Nikon and Canon: The Rivals Who WithdrewWide moat

Nikon and Canon are the only companies that have ever competed with ASML in lithography at scale, and both concluded that the next step was not worth taking. They exited advanced lithography development years ago and now supply legacy systems for mature nodes, leaving ASML with 100% of EUV and about 94% of the lithography market overall¹.

The reason is worth stating precisely, because it explains the moat better than any share figure. EUV took ASML roughly two decades and tens of billions of euros of development, absorbed with support from its own customers, and required an optical supply chain — principally Zeiss — that had to be developed in parallel. Nikon and Canon were not out-engineered. They looked at a programme with a twenty-year payback, uncertain physics and one possible outcome in which ASML got there first, and declined.

Where they remain relevant is the trailing edge. Mature-node fabs buying i-line and older DUV tools have real alternatives, and ASML's monopoly does not extend there — which is a useful reminder that the 94% is an average across markets where the position ranges from absolute to ordinary.

Watch for either company announcing a return to advanced lithography. It would not threaten ASML for a decade, and it would be the single clearest signal that someone credible believes the barrier is surmountable.