⚠ A Slow, Structural ErosionModerate threat

The trouble with a 44% share is arithmetic: it is far easier to lose a point than to gain one. PZU's life dominance was built in an era when employer group cover flowed almost automatically to the national champion, and that era is slowly ending. Nimbler life insurers and bancassurance rivals court the same corporate clients with sharper products and digital enrolment, and each large employer that switches takes a slice of the stickiest, highest-margin book with it.

None of this is a cliff — group life is sticky precisely because it is slow to move — but the same slowness works against it: a franchise that took decades to build erodes over decades too, quietly, a fraction of a point a year. The risk is not a collapse but a long, grinding drift downward that the headline numbers barely register until a good deal of the lead has gone. Watch the market-share line — the ~44% life figure specifically¹ — not any single quarter.