⚠ Polish Copper Output Has Not Grown in Six YearsHigh threat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — threat to the moat

571 thousand tonnes against 592 in 2023, and 2026's growth came from buying other people's metal.

The reserve is enormous and the production line is flat.

Electrolytic copper from the Polish assets (kt)202020212022202320242025A peak in the middle, and a finish below where the middle was
Six years of heavy spending, and slightly less copper at the end of it than three years earlier.

Electrolytic copper from the Polish assets went 560,4 thousand tonnes in 2020, then 577,6, 586,0, 592,4, 588,7 and 570,9 in 20251. Six years, a peak in the middle, and a finish below where the middle was. This is a company that has spent heavily and produced slightly less copper at the end of it than it did three years earlier.

The first half of 2026 looks better and mostly is not. Electrolytic copper production rose 7,0% to 291,5 thousand tonnes — but production from KGHM's own concentrate rose 0,6%, to 183,6 thousand tonnes2. The growth came from buying other people's material and running it through the smelter, which is a real business and a different one.

That gap matters because the mine is where the moat is. Refining purchased concentrate is a toll KGHM earns in competition with every other smelter; mining its own ore is the thing nobody else can do. Growth in the second is worth several times growth in the first, and the second is not growing.

The strategy concedes the shape of it. The 2026-2030 target is payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year for the group, of which about 590 thousand from the Polish assets — and about 180 thousand of that 590 is explicitly to come from scrap3.

Watch production from own concentrate rather than the headline. It is the only one of the two numbers that reflects the orebody, and it has moved 0,6% in a year when the headline moved seven times as fast.

References
  1. ReportedElectrolytic copper from the Polish assets went 560,4 thousand tonnes in 2020, then 577,6, 586,0, 592,4, 588,7 and 570,9 in 2025.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedElectrolytic copper production rose 7,0% to 291,5 thousand tonnes — but production from KGHM's own concentrate rose 0,6%, to 183,6 thousand tonnes.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, production, unit costs and employment (electrolytic copper of 291,5 thousand tonnes of which 183,6 thousand from own concentrate, metallic silver of 696,7 tonnes, the pre-precious-metals-credit unit cost of 52 201 złoty a tonne against a total unit cost of 17,415, C1 of 2,44 USD/lb, average group employment of 34 543 including 18 870 at the parent, and payable copper from the international assets of 59,5 thousand tonnes of which Sierra Gorda 40,2 and Robinson 17,7) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThe 2026-2030 target is payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year for the group, of which about 590 thousand from the Polish assets — and about 180 thousand of that 590 is explicitly to come from scrap.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, the Strategy of the KGHM Group 2055+ approved on 3 July 2026 and its targets (payable copper production above 730 thousand tonnes a year of which about 590 thousand from Polish assets including 180 thousand from scrap, adjusted EBITDA averaging 12 billion złoty at a 25,6% margin, capital expenditure above 32 billion złoty across 2026-2030, at least 220 MW of installed renewable capacity, the Sierra Gorda fourth grinding line at 725 million dollars raising output about 20% while shortening the life of mine by three years, the Deep Glogow Deposit Access Program, and shareholders including the State Treasury at 31,79%) — 2026-2030 and beyond · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026