◆ Inside the Latest Quarter (Q2 2026)

Vistra (VST) — the variant view

Adjusted EBITDA up more than 30%, revenue down 5.5% and missing consensus by a third, and both numbers are correct.

📈 VST valuation, revenue & earnings — P/E, P/S, revenue, EPS →

Vistra reported second-quarter 2026 results on 7 August 2026, and the two headline numbers moved in opposite directions.

Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA by segment ($m)$773m vs $756mRetail$642m vs $418mEast$311m vs $142mTexas$68m vs $49mWestOngoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA $1,767m, up over 30%, on revenue down 5.5%
The generation segments roughly doubled while the revenue line fell and missed consensus by a third. Both are correct.

Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $1,767 million against $1,349 million a year earlier1 — an increase of more than 30%. Operating revenues were $4,017 million against $4,250 million2, a decline of about 5.5%, which missed the consensus estimate by roughly a third3.

Both are correct and the gap is the same accounting fact that dominates the whole company. The revenue line includes mark-to-market movements on unsettled hedges; the EBITDA measure excludes them. Analysts model a revenue number that is not a measure of sales.

Underneath, the segment results were strong. Retail contributed $773 million of Adjusted EBITDA against $756 million, East $642 million against $418 million, Texas $311 million against $142 million, and West $68 million against $49 million4. The generation segments roughly doubled.

Reported earnings were $305 million of net income and $0.76 of diluted earnings per share against $0.815 — and the six-month figures show the volatility more clearly: $3.64 per diluted share for the first half of 2026 against a loss of $0.11 for the first half of 20256.

Guidance was reaffirmed rather than raised: 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion7. For 2027 the midpoint opportunity range is $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta agreement, with the company noting it is trending toward the lower end and that the two excluded items could add roughly $700 million8.

Capital returns continue: approximately $1.2 billion of repurchase authorisation remained, to be completed no later than year-end 2027, alongside a target of at least $1 billion of annual buybacks and roughly $300 million of common dividends9.

The shares finished the quarter about 38% below the high they set in September 202510. The business is doing better and the stock is doing worse, which is what a de-rating looks like.

