⚠ Concrete Is Hard to UnspendLow threat

Allegro (ALE) — threat to the moat

A courier contract can be handed back; a locker network gets written down.

Allegro spent two decades as a marketplace with no inventory and little equipment. It has now put more than 11 000 steel boxes in the ground1 and doubling its capital expenditure to do it2.

Two ways to buy deliveryCourier contractrenegotiable, pausable, handed backOwned locker networkwritten downCapex FY2025470,4m zł, more than doubledRival network scalelarger, and therefore cheaper per parcelAllegro is entering a business where its supplier has the advantage
A locker cannot be renegotiated in a bad year, which is the price of not having to negotiate at all.

The strategic case is strong and the accounting consequence is permanent. Property, plant and equipment rose to 1 383,2 million złoty from 1 022,3 million3, and unlike a courier contract a locker cannot be renegotiated, paused or handed back if volumes disappoint. A marketplace that leases its logistics can shrink; one that owns it writes the asset down.

The scale point cuts against Allegro too. InPost's network is the reason it had pricing power in the first place, and a rival with far more machines has a lower cost per parcel on every one of them. Allegro is entering a business where its competitor has the advantage Allegro usually enjoys.

There is no sign the bet is going badly. The managed share reached 41% from 24%4 and already cut 2,9 percentage points off delivery cost growth5.

The measure is delivery cost per parcel through 2027. Falling means the lockers earn their place. Flat or rising, after this much capital, would mean Allegro has bought a second-best network and still has to negotiate with the first.

References
  1. ReportedThe Allegro One locker network exceeded 11 thousand automated parcel machines by 30 June 2026.
    Allegro.eu Group half-year report for the six months ended 30 June 2026 (published 17 September 2026) - KPIs: active buyers, GMV, GMV per buyer, take rate by segment and its explanation, adjusted EBITDA; income statement by segment; cost of delivery; lockers; Allegro Pay; buyback phase 1 — H1 2026 · publ. 17 September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt is now putting 8 500 steel boxes in Polish streets and doubling its capital expenditure to do it.
    Allegro.eu Annual Consolidated Report 2025 - management report, cost review (cost of delivery of 3 578,9m złoty up 26,2% against revenue growth of 10,5%, its decomposition into Smart! volume, the expansion of Allegro Delivery and unit cost, the InPost pricing headwind under an agreement expiring in 2027, marketing service expenses at 2,07% of GMV, staff and IT costs, and capital expenditure of 470,4m) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedProperty, plant and equipment rose to 1 383,2 million złoty from 1 022,3 million, and unlike a courier contract a locker cannot be renegotiated, paused or handed back if volumes disappoint.
    Allegro.eu Annual Consolidated Report 2025 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total assets of 19 721,2m złoty, goodwill of 8 816,1m and other intangibles of 4 093,6m, equity, net profit of 1 517,1m and earnings per share, the 177,0m loss from discontinued operations, and the Mall Group acquisition and the disposal of the Slovenian and Croatian platforms) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedThe managed share reached 41% from 24% and already cut 2,9 percentage points off delivery cost growth.
    Allegro.eu Annual Consolidated Report 2025 - management report, business and operations (69 163,1m złoty of gross merchandise value with 68 282,4m third-party, 20,4 million active buyers, the Smart! programme past 7,5 million users in Poland at a relational net promoter score of 83, Allegro Pay financing 15,4% of purchases, Allegro One Box lockers, Ceneo and the PKO Bank Polski partnership) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe managed share reached 41% from 24% and already cut 2,9 percentage points off delivery cost growth.
    Allegro.eu Annual Consolidated Report 2025 - management report, business and operations (69 163,1m złoty of gross merchandise value with 68 282,4m third-party, 20,4 million active buyers, the Smart! programme past 7,5 million users in Poland at a relational net promoter score of 83, Allegro Pay financing 15,4% of purchases, Allegro One Box lockers, Ceneo and the PKO Bank Polski partnership) — FY2025 · publ. March 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 24, 2026