Amazon: Twenty Years and Still Not a GrocerNarrow moat
Walmart (WMT) — moat facet
Two companies converging on the same model from opposite ends, and stores are more expensive to build than websites.
The two largest retailers in the world have near-identical revenue and almost no overlap in how they get it. Walmart turned over $713.2 billion in fiscal 20261; Amazon is in the same neighbourhood. Amazon holds about 37.8% of American eCommerce and Walmart about 6.3%2. In groceries the positions reverse and the gap is wider: Walmart about 23.6% of the American market, Amazon and Whole Foods together about 2.8%3.
That second number is the more interesting one, because Amazon has been trying to fix it for twenty years with unlimited money. It bought Whole Foods in 2017, built Amazon Fresh, opened and then largely closed a chain of cashierless convenience stores, and it still sells less food than Kroger. The reason is structural. Fresh groceries are heavy, perishable, low-margin and bought weekly in a basket of forty items — which is the worst possible product for a network optimised to move a single parcel a long distance, and the best possible product for a building four miles from the customer's house.
Walmart's counter-attack on Amazon's ground is going better than Amazon's on Walmart's. Global eCommerce reached about $150.4 billion in fiscal 2026, up roughly 24%4, and Walmart now runs a marketplace, a fulfilment service and an advertising network that are recognisably the same set of businesses Amazon built. The difference in scale remains large: Amazon's advertising runs above $80 billion annualised against Walmart's $6.4 billion56.
The honest reading is that neither has broken the other's position and both are converging on the same model from opposite ends — Amazon adding physical proximity, Walmart adding digital reach. The advantage in that race belongs to whoever finds the missing half cheaper, and stores are more expensive to build than websites.
What would change the verdict is Amazon's grocery share. It has been stuck near three per cent for a decade. If it starts moving, the trip that anchors Walmart's whole model is in play.
Amazon is closing on Walmart's ground faster than the reverse. Walmart's eCommerce is growing quickly from about 6.3% of the American market against Amazon's 37.8%, and Amazon's advertising business is more than ten times Walmart's on a comparable retail base. Grocery is the wall that has held, and it is the only one.
And in groceries the positions reverse: Walmart about 23.6% against Amazon and Whole Foods at about 2.8%, after twenty years and Whole Foods. Watch Amazon's grocery share, which has been stuck near three per cent for a decade.
Source: U.S. e-commerce market share estimates ↗- ReportedWalmart turned over $713.2 billion in fiscal 2026; Amazon is in the same neighbourhood.Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total revenues $713,163M, net sales $706,413M, membership and other income $6,750M, cost of sales $535,395M, operating expenses $147,943M, operating income $29,825M, net income attributable to Walmart $21,893M, diluted EPS $2.73; balance sheet including inventories $58,851M, accounts payable $63,061M, property and equipment net $136,083M, accumulated depreciation $134,587M, depreciation and amortisation $14,203M; segment note; disaggregation of revenue by merchandise category and by market, and eCommerce net sales by segment) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
- Third-party estimateAmazon holds about 37.8% of American eCommerce and Walmart about 6.3%.U.S. e-commerce market share estimates — Amazon ~37.8% of U.S. e-commerce against Walmart ~6.3% — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
- Third-party estimateIn groceries the positions reverse and the gap is wider: Walmart about 23.6% of the American market, Amazon and Whole Foods together about 2.8%.5W Grocery Retail AI Visibility Index 2026 (PR Newswire) - U.S. grocery market share: Walmart 23.6%, Kroger 10.1%, Costco 9.2%, Albertsons 6.4%, Aldi 3.5%, Amazon/Whole Foods 2.8%; the top ten chains hold about 70% of the market — 2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedGlobal eCommerce reached about $150.4 billion in fiscal 2026, up roughly 24%, and Walmart now runs a marketplace, a fulfilment service and an advertising network that are recognisably the same set of businesses Amazon built.Walmart Form 10-K, fiscal year ended January 31, 2026 - consolidated financial statements and notes (total revenues $713,163M, net sales $706,413M, membership and other income $6,750M, cost of sales $535,395M, operating expenses $147,943M, operating income $29,825M, net income attributable to Walmart $21,893M, diluted EPS $2.73; balance sheet including inventories $58,851M, accounts payable $63,061M, property and equipment net $136,083M, accumulated depreciation $134,587M, depreciation and amortisation $14,203M; segment note; disaggregation of revenue by merchandise category and by market, and eCommerce net sales by segment) — FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) · publ. March 13, 2026 · source ↗
- Third-party estimateThe difference in scale remains large: Amazon's advertising runs above $80 billion annualised against Walmart's $6.4 billion.Amazon advertising revenue and market position — ~$68.6B in FY2025, running above $80B annualised on ~$19.8B quarterly (+26%); third-largest digital advertising company globally behind Google and Meta, ~11% of global digital ad spending — 2025-2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗
- ReportedThe difference in scale remains large: Amazon's advertising runs above $80 billion annualised against Walmart's $6.4 billion.Marketing Dive - Walmart global advertising revenue of nearly $6.4 billion in fiscal 2026, up 46%, with Walmart Connect U.S. up 41% in the fourth quarter; advertising and membership fees accounted for about a third of fourth-quarter operating income — FY2026 · publ. 2026 · source ↗