ZepboundNarrow moat

Eli Lilly (LLY) — moat facet

$13.5 billion in two years, almost all American, and slowing to 46% growth as payers push back.

Zepbound is tirzepatide sold for weight management, and almost all of its revenue is American. It brought in $13,542 million in 2025, of which $13,484 million came from the United States.1

Zepbound revenue growth (%)+175%2025+60%H1 26+46%Q2 26Year on year; Form 10-K FY2025 and 10-Q June 2026
Still growing fast, but slowing each period.

What is inside the line is one medicine under an obesity label in three countries: the United States, Canada and Japan. Elsewhere, the same molecule for weight loss is sold as Mounjaro.2 That is why Zepbound's outside-U.S. revenue was only $55 million in the June 2026 quarter.3

The history is the fastest in the portfolio. Zepbound launched late in 2023 and brought in $176 million that year, $4,926 million in 2024 and $13,542 million in 2025.456 U.S. revenue rose 174% in 2025, driven by demand and partly offset by lower realized prices.7

It is paid for in two ways. Most patients buy through insurance, at a net price negotiated with benefit managers. A growing number buy through LillyDirect, Lilly's direct-to-patient platform.8 Rebates, discounts and returns deducted from Lilly's gross sales rose from $41.5 billion in 2024 to $62.1 billion in 2025.910

Profitability is not disclosed by product. Growth has slowed from its launch pace: first-half 2026 revenue was $9,088 million against $5,693 million, up 60%, and the June quarter's $4,928 million was up 46%.1112 U.S. Zepbound revenue grew from $3,380 million to $4,873 million in a year.13

The outlook turns on coverage. Obesity drugs are the category payers most want to limit, and the self-pay channel exists because many plans still do not cover them. Foundayo, the oral pill, is aimed at the same patients at a lower entry price; its first quarter brought $98 million.14

This is a narrow moat: a better drug in a market with one strong rival and payers pushing back on price. The number to follow is U.S. Zepbound revenue growth, 44% in the June 2026 quarter. Below 20% while prescriptions keep rising would mean price, not demand, has become the limit.

Moat trajectory: Holding steady

Growth slowed from 174% in 2025 to 46% in the June 2026 quarter as coverage limits bite.

The number that tests this moat
Moat Explorer calc
U.S. Zepbound revenue growth, latest quarter
+44% in Q2 2026 ($4.87B against $3.38B)

Below 20% while prescriptions still rise would mean price, not demand, has become the limit.

