⚠ The Silver Tonnage Has Not Moved EitherModerate threat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — threat to the moat

Silver output has drifted down for three years - every złoty of the increase, and more, is price.

If silver is the thing rescuing this company, it is worth noticing that KGHM is not producing more of it.

Metallic silver sales (tonnes)1 35220231 34720241 3362025Silver revenue rose from 4 389m zł to 6 133m zł over the same three years
KGHM did not find, mine or refine more silver. It sold slightly less into a far better market.

Metallic silver sales were 1 352 tonnes in 2023, then 1 347 and 1 336 in 20251 — three years drifting gently downward. Production tells the same story: 1 403 tonnes in 2023 against 1 323 in 20252.

So the entire increase in silver revenue — 4 389 million złoty in 2023 to 6 133 million in 20253 — is price, and more than price, since the tonnage fell. The average silver price went from 23,35 dollars an ounce to 40,03 over those years4. KGHM did not find more silver, mine more silver or refine more silver. It sold roughly the same tonnage into a much better market.

That has an uncomfortable implication for the by-product credit. The credit's size is a function of the silver price alone, and the silver price in the first half of 2026 has been extraordinarily volatile — the strategy published in July 2026 assumes 58,18 dollars an ounce for the plan period5, which is well above the 40,03 that 2025 averaged and well below the levels seen earlier in the year.

Watch tonnes, not złoty. Silver output has been flat for six years, and a flat volume into a falling price is the one combination that removes the credit and leaves the 52 201-zloty pre-credit cost standing on its own6.

References
  1. ReportedMetallic silver sales were 1 352 tonnes in 2023, then 1 347 and 1 336 in 2025 — three years drifting gently downward.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedProduction tells the same story: 1 403 tonnes in 2023 against 1 323 in 2025.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedSo the entire increase in silver revenue — 4 389 million złoty in 2023 to 6 133 million in 2025 — is price, and more than price, since the tonnage fell.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2024, which carries the 2023 comparatives (minerals extraction tax of 3 496m złoty in 2023 against a group loss of 3 691m for that year, parent silver revenue of 4 389m, and parent employee benefits expense of 5 475m) — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. March 2025 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe average silver price went from 23,35 dollars an ounce to 40,03 over those years.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the financial review and metal markets (adjusted EBITDA of 10 276m złoty against 8 457m in 2024, 5 362m in 2023, 8 865m in 2022 and 10 327m in 2021, of which Sierra Gorda contributed 3 115m and KGHM INTERNATIONAL 1 860m; average copper of 9 945 USD/t against 8 478 in 2023; average silver of 40,03 USD/oz against 28,27 in 2024 and 23,35 in 2023; and an average USD/PLN rate of 3,76 against 4,20 in 2023) — FY2021-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe credit's size is a function of the silver price alone, and the silver price in the first half of 2026 has been extraordinarily volatile — the strategy published in July 2026 assumes 58,18 dollars an ounce for the plan period, which is...
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, the Strategy of the KGHM Group 2055+ approved on 3 July 2026 and its targets (payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year of which about 590 thousand from Polish assets including 180 thousand from scrap, adjusted EBITDA averaging 12 billion złoty at a 25,6% margin, capital expenditure above 32 billion złoty across 2026-2030, at least 220 MW of installed renewable capacity, the Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line at 725 million dollars raising output about 20% while shortening the life of mine by three years, the Deep Glogow Deposit Access Program, and shareholders including the State Treasury at 31,79%) — 2026-2030 and beyond · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedSilver output has been flat for six years, and a flat volume into a falling price is the one combination that removes the credit and leaves the 52 201-zloty pre-credit cost standing on its own.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026