TexasThin moat

Vistra (VST) — moat facet

The original business earns its year in a few hot or cold weeks, under a market that caps prices when they matter most.

Texas is Vistra's original business and its most weather-dependent. The segment had operating revenues of $5,353 million in 2025, from $5,394 million in 2024 and $3,979 million in 2023 1, of which only $934 million came from outside customers 2. Its Adjusted EBITDA was $1,834 million, from $2,032 million 3.

Texas production by fuel, 2025 (GWh)Natural gas47,755Lignite and coal22,673Nuclear (Comanche Peak)20,059Solar799Vistra 10-K FY2025, Texas segment results; nuclear capacity factor 95.4%
Gas and lignite still make most of Texas's power; the nuclear share is what Amazon has contracted.

It sells into ERCOT, which pays for energy but not for capacity. It produced 47,755 GWh from gas, 22,673 GWh from lignite and coal, 20,059 GWh from Comanche Peak's two reactors and 799 GWh from solar in 2025; the reactors ran at a 95.4% capacity factor 4.

2025 was a year of incidents. The 10-K attributes the fall in net income, from $2,133 million to $1,604 million, to $311 million less in unrealised hedge gains, lost energy revenue from the Martin Lake incident, a $68 million impairment and $60 million less nuclear production tax credit revenue, partly offset by higher realised prices and $120 million of insurance gains 5.

The latest quarter recovered sharply. Texas Adjusted EBITDA was $311 million in the June 2026 quarter against $142 million, and $897 million for the half 6. Comanche Peak's 1,200 MW contract with Amazon begins delivering in the fourth quarter of 2027, which will move part of this segment from merchant to contracted pricing.

Texas earns its year in a few hot or cold weeks, under a market that caps prices when they rise too long. The number to watch is its Adjusted EBITDA across a full year, $1,834 million in 2025 7; a second decline in 2026 despite the strong second quarter would mean the incidents were not the whole explanation.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Adjusted EBITDA fell in 2025 on incidents and lower tax credits, then more than doubled in the June 2026 quarter; Comanche Peak's Amazon contract starts in late 2027.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Texas Adjusted EBITDA, first half
$897M in H1 2026 ($1,834M in 2025, from $2,032M)

A second annual decline despite the strong second quarter would mean the 2025 incidents were not the whole explanation.

Source: Vistra 10-Q Q2 2026 and 10-K FY2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedThe segment had operating revenues of $5,353 million in 2025, from $5,394 million in 2024 and $3,979 million in 2023 , of which only $934 million came from outside customers .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcThe segment had operating revenues of $5,353 million in 2025, from $5,394 million in 2024 and $3,979 million in 2023 , of which only $934 million came from outside customers .
    Moat Explorer calculation from Vistra's Form 10-K FY2025 and Q2 2026 10-Q: external revenue by segment (segment revenue less intersegment sales), shares of revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, volume changes — FY2023 to H1 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIts Adjusted EBITDA was $1,834 million, from $2,032 million .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt produced 47,755 GWh from gas, 22,673 GWh from lignite and coal, 20,059 GWh from Comanche Peak's two reactors and 799 GWh from solar in 2025; the reactors ran at a 95.4% capacity factor .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe 10-K attributes the fall in net income, from $2,133 million to $1,604 million, to $311 million less in unrealised hedge gains, lost energy revenue from the Martin Lake incident, a $68 million impairment and $60 million less nuclear production tax credit revenue, partly offset by higher realised prices and $120 million of insurance gains .
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedTexas Adjusted EBITDA was $311 million in the June 2026 quarter against $142 million, and $897 million for the half .
    Vistra Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 - segment Adjusted EBITDA and net income for the quarter and half, retail sales volumes, Meta PPA delivery schedule — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe number to watch is its Adjusted EBITDA across a full year, $1,834 million in 2025 ; a second decline in 2026 despite the strong second quarter would mean the incidents were not the whole explanation.
    Vistra Form 10-K FY2025 - segment information (operating revenues, intersegment sales, Adjusted EBITDA for 2025, 2024 and 2023) and results by segment (net income, production volumes, capacity factors, retail volumes) — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026