⚠ The Wage Bill Rises Whether Copper Does or NotHigh threat

KGHM Polska Miedź (KGH) — threat to the moat

Wages take their share of the good years through bonuses and do not hand it back in the bad ones.

KGHM's largest cost is people, and the number of them barely changes while the amount they cost keeps climbing.

Employee benefits expense at the parent (zl m)202320242025Average parent employment fell 0,4% over the same period
This is price, not headcount - set by Polish wage inflation and by being the only large employer in the region.

Employee benefits expense at the parent was 5 475 million złoty in 2023, then 5 891 and 6 303 in 20251 — up 15% in two years, and rising in every one of them. Average employment over roughly the same span has been flat: 18 870 at the parent in the first half of 2026 against 18 953 a year earlier, a fall of 0,4%2.

So this is price, not headcount, and the price is set by Polish wage inflation and by a workforce with the bargaining position that comes from being the only large employer in its region. In the first half of 2026 labour costs rose a further 617 million złoty, up 21%, of which 473 million was an upward adjustment to the provision for the annual bonus3 — the bonus rising because the metals did.

That is the asymmetry. Wages participate in the good years through bonuses and settlements, and they do not give the gains back in the bad ones. The wage bill rose in 2023, the year the group lost 3 691 million złoty4, and it has risen in every year since.

Reducing the workforce is not a realistic lever. A state-shareholder company that is the economic centre of a voivodeship does not make thousands of miners redundant to protect a margin.

The measure is employee benefits per tonne of copper produced. Both halves are disclosed, and the trend has been one way for five years.

References
  1. ReportedEmployee benefits expense at the parent was 5 475 million złoty in 2023, then 5 891 and 6 303 in 2025 — up 15% in two years, and rising in every one of them.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2024, which carries the 2023 comparatives (minerals extraction tax of 3 496m złoty in 2023 against a group loss of 3 691m for that year, parent silver revenue of 4 389m, and parent employee benefits expense of 5 475m) — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. March 2025 · source ↗
  2. ReportedAverage employment over roughly the same span has been flat: 18 870 at the parent in the first half of 2026 against 18 953 a year earlier, a fall of 0,4%.
    Market data (stockanalysis.com, cross-checked against a second source) - a close of 347,25 złoty a share on 22 September 2026, within a day that ranged 339,45 to 350,60, on 200 million shares for a market value of about 69,5bn złoty, roughly 8,0 times trailing net profit of 8 687m złoty and 1,7 times book, on trailing twelve-month revenue of 43 521m złoty and earnings of 43,44 złoty a share; eleven analysts average a 318,28 target, five rating the shares a strong sell against three a strong buy — 22 September 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedIn the first half of 2026 labour costs rose a further 617 million złoty, up 21%, of which 473 million was an upward adjustment to the provision for the annual bonus — the bonus rising because the metals did.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in the first half of 2026, financial results (revenue of 24 711m złoty up 40,8%, profit for the period of 5 579m against 580m, adjusted EBITDA of 9 198m up 89,1%, capital expenditure of 1 663m, net debt down 13,5% to 4 691m, equity of 39 814m, available financing of 16 978m, and the 1 979m złoty increase in the minerals extraction tax on higher copper and silver prices) — H1 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe wage bill rose in 2023, the year the group lost 3 691 million złoty, and it has risen in every year since.
    KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Group - Management Board's report on activities in 2025, the production and unit-cost record (electrolytic copper of 570,9 thousand tonnes against 588,7 in 2024, 592,4 in 2023 and 560,4 in 2020; metallic silver of 1 323 tonnes against 1 403 in 2023; C1 payable copper production cost of 3,16 USD/lb for the Polish assets against 1,03 for KGHM INTERNATIONAL and 0,86 for Sierra Gorda; group payable copper of 710,0 thousand tonnes against 753,7 in 2021; wire rod and wire production of 279,9 thousand tonnes; and world mined silver production of about 25,3 thousand tonnes) — FY2018-FY2025 · publ. 10 March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026