⚠ Grocery Is the Worst Margin in the BuildingHigh threat

Walmart (WMT) — threat to the moat

Walmart's greatest competitive strength and its weakest economics are the same category.

Walmart's greatest competitive strength and its weakest economics are the same category.

Walmart U.S., two years of change ($bn)+$21.3bnGrocery+$14.6bnHealth and wellness+$4.2bnOther+$1.1bnGeneral merchandiseChange in net sales from FY2024 to FY2026. Walmart U.S. operating margin: 5.2%.
The two categories that are growing are the two that earn least, and the one that earns most is static. The average is being held up by advertising.

Food is a low-margin, high-shrink, labour-intensive, refrigerated business. It requires the most staff hours per dollar of sales of anything in the store, spoils if it is not sold, and is priced against competitors who sell nothing else. It is now 59.1% of Walmart U.S. net sales1, and its share has been broadly held only because the segment as a whole has grown.

The mix arithmetic is the problem. General merchandise — the category that historically funded the low food prices — was $115,060 million in fiscal 2026 against $113,985 million two years earlier2. Health and wellness grew 26.7% over the same period and carries the thinnest margin of the three. So the two categories that are growing are the two that earn least, and the one that earns most is static.

Walmart U.S. reported a 5.2% operating margin in fiscal 20263. That number is an average of a profitable general merchandise business, a thin grocery business, a thinner pharmacy business and an advertising business with almost no cost at all. As the mix shifts, the average has to be defended by the smallest of those four.

There is a version of this that ends well: advertising and membership grow fast enough to offset the merchandise mix, which is roughly what happened in fiscal 2026. There is a version that does not, in which Walmart slowly becomes a grocer with a media business, at which point the right comparison is a supermarket's multiple rather than a platform's.

Watch the ratio of general merchandise to grocery at Walmart U.S.: 0.40 in fiscal 2026 against 0.43 two years earlier4. It has fallen in each of the last two years. If it keeps falling, the operating margin will follow.

