⚠ The Other Forty-Five Per Cent Belongs to a Rival That Is Fixing ItselfModerate threat

GE Aerospace (GE) — threat to the moat

The forty-five per cent belongs to a rival with a fixable problem and every reason to fix it.

Every point of A320neo share that GE Aerospace does not hold is held by a company with the resources, the certification and the customer relationships to take more of it.

What a dual-source aircraft costs both makersThe selectioncompeted on equipment priceThe equipment marginalready negative, about -1.8% in 2025The consequencecompetition deepens the discountGE Aerospace’s answerLEAP-1B durability kit, ~2x time-on-wingCES orders, first half 2026$30,263m, up 52%Share won from here is aftermarket owned in the 2040s.
A competitor that fixes a durability problem arrives at the next selection with a better efficiency argument.

The geared turbofan is a genuinely different architecture, and its difficulties on entry into service were the most visible engine problem of the last decade. Those difficulties are the reason CFM's share is above fifty-five per cent rather than nearer half1. They are not permanent. An engine maker that fixes a durability problem arrives at the next selection with a product that is, on paper, more efficient, and with an installed base of its own that generates the same kind of aftermarket annuity GE Aerospace enjoys.

The competitive dynamic on a dual-source aircraft is also worse for both parties than a sole-source one. Two makers bidding for the same airline's order compete on the equipment price — which, given that equipment already carries a negative gross margin2, comes straight out of the depth of the discount and therefore out of the eventual return on the aftermarket.

GE Aerospace's structural defences are the ones that apply to the whole company: an installed base of roughly 50,000 commercial engines3, an aftermarket network, and a durability programme aimed squarely at the thing that decides reputation. Its commercial defence is the order book, which in the first half of 2026 grew fifty-two per cent in Commercial Engines & Services orders4.

Share of new narrowbody selections is what decides this, and GE Aerospace does not publish it. The public proxy is the delivery ratio: 1,802 LEAP engines of 2,386 commercial engines in 20255. A sustained fall in that ratio would be the first visible sign that a rival is winning the selections.

References
  1. Third-party estimateThose difficulties are the reason CFM's share is above fifty-five per cent rather than nearer half.
    Aviation and market coverage of GE Aerospace's narrowbody position and delivery ramp - the LEAP as the exclusive powerplant on the Boeing 737 MAX and holding more than 55% of the Airbus A320neo family through the CFM joint venture, the target of about 2,000 LEAP deliveries in 2026, first-half deliveries up 41%, and CFM RISE described as a technology demonstrator rather than a product for sale. — 2026 · publ. August 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedTwo makers bidding for the same airline's order compete on the equipment price — which, given that equipment already carries a negative gross margin, comes straight out of the depth of the discount and therefore out of the eventual return on the aftermarket.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - consolidated financial statements — statement of operations including sales of equipment, sales of services, insurance revenue and their respective costs; statement of financial position including insurance liabilities and annuity benefits, shareholders' equity, property plant and equipment and shares outstanding; and the statement of cash flows. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedGE Aerospace's structural defences are the ones that apply to the whole company: an installed base of roughly 50,000 commercial engines, an aftermarket network, and a durability programme aimed squarely at the thing that decides reputation.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 general and Item 2 Properties — the installed base of approximately 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines and the statement that it supports an aftermarket representing approximately 70% of revenue, the FLIGHT DECK operating model, customers in approximately 120 countries, the facility count, human capital and employee numbers, the intellectual property discussion, the research and development table splitting company-funded from customer- and partner-funded spending, and the engine testing milestones. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIts commercial defence is the order book, which in the first half of 2026 grew fifty-two per cent in Commercial Engines & Services orders.
    GE Aerospace second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K of July 16, 2026) — total company GAAP and non-GAAP results, segment revenue, orders and operating profit, free cash flow, the raised full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted revenue growth, operating profit, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow, the LEAP-1B durability kit certification, the XA102 and GE426 defence programmes, the NASA hybrid-electric ground tests, and the chief executive's commentary. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe public proxy is the delivery ratio: 1,802 LEAP engines of 2,386 commercial engines in 2025.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026