How it's calculated: 4,873 / 3,380 - 1.
Source: Lilly Form 10-Q, June 2026 (Moat Explorer calc) ↗
References
  1. ReportedIt brought in $13,542 million in 2025, of which $13,484 million came from the United States.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedElsewhere, the same molecule for weight loss is sold as Mounjaro.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedThat is why Zepbound's outside-U.S. revenue was only $55 million in the June 2026 quarter.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedZepbound launched late in 2023 and brought in $176 million that year, $4,926 million in 2024 and $13,542 million in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2023 - revenue by product 2022-2023 (Trulicity $7,440M/$7,133M, Mounjaro $483M/$5,163M, Verzenio $2,484M/$3,863M, Humalog $2,061M/$1,663M, Alimta $928M/$218M, COVID-19 antibodies $2,024M/nil, Zepbound $176M); income statement 2021-2023; price +4% and volume +16% in 2023; rebates deducted $28,398M (2022) and $37,867M (2023); capital expenditure $1,310M/$1,854M/$3,448M — FY2021-FY2023 · publ. February 2024 · source ↗
  5. ReportedZepbound launched late in 2023 and brought in $176 million that year, $4,926 million in 2024 and $13,542 million in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2024 - revenue by product 2023-2024 (Mounjaro $11,540M, Zepbound $4,926M, Trulicity $5,254M, Verzenio $5,307M, Humalog $2,325M, Basaglar $677M); price +5% and volume +27% in 2024 (U.S. price +8%); rebates deducted $41,452M — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedZepbound launched late in 2023 and brought in $176 million that year, $4,926 million in 2024 and $13,542 million in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedU.S. revenue rose 174% in 2025, driven by demand and partly offset by lower realized prices.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  8. ReportedA growing number buy through LillyDirect, Lilly's direct-to-patient platform.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  9. ReportedRebates, discounts and returns deducted from Lilly's gross sales rose from $41.5 billion in 2024 to $62.1 billion in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2024 - revenue by product 2023-2024 (Mounjaro $11,540M, Zepbound $4,926M, Trulicity $5,254M, Verzenio $5,307M, Humalog $2,325M, Basaglar $677M); price +5% and volume +27% in 2024 (U.S. price +8%); rebates deducted $41,452M — FY2023-FY2024 · publ. February 2025 · source ↗
  10. ReportedRebates, discounts and returns deducted from Lilly's gross sales rose from $41.5 billion in 2024 to $62.1 billion in 2025.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-K, FY2025 - revenue $65,179M (Mounjaro $22,965M, Zepbound $13,542M, Verzenio $5,723M); gross margin 83.0% (81.3%); R&D $13,337M; marketing, selling and administrative $11,094M; acquired IPR&D $2,910M; net income $20,640M; price -6% and volume +50% (U.S. price -10%, volume +53%); rebates, discounts and returns deducted $62,135M; capital expenditure $7,841M; operating cash flow $16,813M ($8,818M, $4,240M); U.S. compound patents: Cyramza 2026, Trulicity 2027, Jardiance 2029, Verzenio 2031, Olumiant 2032, Mounjaro/Zepbound 2036, Jaypirca 2037, Retevmo 2038, Inluriyo 2039; HHS selected Trulicity and Verzenio in January 2026 for government-set prices effective 2028; six products above $3 billion were 82% of revenue; three wholesalers each 16%-24% of revenue — FY2023-FY2025 · publ. February 2026 · source ↗
  11. ReportedGrowth has slowed from its launch pace: first-half 2026 revenue was $9,088 million against $5,693 million, up 60%, and the June quarter's $4,928 million was up 46%.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  12. Moat Explorer calcGrowth has slowed from its launch pace: first-half 2026 revenue was $9,088 million against $5,693 million, up 60%, and the June quarter's $4,928 million was up 46%.
    Moat Explorer calculation from Lilly's Forms 10-K FY2021-FY2025 and the Q2 2026 10-Q: tirzepatide (Mounjaro + Zepbound) $36,507M in 2025, $14,871M in Q2 2026 ($8,580M), trailing twelve months $49,466M; trailing revenue $79,666M; margins and shares as stated — 2021 to Q2 2026 · publ. 2026-09-23 · source ↗
  13. ReportedU.S. Zepbound revenue grew from $3,380 million to $4,873 million in a year.
    Eli Lilly Form 10-Q, quarter ended 30 June 2026 - revenue $22,974M (+48%): Mounjaro $9,943M (U.S. $4,791M, outside $5,152M), Zepbound $4,928M, Jardiance $1,232M, Trulicity $1,219M, Verzenio $1,474M; oncology $2,570M, immunology $1,417M, neuroscience $429M; volume +60% and price -13% (U.S. +37%/-3%, outside +113%/-36%); gross margin 85.8% (84.3%); R&D $3,819M; MS&A $3,430M; acquired IPR&D $2,776M; special charges $703M; tax rate 23.3% (16.5%); net income $7,095M; diluted EPS $7.94; H1 capital expenditure $5,259M and operating cash flow $16,023M — Q2 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  14. ReportedFoundayo, the oral pill, is aimed at the same patients at a lower entry price; its first quarter brought $98 million.
    CNBC, Eli Lilly Q2 2026 earnings - Foundayo $98M in its first quarter, against about $103M expected — Q2 2026 · publ. August 5, 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026