The Dividend Nobody Will CutWide moat

ExxonMobil (XOM) — moat facet

The dividend survived a twenty-two billion dollar loss, which is worth more than any yield calculation.

ExxonMobil paid $4.00 a share in 2025 against $3.84 in 2024 and $3.68 in 2023, for a total of $17,231 million1, and declared $1.03 a quarter for the third quarter of 20262. At the September 2026 share price that is a yield of about 2.5 per cent3.

Dividends per share, and what they cost$3.682023$3.842024$4.002025$4.12Q3 2026 rate x4$17,231m paid in 2025, covered 1.4 times by free cash flow before a dollar of buyback.
A distribution that survived a $22,440 million loss year is worth more than any yield calculation.

The number that gives the dividend its meaning is not the yield. It is that the company paid and raised it through 2020, when it lost $22,440 million4 — a year in which there were no earnings to pay it from at all. The payout came out of the balance sheet, and it was not reduced.

What that buys is a specific and valuable kind of shareholder. An income investor who has watched a company defend its distribution through a catastrophic year holds the stock through the next one, which lowers the cost of equity and stabilises the register. It is close to the only part of ExxonMobil's proposition that is not a function of the oil price.

What it costs is flexibility, and the cost is rising. $17,231 million of dividends is now a fixed annual obligation against operating cash flow that was $55,369 million in 2023, $55,022 million in 2024 and $51,970 million in 20255. Add $20 billion of buyback commitment and roughly $28 billion of capital spending and the arithmetic only works at a price above where it currently sits — which is why the 2025 shortfall came out of the cash balance6.

The company's plan assumes it works. The December 2025 Corporate Plan Update projects roughly $145 billion of cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 Brent7, a price slightly below 2025's realised $69.068. That is a defensible assumption and it is an assumption.

Check dividend coverage from free cash flow rather than from earnings. In 2025 free cash flow was about $23.6 billion against $17,231 million of dividends9 — covered 1.4 times, before a dollar of buyback. In the first half of 2026, $19,935 million against $8.6 billion10 — 2.3 times. The dividend is safe. The dividend plus the buyback is the thing that is not always covered.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Dividends per share went $3.68, $3.84, $4.00 and the quarterly rate rose again to $1.03 for the third quarter of 2026. Coverage from free cash flow was 1.4 times in 2025 and 2.3 times in the first half of 2026. The dividend is not the exposure; the dividend plus a $20 billion buyback is.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
Dividend cover from free cash flow
1.4 times in 2025

Free cash flow of about $23.6 billion against $17,231 million of dividends, before a dollar of buyback. In the first half of 2026 it was 2.3 times. The dividend has survived a $22,440 million loss year and is not the exposure; the dividend plus a $20 billion buyback is.

