that generate lower revenue; and that the interconnectivity across credit markets increases the risk that the significant expansion of private credit could worsen losses among non-bank lenders and their borrowers, particularly if stress or defaults spread to broader funding and credit markets. — FY2025 · publ. 2026-02-13 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026