⚠ A Record That Makes the PriceModerate threat

ITOCHU (8001) — threat to the moat

The more the market pays for ITOCHU's record, the harder it is to repeat.

Eleven years of outperformance1 have taken ITOCHU's multiple from about 7 times earnings at March 2015 to about 17 times now23. The next decade's returns depend more on profit growth and less on re-rating.

P/E at March year-end6.820158.0201813.3202111.6202415.32026Market value over net profit; ITOCHU financial sections
From under seven times to over fifteen.

The company's guidance for the current year is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%4.

The forward multiple is about 16 times5, against about 17 times trailing, which is the market expecting modest growth.

The measure is total shareholder return against TOPIX in the current year.

References
  1. ReportedEleven years of outperformance have taken ITOCHU's multiple from about 7 times earnings at March 2015 to about 17 times now.
    ITOCHU Corporation, FY2025 Business Results and FY2026 Management Plan - shareholder returns (dividends, buybacks and payout), ROE, leverage and share-price performance against TOPIX. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 14 May 2026 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcEleven years of outperformance have taken ITOCHU's multiple from about 7 times earnings at March 2015 to about 17 times now.
    Moat Explorer calculation from ITOCHU's reported figures. Trailing twelve months to June 2026: net profit 900.3 - 283.9 + 293.8 = 910.1; revenue 14,823.1 - 3,558.9 + 3,875.9 = 15,140.1; EPS 128.00 - 40.10 + 42.02 = 129.92. Market value at 24 September 2026: 6,993,053,267 shares x ¥2,220.5 = ¥15.53 trillion. P/E at March year-end: market value over net profit, e.g. 13,802 / 900.3 = 15.3 (2026), 6,090 / 820.3 = 7.4 (2022), 3,046 / 500.5 = 6.1 (2019). Non-resource share of profit: 774.7 / (774.7 + 133.3) = 85%. Segment net profit over segment assets, year to March 2026: Machinery 155.6 / 2,603.5 = 6.0%; Metals & Minerals 143.5 / 1,793.4 = 8.0%; ICT & Financial 93.0 / 1,577.2 = 5.9%; Food 92.1 / 2,403.4 = 3.8%; Energy & Chemicals 69.3 / 1,819.4 = 3.8%; General Products & Realty 60.8 / 1,628.7 = 3.7%; The 8th 45.0 / 2,197.3 = 2.0%; Textile 43.3 / 751.9 = 5.8%. Segment net margin on revenue: Food 92.1 / 5,134.2 = 1.8%; Energy & Chemicals 69.3 / 3,069.6 = 2.3%; Machinery 155.6 / 1,500.6 = 10.4%; Metals & Minerals 143.5 / 1,231.5 = 11.7%. Berkshire's market value over cost: 8,886 / 4,165 = 2.13 times; dividend on cost 181 / 4,165 = 4.3%. Self-tender: 82,735,750 x ¥1,813 = about ¥150.0 billion. Net profit growth since the year to March 2016: 900.3 / 240.4 = 3.7 times. Dividend growth: 42.0 / 10.0 = 4.2 times (split-adjusted). ROE spread over the company's cost of capital: 14.6 - 8 = 6.6 points. Equity growth: 6,590.0 / 5,755.1 = 1.15. Stake in DENTSU SOKEN at the tender price: ¥215.2 billion for 38%. ACG profit target over investment: ¥50 billion is the aerospace target, about ¥310 billion the ACG investment. Berkshire's stake at ¥2,220.5: 704,799,500 x 2,220.5 = about ¥1.565 trillion. ITOCHU over Marubeni net profit: 900.3 / 543.9 = 1.66. 8% hurdle on the CSN Mineração additional investment: 0.08 x 119.2 = 9.5. 8% hurdle on ¥215.2 billion: about ¥17.2 billion. — FY to March 2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
    Method: Arithmetic on figures reported in ITOCHU's financial statements, results decks and market data; operands shown in the source line.
  3. ReportedEleven years of outperformance have taken ITOCHU's multiple from about 7 times earnings at March 2015 to about 17 times now.
    ITOCHU (TYO: 8001) market data - share price, trailing net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, 52-week range and analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe company's guidance for the current year is net profit of ¥950.0 billion, up 5.5%.
    ITOCHU Corporation, Consolidated Financial Results for the year ended March 31, 2026 (IFRS) - statements of comprehensive income, financial position and cash flows, the segment information by eight division companies, the share split, dividends, the buyback plan and the forecast for the year to March 2027. — FY to March 2026 · publ. 1 May 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe forward multiple is about 16 times, against about 17 times trailing, which is the market expecting modest growth.
    ITOCHU (TYO: 8001) market data - share price, trailing net income, P/E, forward P/E, dividend and yield, 52-week range and analysts' target, September 2026. — September 2026 · publ. 24 September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026