References
  1. ReportedOngoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA was $1,767 million against $1,349 million a year earlier — an increase of more than 30%
    Vistra Corp. second quarter 2026 results, 7 August 2026 — Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,767 million against $1,349 million in Q2 2025 and $1,412 million in Q2 2024, an increase of more than 30%, on revenue of $4.02 billion that missed consensus by roughly a third; 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion; 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA, trending toward the lower end, with those two items potentially adding roughly $700 million; approximately 171 million shares retired at an average cost of approximately $38 per share since November 2021 and more than $6.5 billion returned to shareholders through 3 August 2026; approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchase authorisation remaining, expected to be completed no later than year-end 2027, with a target of at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases and approximately $300 million of common dividends annually; a $1 billion commitment to the Helix data centre platform — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcOperating revenues were $4,017 million against $4,250 million, a decline of about 5.5%, which missed the consensus estimate by roughly a third
    Vistra Corp. second quarter 2026 results, 7 August 2026 — Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,767 million against $1,349 million in Q2 2025 and $1,412 million in Q2 2024, an increase of more than 30%, on revenue of $4.02 billion that missed consensus by roughly a third; 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion; 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA, trending toward the lower end, with those two items potentially adding roughly $700 million; approximately 171 million shares retired at an average cost of approximately $38 per share since November 2021 and more than $6.5 billion returned to shareholders through 3 August 2026; approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchase authorisation remaining, expected to be completed no later than year-end 2027, with a target of at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases and approximately $300 million of common dividends annually; a $1 billion commitment to the Helix data centre platform — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcOperating revenues were $4,017 million against $4,250 million, a decline of about 5.5%, which missed the consensus estimate by roughly a third
    Vistra Corp. second quarter 2026 results, 7 August 2026 — Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,767 million against $1,349 million in Q2 2025 and $1,412 million in Q2 2024, an increase of more than 30%, on revenue of $4.02 billion that missed consensus by roughly a third; 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion; 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA, trending toward the lower end, with those two items potentially adding roughly $700 million; approximately 171 million shares retired at an average cost of approximately $38 per share since November 2021 and more than $6.5 billion returned to shareholders through 3 August 2026; approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchase authorisation remaining, expected to be completed no later than year-end 2027, with a target of at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases and approximately $300 million of common dividends annually; a $1 billion commitment to the Helix data centre platform — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedRetail contributed $773 million of Adjusted EBITDA against $756 million, East $642 million against $418 million, Texas $311 million against $142 million, and West $68 million against $49 million
    Vistra Corp. Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 — operating revenues $4,017M for the quarter against $4,250M a year earlier and $9,657M for the six months against $8,183M; operating income $553M and $2,052M; net income attributable to Vistra $305M and $1,334M; net income attributable to common stock $258M and $1,238M after $47M and $96M of preferred dividends; diluted earnings per share $0.76 for the quarter against $0.81 and $3.64 for the six months against $(0.11); weighted average diluted shares 339,230,976; Adjusted EBITDA by segment for the quarter: Retail $773M, Texas $311M, East $642M, West $68M, Sunset $(23)M, Corporate and Other $(27)M, total $1,744M, against Retail $756M, Texas $142M, East $418M, West $49M a year earlier; 335,635,195 shares of common stock outstanding as of 3 August 2026 — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedReported earnings were $305 million of net income and $0.76 of diluted earnings per share against $0.81 — and the six-month figures show the volatility more clearly: $3.64 per diluted share for the first half of 2026 against a...
    Vistra Corp. Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 — operating revenues $4,017M for the quarter against $4,250M a year earlier and $9,657M for the six months against $8,183M; operating income $553M and $2,052M; net income attributable to Vistra $305M and $1,334M; net income attributable to common stock $258M and $1,238M after $47M and $96M of preferred dividends; diluted earnings per share $0.76 for the quarter against $0.81 and $3.64 for the six months against $(0.11); weighted average diluted shares 339,230,976; Adjusted EBITDA by segment for the quarter: Retail $773M, Texas $311M, East $642M, West $68M, Sunset $(23)M, Corporate and Other $(27)M, total $1,744M, against Retail $756M, Texas $142M, East $418M, West $49M a year earlier; 335,635,195 shares of common stock outstanding as of 3 August 2026 — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedReported earnings were $305 million of net income and $0.76 of diluted earnings per share against $0.81 — and the six-month figures show the volatility more clearly: $3.64 per diluted share for the first half of 2026 against a...
    Vistra Corp. Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 — operating revenues $4,017M for the quarter against $4,250M a year earlier and $9,657M for the six months against $8,183M; operating income $553M and $2,052M; net income attributable to Vistra $305M and $1,334M; net income attributable to common stock $258M and $1,238M after $47M and $96M of preferred dividends; diluted earnings per share $0.76 for the quarter against $0.81 and $3.64 for the six months against $(0.11); weighted average diluted shares 339,230,976; Adjusted EBITDA by segment for the quarter: Retail $773M, Texas $311M, East $642M, West $68M, Sunset $(23)M, Corporate and Other $(27)M, total $1,744M, against Retail $756M, Texas $142M, East $418M, West $49M a year earlier; 335,635,195 shares of common stock outstanding as of 3 August 2026 — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedGuidance was reaffirmed rather than raised: 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion
    Vistra Corp. second quarter 2026 results, 7 August 2026 — Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,767 million against $1,349 million in Q2 2025 and $1,412 million in Q2 2024, an increase of more than 30%, on revenue of $4.02 billion that missed consensus by roughly a third; 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion; 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA, trending toward the lower end, with those two items potentially adding roughly $700 million; approximately 171 million shares retired at an average cost of approximately $38 per share since November 2021 and more than $6.5 billion returned to shareholders through 3 August 2026; approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchase authorisation remaining, expected to be completed no later than year-end 2027, with a target of at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases and approximately $300 million of common dividends annually; a $1 billion commitment to the Helix data centre platform — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedFor 2027 the midpoint opportunity range is $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta agreement, with the company noting it is trending toward the lower end and that the two excluded items could add roughly...
    Vistra and Meta announce agreements to support nuclear plants in PJM, 9 January 2026 — twenty-year power purchase agreements under which Vistra will supply Meta with a total of 2,609 MW of carbon-free power and capacity from its PJM nuclear plants: 1,268 MW of energy and capacity from Perry and 908 MW from Davis-Besse, plus 213 MW of uprate energy and capacity from Perry, 80 MW from Davis-Besse and 140 MW from Beaver Valley; delivery commences on a portion of the operating energy and capacity in late 2026 with full delivery by year end 2027, and uprate delivery commences in 2031 with full delivery by year end 2034; Vistra agreed to be the preferred power partner for Helix Digital Infrastructure, a newly formed company designed to develop infrastructure for AI-oriented hyperscalers. Meta contracted up to 6.6 GW of nuclear power across agreements with Vistra, Oklo and TerraPower announced the same day — January 2026 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedCapital returns continue: approximately $1.2 billion of repurchase authorisation remained, to be completed no later than year-end 2027, alongside a target of at least $1 billion of annual buybacks and roughly $300 million of...
    Vistra Corp. second quarter 2026 results, 7 August 2026 — Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,767 million against $1,349 million in Q2 2025 and $1,412 million in Q2 2024, an increase of more than 30%, on revenue of $4.02 billion that missed consensus by roughly a third; 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance reaffirmed at $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG at $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion; 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion excluding Cogentrix and the Meta PPA, trending toward the lower end, with those two items potentially adding roughly $700 million; approximately 171 million shares retired at an average cost of approximately $38 per share since November 2021 and more than $6.5 billion returned to shareholders through 3 August 2026; approximately $1.2 billion of share repurchase authorisation remaining, expected to be completed no later than year-end 2027, with a target of at least $1 billion of annual share repurchases and approximately $300 million of common dividends annually; a $1 billion commitment to the Helix data centre platform — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedThe shares finished the quarter about 38% below the high they set in September 2025
    Vistra (NYSE: VST) market data — share price $137.09 on 28 August 2026, market capitalisation $46.01 billion on 335.64 million shares outstanding; trailing price/earnings 23.4 and forward 13.3; trailing twelve-month revenue $19.21 billion, net income $2.03 billion and EPS $5.87; dividend $0.92 a share, a yield of 0.67%; 52-week range $132.66 to $219.82, with an all-time high close of $219.82 on 22 September 2025; the shares returned 257.92% in 2024 and closed that year at $137.87 — August 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026