⚠ Seventy Per Cent of Revenue Depends on Somebody Else FlyingHigh threat

GE Aerospace (GE) — threat to the moat

Seventy per cent of the revenue is triggered by an event GE Aerospace does not schedule.

The aftermarket represents approximately seventy per cent of GE Aerospace's revenue1, and every dollar of it is triggered by an event the company does not schedule: an aircraft accumulating enough hours or cycles to need work.

What triggers the aftermarketGlobal departures growth 20253%Internal shop visit revenue 202524%Internal shop visit rev, H1 202630%Aftermarket share of revenue~70%GE Aerospace cannot sell more overhauls; it can only be ready when they arrive.
Seventy per cent of the revenue is triggered by an event the company does not schedule.

That makes the moat unusually durable and unusually passive. GE Aerospace cannot sell more overhauls. It can only be ready when they arrive, which is why the 2025 and 2026 story has been about capacity and material supply rather than demand — material input from priority suppliers rose double digits sequentially and year over year, contributing to commercial services revenue up thirty-two per cent in the first half of 2026 with record internal shop visit output2.

The demand side is a macro variable. Global departures grew three per cent in 20253. Air travel is cyclical, exposed to fuel prices, visa regimes, regional conflict and recession, and it was interrupted in living memory by a pandemic.

The company is candid about the near-term version. It is monitoring the conflict in the Middle East and the potential impact on the commercial aerospace industry, including lower utilisation and increased prices, with possible effects including lower volume related to shop visits, spare parts and spare engines, lower profitability of long-term contracts and customer credit implications4. It also notes the conflict did not materially affect operations in the first half of 20265.

The position is protected because the revenue is deferred rather than lost. An overhaul postponed is an overhaul that still happens, and the contracted backlog of $163,029 million does not shrink because a year was difficult6.

Set internal shop visit revenue growth beside global departures growth. Twenty-four per cent against three per cent in 20257 is a catch-up cycle, not a run rate. When the two converge, the aftermarket becomes a three-per-cent-a-year business with a very wide moat around it.

References
  1. ReportedThe aftermarket represents approximately seventy per cent of GE Aerospace's revenue, and every dollar of it is triggered by an event the company does not schedule: an aircraft accumulating enough hours or cycles to need work.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Item 1 Business — segment descriptions for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, the CFM International 50-50 non-consolidated joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines, the commercial engine platforms (LEAP, CFM56, GEnx, GE9X, CF6, GE90), the defence platforms (F110, F404, F414, T408, T700, T901, LM2500), the Propulsion & Additive Technologies brands, the CFM RISE programme, the customer description including airframers and sole-source positions, and the segment revenue and services shares. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  2. ReportedIt can only be ready when they arrive, which is why the 2025 and 2026 story has been about capacity and material supply rather than demand — material input from priority suppliers rose double digits sequentially and year over year, contributing to commercial services revenue up thirty-two per cent in the first half of 2026 with record internal shop visit output.
    GE Aerospace second-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K of July 16, 2026) — total company GAAP and non-GAAP results, segment revenue, orders and operating profit, free cash flow, the raised full-year 2026 guidance for adjusted revenue growth, operating profit, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow, the LEAP-1B durability kit certification, the XA102 and GE426 defence programmes, the NASA hybrid-electric ground tests, and the chief executive's commentary. — Q2 2026 · publ. 16 July 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedGlobal departures grew three per cent in 2025.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedIt is monitoring the conflict in the Middle East and the potential impact on the commercial aerospace industry, including lower utilisation and increased prices, with possible effects including lower volume related to shop visits, spare parts and spare engines, lower profitability of long-term contracts and customer credit implications.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Management's Discussion and Analysis — consolidated revenue, profit and earnings per share, the segment results for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the remaining performance obligation and its equipment and services split, the supply chain, tariff and Middle East discussions, and the planned $1 billion US manufacturing investment and 5,000 US hires. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedIt also notes the conflict did not materially affect operations in the first half of 2026.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Management's Discussion and Analysis — consolidated revenue, profit and earnings per share, the segment results for Commercial Engines & Services and Defense & Propulsion Technologies, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the remaining performance obligation and its equipment and services split, the supply chain, tariff and Middle East discussions, and the planned $1 billion US manufacturing investment and 5,000 US hires. — Q2 2026 · publ. July 2026 · source ↗
  6. ReportedAn overhaul postponed is an overhaul that still happens, and the contracted backlog of $163,029 million does not shrink because a year was difficult.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Management's Discussion and Analysis — consolidated results, profit and operating profit margins, adjusted earnings per share, total remaining performance obligation and its year-on-year movement, cash flow from operations and free cash flow, the share repurchase programme, borrowings and the financing-arrangement discussion. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
  7. ReportedTwenty-four per cent against three per cent in 2025 is a catch-up cycle, not a run rate.
    GE Aerospace Form 10-K, FY2025 - Segment Operations — Commercial Engines & Services: segment revenue, profit and margin, commercial engine and LEAP unit deliveries, internal shop visit revenue growth, the CES remaining performance obligation, the 2025 engine commitments from Qatar Airways, Emirates, International Airlines Group, ANA Holdings, Malaysia Aviation Group, Korean Air, Cathay Pacific and Pegasus, and commercial departures growth. — FY2025 · publ. January 2026 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026