PAM4 and the Physics of Going FasterWide moat

Marvell Technology (MRVL) — moat facet

Each doubling makes the problem worse than twice as hard — which is why the field of capable suppliers shrinks.

The reason a signal processor is needed at all is that light travelling through fibre, and electricity travelling through copper, arrive distorted. PAM4 encoding squeezes two bits into each signal level to double throughput, at the cost of much tighter tolerances — and it falls to the DSP to reconstruct a clean signal from a degraded one.

Data center revenue by quarter ($m)$1,491mQ2 FY2026$1,833mQ1 FY2027$2,172mQ2 FY2027Marvell Q2 fiscal 2027 results release
Data center revenue up 46% in a year and 18% in the June quarter alone.

This is a moat with an unusual property: it deepens with each generation. Moving from 400 gigabit to 800 to 1.6 terabit does not make the problem 2x or 4x harder; noise, power and manufacturing tolerance all worsen disproportionately, so the number of companies capable of shipping a working part at the newest speed shrinks rather than grows. Marvell's advantage is that it has been through this transition several times and has silicon-proven IP each time.

The vulnerability is that a hard problem is not an impossible one, and the rewards for solving it keep rising. Watch time-to-market at each new speed grade: being first with a working DSP at the newest rate is the entire advantage, because module makers design around whatever is available when they need it and rarely change mid-generation. Being early repeatedly is how the optics franchise helped carry data-center revenue past $6 billion in fiscal 20261.

Moat trajectory: Widening

This is the rare technical moat that compounds: each doubling of speed worsens noise, power and tolerance disproportionately, so fewer companies can ship a working part at the newest rate than at the last one. Widening as long as Marvell arrives first.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Data center revenue growth, quarter on quarter
+18% in Q2 fiscal 2027

Each speed generation ramps as sequential growth; a flat quarter at a generational switch would suggest a late product.

Source: Marvell Q2 fiscal 2027 results release (Exhibit 99.1, 27 August 2026) ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
References
  1. ReportedData center revenue passed $6B in fiscal 2026.
    Marvell fiscal 2026 results (Q4/FY2026 press release) — record revenue $8,194.6M (+42%); data center revenue above $6B, ~74% of total; non-GAAP operating margin 35.3% (+640bps); non-GAAP EPS $2.84 (+81%); free cash flow ~$1.4B; GAAP net income $2,670.1M, or $3.07 per diluted share — FY2026 (ended Jan 31, 2026) · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026