⚠ Full Capacity in 2032Moderate threat

The Comanche Peak agreement begins delivering in the fourth quarter of 2027 and does not reach full capacity until 2032¹. That is two years before the first meaningful revenue and seven before the full amount.

Long ramps exist for good reasons — the buyer's data centres have to be built, and the seller has existing hedges and obligations to unwind — and they leave a lot of room. Over seven years the power market can change, the buyer's compute strategy can change, and the contract's fixed price can become either an embarrassment or a windfall for one side.

The more immediate issue is what the announcement did to expectations. The market capitalised the agreement immediately and will receive the cash flows over a period beginning after the next presidential term. In between, Vistra's reported results reflect the old business — merchant ERCOT output at whatever the market pays — while the multiple reflects the new one.

There is also a specific structural point. The agreement covers 1,200 megawatts, which is one of two Comanche Peak units. Until the contracted volumes actually flow, Vistra bears the risk of an outage at a plant whose output it has sold forward, and after they flow it bears the obligation.

The number to watch is not the announcement pipeline. It is contracted volumes actually delivered, which will first show up in the Texas segment's results in late 2027.