Source: Moat Explorer calculation from the FY2025 cash flow statement ↗
⚠ Threats to the moat
⚠ THREAT 01
A Dividend That Cannot Be Cut Is a Fixed Cost
A distribution that cannot be cut has stopped being discretionary and started being a fixed charge.
References
  1. ReportedExxonMobil paid $4.00 a share in 2025 against $3.84 in 2024 and $3.68 in 2023, for a total of $17,231 million, and declared $1.03 a quarter for the third quarter of 2026.
    Exxon Mobil Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025, Management's Discussion and Analysis — Liquidity and Capital Resources: cash flow from operating, investing and financing activities, dividends per share and total dividends paid, the share repurchase programme and the stated repurchase pace, and total debt. — FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedExxonMobil paid $4.00 a share in 2025 against $3.84 in 2024 and $3.68 in 2023, for a total of $17,231 million, and declared $1.03 a quarter for the third quarter of 2026.
    ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K of 31 July 2026) — earnings and volume summary by segment on both a GAAP and an adjusted basis, cash flow from operations excluding working capital, free cash flow, cash capital expenditures by segment, structural cost savings, adjusting items, and the chief executive's commentary. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedAt the September 2026 share price that is a yield of about 2.5 per cent.
    ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) market data - share price, market capitalisation, trailing and forward price/earnings, trailing revenue and net income, earnings per share, dividend and yield, shares outstanding and the 52-week range. — 23 September 2026 · publ. 23 September 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt is that the company paid and raised it through 2020, when it lost $22,440 million — a year in which there were no earnings to pay it from at all.
    Exxon Mobil Corporation Form 10-K for FY2020, consolidated statement of income — sales and other operating revenue and net income attributable to ExxonMobil for 2020, 2019 and 2018, including the $22,440 million loss recorded in 2020. — FY2018-FY2020 · publ. February 2021 · source ↗
  5. Reported$17,231 million of dividends is now a fixed annual obligation against operating cash flow that was $55,369 million in 2023, $55,022 million in 2024 and $51,970 million in 2025.
    Exxon Mobil Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025, consolidated financial statements — statement of income, balance sheet, statement of cash flows and statement of changes in equity including the common stock share activity table. — FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAdd $20 billion of buyback commitment and roughly $28 billion of capital spending and the arithmetic only works at a price above where it currently sits — which is why the 2025 shortfall came out of the cash balance.
    Exxon Mobil Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025, consolidated financial statements — statement of income, balance sheet, statement of cash flows and statement of changes in equity including the common stock share activity table. — FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedThe December 2025 Corporate Plan Update projects roughly $145 billion of cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 Brent, a price slightly below 2025's realised $69.06.
    ExxonMobil news release, 'ExxonMobil raises its 2030 Plan' — $25 billion of earnings growth and $35 billion of cash flow growth by 2030 at constant prices and margins, production of 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day about 30% above the next closest international oil company, unit earnings above $15 per barrel, cash capital expenditure of $27-$29 billion in 2026 and $28-$32 billion a year from 2027 to 2030, and approximately $145 billion of cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 Brent. — 2026-2030 plan · publ. 9 December 2025 · source ↗
  8. ReportedThe December 2025 Corporate Plan Update projects roughly $145 billion of cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030 at $65 Brent, a price slightly below 2025's realised $69.06.
    Exxon Mobil Corporation Form 10-K for FY2025, Market Risks — worldwide average realisations for Brent, Henry Hub and TTF, and the disclosed sensitivity of Upstream earnings to a one dollar change in Brent, a ten cent change in Henry Hub and a ten cent change in TTF. — FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  9. Moat Explorer calcIn 2025 free cash flow was about $23.6 billion against $17,231 million of dividends — covered 1.4 times, before a dollar of buyback.
    Moat Explorer calculation from ExxonMobil's reported figures. Crude oil and product purchases of $184,248 million against total costs and other deductions of $290,970 million is 63.3% (2024: $199,454m of $300,712m = 66.3%; 2023: $193,029m of $291,799m = 66.2%). Intersegment revenue of $121,005 million against gross segment revenue of $452,209 million is 26.8%. Depreciation and depletion of $25,993 million against sales of $323,905 million is 8.0% (2023: $20,641m of $334,697m = 6.2%). Income tax of $11,504 million on pre-tax income of $41,268 million is 27.9% (2024: $13,810m of $48,873m = 28.3%; 2023: $15,429m of $52,783m = 29.2%). Revenue outside ASC 606 of $96,996 million of $323,905 million is 29.9% (2024: 27.7%; 2023: 23.4%). The three downstream segments sum to $17,493m (2023), $9,662m (2024) and $11,080m (2025), a rise of $1,418m in 2025 against an Upstream fall of $4,036m. Refinery throughput of 3,979 against production of 4,736 thousand barrels a day is 0.84. Specialty Products earned $2,857m on 7,791 thousand tonnes ($367/t) against $3,052m on 7,666 ($398/t). Free cash flow of $51,970m less $28,358m is $23,612m against distributions of $17,231m plus $20,273m = $37,504m. Energy Products averaged $7.9 billion a year across 2023-2025. — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  10. ReportedIn the first half of 2026, $19,935 million against $8.6 billion — 2.3 times.
    ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K of 31 July 2026) — earnings and volume summary by segment on both a GAAP and an adjusted basis, cash flow from operations excluding working capital, free cash flow, cash capital expenditures by segment, structural cost savings, adjusting items, and the chief executive's commentary. — Q2 2026 · publ. 31 July 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026