References
  1. Moat Explorer calcIt is now 59.1% of Walmart U.S. net sales, and its share has been broadly held only because the segment as a whole has grown.
    Moat Explorer calculation from figures in Walmart's own filings: global eCommerce of about $150.4 billion (Walmart U.S. $99.6B + International $35.8B + Sam's Club $15.0B) against $120.9 billion, a $29.5 billion increase against a $31,875M rise in net sales ($706,413M against $674,538M), about 92%; Walmart U.S. selling floor of 698.7 million square feet (633,724 + 36,609 + 28,375 thousand) and net sales per store of $104.7 million ($482,975M over 4,611 stores); operating margin 4.18% ($29,825M/$713,163M) against 4.31% ($27,012M/$648,125M); net margin 3.07%; gross profit rate 24.2% ($171,018M/$706,413M); grocery 59.1% of Walmart U.S. net sales ($285,482M/$482,975M) against 59.8% ($264,210M/$441,817M) and grocery growth of 3.4%; general merchandise to grocery ratio 0.40 against 0.43; health and wellness +26.7% ($54,898M to $69,547M); payables less inventories $4,210M ($63,061M less $58,851M); rent 0.34% of revenue ($2,434M/$713,163M); capital expenditure 64% of operating cash flow ($26,642M/$41,565M); a 1% overrun on $147,943M of expense is $1,479M; eCommerce penetration 27.5% international ($35.8B/$130,423M) and 20.6% at Walmart U.S. ($99.6B/$482,975M); shareholder returns $15,587M ($7,507M dividends plus $8,080M repurchases) against $14,923M of free cash flow; Q2 FY2027 net income attributable down 9.4% ($6,366M against $7,026M); Walmart U.S. comparable sales of about 3.9% excluding the 125 basis point pharmacy headwind — FY2024-Q2 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedGeneral merchandise — the category that historically funded the low food prices — was $115,060 million in fiscal 2026 against $113,985 million two years earlier.
    Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total revenues $713,163M, net sales $706,413M, membership and other income $6,750M, cost of sales $535,395M, operating expenses $147,943M, operating income $29,825M, net income attributable to Walmart $21,893M, diluted EPS $2.73; balance sheet including inventories $58,851M, accounts payable $63,061M, property and equipment net $136,083M, accumulated depreciation $134,587M, depreciation and amortisation $14,203M; segment note; disaggregation of revenue by merchandise category and by market, and eCommerce net sales by segment) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
  3. Moat Explorer calcWalmart U.S. reported a 5.2% operating margin in fiscal 2026.
    Moat Explorer calculation from figures in Walmart's own filings: global eCommerce of about $150.4 billion (Walmart U.S. $99.6B + International $35.8B + Sam's Club $15.0B) against $120.9 billion, a $29.5 billion increase against a $31,875M rise in net sales ($706,413M against $674,538M), about 92%; Walmart U.S. selling floor of 698.7 million square feet (633,724 + 36,609 + 28,375 thousand) and net sales per store of $104.7 million ($482,975M over 4,611 stores); operating margin 4.18% ($29,825M/$713,163M) against 4.31% ($27,012M/$648,125M); net margin 3.07%; gross profit rate 24.2% ($171,018M/$706,413M); grocery 59.1% of Walmart U.S. net sales ($285,482M/$482,975M) against 59.8% ($264,210M/$441,817M) and grocery growth of 3.4%; general merchandise to grocery ratio 0.40 against 0.43; health and wellness +26.7% ($54,898M to $69,547M); payables less inventories $4,210M ($63,061M less $58,851M); rent 0.34% of revenue ($2,434M/$713,163M); capital expenditure 64% of operating cash flow ($26,642M/$41,565M); a 1% overrun on $147,943M of expense is $1,479M; eCommerce penetration 27.5% international ($35.8B/$130,423M) and 20.6% at Walmart U.S. ($99.6B/$482,975M); shareholder returns $15,587M ($7,507M dividends plus $8,080M repurchases) against $14,923M of free cash flow; Q2 FY2027 net income attributable down 9.4% ($6,366M against $7,026M); Walmart U.S. comparable sales of about 3.9% excluding the 125 basis point pharmacy headwind — FY2024-Q2 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  4. Moat Explorer calcWatch the ratio of general merchandise to grocery at Walmart U.S.: 0.40 in fiscal 2026 against 0.43 two years earlier.
    Moat Explorer calculation from figures in Walmart's own filings: global eCommerce of about $150.4 billion (Walmart U.S. $99.6B + International $35.8B + Sam's Club $15.0B) against $120.9 billion, a $29.5 billion increase against a $31,875M rise in net sales ($706,413M against $674,538M), about 92%; Walmart U.S. selling floor of 698.7 million square feet (633,724 + 36,609 + 28,375 thousand) and net sales per store of $104.7 million ($482,975M over 4,611 stores); operating margin 4.18% ($29,825M/$713,163M) against 4.31% ($27,012M/$648,125M); net margin 3.07%; gross profit rate 24.2% ($171,018M/$706,413M); grocery 59.1% of Walmart U.S. net sales ($285,482M/$482,975M) against 59.8% ($264,210M/$441,817M) and grocery growth of 3.4%; general merchandise to grocery ratio 0.40 against 0.43; health and wellness +26.7% ($54,898M to $69,547M); payables less inventories $4,210M ($63,061M less $58,851M); rent 0.34% of revenue ($2,434M/$713,163M); capital expenditure 64% of operating cash flow ($26,642M/$41,565M); a 1% overrun on $147,943M of expense is $1,479M; eCommerce penetration 27.5% international ($35.8B/$130,423M) and 20.6% at Walmart U.S. ($99.6B/$482,975M); shareholder returns $15,587M ($7,507M dividends plus $8,080M repurchases) against $14,923M of free cash flow; Q2 FY2027 net income attributable down 9.4% ($6,366M against $7,026M); Walmart U.S. comparable sales of about 3.9% excluding the 125 basis point pharmacy headwind — FY2024-Q2 FY2027 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 22, 2026